Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

000
FXUS64 KOUN 231736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 23/18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY SUBSIDE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT ALL SITES BY MID-MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...NEAR KGAG AND KWWR...AROUND SUNRISE. ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTIONS IN TAFS.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM NEVADA TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT LOWER LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASE WILL ACCELERATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
PROXIMITY OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF THIS LOW BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE
NORTHERN PART OF OKLAHOMA, BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR THERE BRINGS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM PASSES MONDAY. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
APPROACHING OKLAHOMA WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS TO BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF NEXT
WEEK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. GIVEN MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES, IT
APPEARS THE DRYLINE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THERE OR OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN FORECASTING STRONG SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR TUESDAY
WHEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NUMEROUS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EXIT WEDNESDAY WITH RESIDUAL
THUNDERSTORMS OR RAIN LEAVING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BY LATE FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY A SIMILAR SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WITH LOWER LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  58  79  61 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         80  58  81  58 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  58  82  62 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           82  59  85  53 /   0  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     81  59  80  60 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         81  58  79  63 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/10/10



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.