953
FXUS64 KOUN 011705
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across northern into
central Oklahoma early this morning as low-level jet maintains warm
advection atop a southward sinking outflow boundary. The current
expectation is that convection will tend to wane through the morning
as forcing weakens. The effect, if any, this outflow boundary may
have on convective development later today is not entirely clear,
but the current expectation is that outflow will wash out through
the day with the main focus for convection being the dryline just
to the west of our area by late afternoon.

The environment ahead of the dryline will be fairly similar to
yesterday, with moderate to strong instability but rather modest
bulk shear values around 30-35 kts. As we saw yesterday, this
should still be sufficient for supercell development with all
severe hazards possible. Storm coverage will likely be greater
today out west as a weak shortwave provides more background
ascent, with convection expected to develop upscale into clusters
or line segments during the evening and progress eastward across
the area. The severe threat appears to diminish with eastward
extent as instability wanes later into the evening and overnight
period.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

By Thursday a cold front is expected to progress south and eastward
across the area. With an unstable airmass in place ahead of the
boundary, strong to severe storms will be possible once again. The
front will clear the area Thursday night but will quickly return
northward during the day on Friday, bringing renewed chances for at
least scattered thunderstorm development. Models are also now
showing a second cold front moving into northern and western
Oklahoma very late Friday night, with a complex of storms possible
here.

Storm chances then continue Saturday and Sunday as a moist and
unstable airmass remains in place and at least modest southwesterly
flow is maintained aloft. There is some signal for a potentially
more significant trough ejection into the plains on Monday, but
models disagree on timing and location of any attendant severe
risk at this range.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Southerly winds will continue through the remainder of the
period. Thunderstorms are expected to form along a dryline in
western Oklahoma late this afternoon and evening. These storms are
expected to move eastward, with a low probability of affecting
the rest of the TAF sites. Stratus will move in by tomorrow
morning, affecting each site.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  78  59  77 /  40  80  40  20
Hobart OK         61  82  57  77 /  60  40  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  64  83  62  78 /  60  50  40  20
Gage OK           58  78  49  76 /  30  30  20  20
Ponca City OK     64  76  55  76 /  40  90  40  20
Durant OK         65  79  64  81 /  70  80  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...13