Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 190138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         38  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           32  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



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