Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 270943
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
343 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH TODAY AND MAY BECOME A
LITTLE BIT BREEZY IN NW OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WARM
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE GFS SINCE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO SLOW IN THE TIMING OF SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASSES. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COLD AIR TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND 40S MANY PLACES ON MONDAY.

MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AFTER MONDAY BUT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COMPLETELY CHANGED THINKING FROM A FEW DAYS
AGO WHEN THEY HAD A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER FROM EACH OTHER
ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TUES AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. SINCE
THIS IS A BIG CHANGE IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WON`T BITE OFF
ON IT YET AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT LATER RUNS DO... SO HAVE KEPT SOME
LOW POPS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LATE NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  38  64  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         55  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  38  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  35  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  37  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         56  37  65  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25


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