Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 222300
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
500 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.AVIATION...
Will be a bit optimistic and have a period overnight with VFR
ceilings, but at the same time could be some fog development that
may put visibilities in the MVFR/IFR categories. Have VFR
conditions then for a good part of the day on Friday before
moisture moves back north into the area with redevelopment of MVFR
conditions and the chance of rain as far north as OKC/OUN and the
chance of thunder late in the forecast at LAW/SPS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast focus is on persistent rainfall, likely heavy,
across far south central and southeastern Oklahoma, beginning
tomorrow and continuing through Saturday, with rain likely coming in
two rounds.

This afternoon, pockets of freezing rain and freezing drizzle will
persist across southern into central Oklahoma. Temperatures will
continue to slowly rise through the afternoon and into the evening.
Even in areas where temperatures continue to hover around 32F
(freezing), rainfall has helped slightly improve road conditions,
per the reports we`ve received today. Isolated thunder will remain
possible through the afternoon and evening with this lingering
activity.

Overnight, temperatures are expected to remain just above freezing
for most of the night, with a one or two hours at or just below
freezing in the morning. So, secondary roads may still be slick and
hazardous, with slick spots on primary roads, especially across
those regions that received the most precipitation over the past two
days.

Through Friday, with a large western trough pivoting over the inter-
mountain west, a focused area of isentropic ascent will develop in
concert with a weak surface trough over north Texas into south
central and southeastern Oklahoma. In response, shower and isolated
thunder chances will increase along the Red River/Texoma region
through the morning hours. Short to mid-range guidance remains in
good agreement, with a focused area of moderate, persistent rainfall
developing along an axis from north Texas and across southeastern
Oklahoma up on the southern reaches of the Ozark Plateau/Boston
Mountains. The greatest rainfall chances and amounts will be focused
through Bryan and Atoka counties, in our area, Friday afternoon into
late Friday night. Up to 2 inches, widespread is possible through
early Saturday across southeastern Oklahoma.

There will likely be a lull in precipitation chances early Saturday
morning, briefly, before a second round of showers and thunderstorms
move through south central and southeastern Oklahoma Saturday
Morning and linger through the afternoon. This is being driven by
the push of the western trough across the Four Corners, and another
focus of isentropic ascent over north Texas into southeastern
Oklahoma. Up to an additional inch to maybe an inch and a half of
rainfall, widespread is possible.

In response to the previous rainfall that`s occured across
southeastern Oklahoma, over the past few days, and two rounds of
moderate rainfall expected, up to 3 inches may fall across a wide
area of southeastern Oklahoma, with locally higher amounts possible,
a Flood Watch for Flash Flooding has been issued for Bryan and Atoka
counties. An expansion of this watch may be possible, by later
shifts.

Beyond Saturday, Sunday will start a period of warmer and drier
conditions, with highs Sunday through midweek in the 60s for most.
The next chance of rainfall will arrive Tuesday afternoon and
evening through Wednesday.

Fire Weather...
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected to
develop Saturday afternoon behind the exiting surface boundary
across western Oklahoma and western north Texas, with breezy west
and southwest winds. Drought conditions will continue, even with the
latest wintry precipitation. Warm and breezy conditions on Sunday
will result in another afternoon of elevated fire weather conditions
across western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  31  46  41  60 /  10  50  50  50
Hobart OK         30  46  38  61 /   0  30  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  32  45  43  64 /   0  70  40  50
Gage OK           28  47  35  55 /   0   0  30  10
Ponca City OK     30  46  38  53 /  10  20  50  50
Durant OK         39  49  48  65 /  30  90  70  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     OKZ048-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

30/25/01


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