Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 292036
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
336 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

CURRENTLY... STILL HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A SLIGHT...
EMPHASIS ON SLIGHT... REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT IS ON ITS WAY IN THE
FORM OF A SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER SRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES... SLIGHTLY
NUDGING INTO FAR NWRN OK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. FURTHER SOUTH A FEW
ISOLATED UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG A WEAK 700 OR 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SFC LOW WITHIN THE
SFC WIND FIELD. A FINE LINE IS VISIBLE ON KVNX... WHICH MAY BE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ACTUAL FRONT AND MORE LIKELY OUTFLOW FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION. WITH THAT SAID... EXPECT CONTINUED SCT/ISO
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS N/NW OK THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
COVERAGE OF PRECIP REMAINS A CHALLENGE... THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY GOOD FOR SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE PRECIP OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW... A CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS WRN AND NRN OK. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONT SPLITTING OK W-E THU... TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
ACROSS THE NRN HALF... IN THE UPPER 80S. HIGHS ACROSS SRN OK/TEXOMA
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. A FEW SITES ACROSS
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK WILL APPROACH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S.
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS WILL BE
MARGINAL AT BEST AND CONFINED TO POCKETS OF S CENTRAL/SERN OK.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN H500
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES WILL BE BEST ON FRI AS A
WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE SLIDES SE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. LOW CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK... WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SLOWLY PICKING BACK UP MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  90  72  89 /  20  40  30  40
HOBART OK         74  93  72  91 /  20  30  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  96  76  93 /   0  20  10  40
GAGE OK           69  85  68  88 /  40  40  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     72  85  69  90 /  40  40  20  20
DURANT OK         76  98  75  93 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ026-030>032-042-
     043-047-048-051-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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