Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 222336
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
636 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and south winds will persist through the day
Saturday. Upper level high pressure remains stationary over the
southern plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Hot weather is expected to continue through the weekend. The 599
dam 500 mb ridge is expected to slowly retrograde to west the next
few days. Even so, low-level thermal fields remain quite warm
through Sunday, with 850 mb temps ranging from 25-31C. Therefore,
expect temperatures in the upper 90s to the low 100s at least
through Sunday. Opted to expand the heat advisory across southern
Oklahoma for Saturday, based on current heat index temperatures
reaching 105F today and forecast values near 105F tomorrow.

Starting late Sunday into Monday, shortwave troughs embedded
within the northern stream may propagate cold fronts across
Kansas. Showers and storms that develop along these fronts may
approach northern Oklahoma with the weak northerly flow aloft.
Thunderstorm chances through early week will be highly dependent
on where remnant convective/effective cold front boundaries set
up.

Another feature that may increase the chance of rain, especially
across across southeast Oklahoma, is a retrograding mid/upper-
level low. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate this low will propagate
westward along the Gulf Coast into Texas early next week.

Bottom line is expect slightly cooler, more seasonable temperatures
next week with some isolated to scattered showers/storms. Until
then, the heat continues.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76 101  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         76 103  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  78 103  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           74 103  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     77 102  78 100 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         78 100  79  99 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

25/09/09



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