Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 190903
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
403 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A couple of showers and storms have developed across SE KS early
this morning ahead of a mid level speed max/subtle shortwave
trough. Went ahead and put some SChc PoPs in for the NE but
definitely do not expect widespread convection, and most should
shift eastward as the jet max does the same. Later this
afternoon, it will be difficult to determine where diurnal showers
and storms develop. Best chances appear to be SW within and just
north of mid level moisture plume, and NE within subtle WAA. A few
showers and storms may maintain across the SE overnight. Generally,
it will be hot and sticky today with heat indices exceeding 105
across central OK. A heat advisory has been issued.

Another hot day is expected tomorrow but headlines shouldn`t be
needed as max heat index values remain below 105. Isolated to
widely scattered PoPs are expected within deeper moisture plume
across the NW/W Sun on the western periphery of the ridge. This
trend will continue Mon, with some increase in coverage, as a mid
level shortwave trough moves out of the Rockies towards the
central plains. The highest precip chances still appear to arrive
mid week with an unseasonably stout cold front. There are still
uncertainties with regards to timing. The ECMWF is far more
aggressive since it depicts a deeper trough impacting the upper
midwest. Regardless, cooler temps will arrive by Wed and persist
through the weekend as a ~1022 sfc high settles in over the
midwest!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  97  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
Hobart OK         99  76  97  74 /  10  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  99  76  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           98  72  95  72 /  10  10  20  20
Ponca City OK     98  75  97  74 /  20  10  10  10
Durant OK         96  75  95  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/03



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