Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 300827
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW OK THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DECIDED TO INCLUDE AN ISOLATED MENTION OF TS ACROSS WESTERN N TX
WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND SFC CONVERGENCE MAY BE
PRESENT TO SUPPORT THEM. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH OUT OF OUR REGION AFTER SUNSET.

DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE A PORTION OF THE FREEZE WATCH FOR
SATURDAY MORNING FOR GRANT...KAY...NOBLE...AND PAYNE COUNTIES
WHERE THE DRIEST AIR IS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF
FROST FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL OK AS WELL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND THEN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION MONDAY...AS A POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL SUGGESTING A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE SW. WILL CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE (LEANING CLOSER
TOWARD THE GFSENS MEAN) BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND ECMWF.
REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY POPS WILL BE REASONABLE BY
TUES AM FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  45  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         75  43  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  47  65  34 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  37  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     73  42  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         77  49  64  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005-006-011-012-017>019-023>032.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ007-008-
     013-020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03



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