000
FXUS64 KOUN 160438
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1138 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
A COMPLEX AND MESSY AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD IS ON TAP. A LARGE
UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...PROVIDING MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH MID AND HIGH OVERCAST SKIES. WITH PERSISTENT
RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY...AND ABUNDANT NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SPORADIC MVFR AND
IFR CIGS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH
AROUND 17Z TO 18Z...WHEN CIGS WILL GENERALLY RETURN TO VFR AND FOG
WILL CLEAR. EXPECT ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...TAPERING OFF THROUGH AROUND 10Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

AVIATION... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING BENEATH UPPER LOW
DRIFTING NEWD. MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL EXTEND THROUGH CENTRAL OK
INTO N TX AND WILL LEAVE WESTERN SITES DRY. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AND ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. SOME SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN EASTERN PARTS OF OF THE FA THURSDAY. DESPITE THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO WARM/HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND... WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP JUST WEST OR IN THE
FA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE INTO AND REMAIN IN THE FA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN NEAR THE FRONT AND DRYLINE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  81  65  84 /  60  10  10  10
HOBART OK         62  85  65  94 /  30  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  86  67  95 /  50  10  10  10
GAGE OK           58  86  63  93 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     62  80  64  81 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         62  78  67  82 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84