Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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786
FXUS64 KOUN 162332
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
532 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings and stratus should persist tonight in northern
Oklahoma, and at least according to NAM MOS, may redevelop farther
south. Even with the NAM guidance, there seems to be a decent
gradient in where MVFR (or lower) ceilings and visibilities will
develop - less likely at KOUN than KOKC, and KHBR than KCSM. But
the NAM MOS is an outlier in the guidance suite. Have maintained
the mention of restricted visibility in BR and scattered stratus
in some areas, but not nearly as aggressively as the NAM MOS would
suggest. Will watch trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
No major weather concerns are expected over the next
several days.

Tonight, seasonably cool and dry weather can be expected with some
lingering cloud cover, mainly over northern Oklahoma. Used a blend
of guidance for lows which should close to average. Cannot
completely rule out some light fog/light freezing fog late
tonight into Tuesday morning as the boundary layer remains moist
from heavy precipitation over the weekend. However, a light
northwest wind which is forecast to bring a slow decrease in
surface dewpoints throughout the night does not support widespread
or significant fog/freezing fog formation. Thus, did not mention.

On Tuesday, variable cloud cover can be expected. The increase in
mid level moisture may be deep enough for some light rain or
sprinkles by late afternoon near and south the Red River, so added
mention. Seasonable highs can be expected, which will continue to
melt ice cover across western and northwestern Oklahoma.

Tuesday night, increased rain chances significantly across
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas as latest models have
been depicting a wetter solution from a mid level disturbance
moving through the area. Any rainfall is expected to be light
with the deepest moisture well south and east of Oklahoma and
north Texas. Warm model temperature profiles suggested that
precipitation should be in liquid form where it occurs mainly
south of I-40. Temperatures profiles could perhaps be just cold
enough to support light sleet or perhaps light freezing rain in
northern Oklahoma if moisture were to be deep enough to support
precipitation in these locations. Did not mention any wintry
precipitation types for now.

Wednesday through next Monday, overall, warmer than average
temperatures can be expected with dry conditions most days. A
storm system may bring additional precipitation chances, mainly in
the form of rain, as well as some thunder, by Saturday and
Sunday, though confidence is moderate at best.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  31  50  36  55 /   0   0  20  10
Hobart OK         30  51  36  57 /   0   0  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  32  53  37  56 /   0  10  50  10
Gage OK           27  47  32  56 /   0   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     31  47  31  55 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         38  53  40  53 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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