Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOUN 221142
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL FORM AT ALL SITES BY 15Z.
THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHERE A FEW SITES MAY DROP TO LIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS THIS IS UNLIKELY.

AREA OF RA/TSRA WILL AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 17Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION
EXCEPT NEAR KPNC...KWWR...AND KGAG AFTER 10Z WHERE CHANCES OF
OCCURRENCE ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LATEST MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...DEPICTED HIGHER
QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS...GENERALLY 1 TO 4 INCHES...
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SO BELIEVE THE FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE
WATCH APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TODAY...BATCH OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING...
BRINGING GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL. DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY...NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OR FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
MAY BE TO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS RAIN. BELIEVE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO CLOUD COVER...WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. THE TRUE SURFACE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE. KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW TONIGHT IN THESE
LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS SOME FOG ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL INCREASE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE A
SIGNAL FROM THE MODELS THAT NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY HAVE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE MORNING...SPREADING TO THE I-44
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH NEARLY 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS. VERY
HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND WOULD
ONLY INCREASE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
BELIEVE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...
LOCATIONS...AND STORM MODE REMAIN LOW. MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL
DICTATE WHAT OCCURS. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR INCLUDING THE LOW LEVELS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW TORNADO THREAT. SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR. STILL BELIEVE FLOODING AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WHAT HAPPENS ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE
A BIG INFLUENCE ON WHAT OCCURS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
MAY STABILIZE THE AIR. HOWEVER...IF SOME CLEARING AND
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. CAPPING WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK. SHEAR WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
PERHAPS MORE UNSTABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE MANY
MORE DRY HOURS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO WET ONES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS MOST DAYS. INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD DECREASE STORM COVERAGE. ANY
STORM WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  60  76  63 /  90  40  90  90
HOBART OK         65  60  73  61 /  70  50  90  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  63  79  64 /  90  30  90  90
GAGE OK           63  57  68  58 /  50  60  90  30
PONCA CITY OK     61  58  70  63 /  90  60  90  80
DURANT OK         69  61  78  65 /  70  20  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/17/17


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.