Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 261559
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1059 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016
This afternoon promises weaker instability and less vertical wind
shear than yesterday. However, there are strong indications that
scattered convection will develop again this afternoon. The most
likely area for development is generally the eastern and northern
portions of our forecast area. Both instability and shear diminish
quickly toward evening, and the convection will shift north along
with a retreating weak surface front.
The current forecast appears to handle all this well, and no
changes are planned for this morning.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/
Most of the convection has exited the area and the chance of
additional storms at TAF sites remains too low to mention at this
time. Otherwise, mainly expect VFR conditions expected with light
south to southeast winds.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/
Showers and thunderstorms continues to push through much of
western and northern Oklahoma early this morning and should
continue to push off toward the northeast as a shortwave in the
mid levels moves through the area. At the surface, a synoptic
surface boundary is still present, however it has become masked
by outflow from the convection, which currently is located near
Models lift effective surface boundary northward during the
day today, however this could be slowed by the morning
convection. Still expect boundary to lift to near or just north
of the Oklahoma Kansas border during the afternoon hours. This
boundary will once again be the main focus for redevelop of
convection later today. Sufficient instability and wind shear
remain in place for a few strong to severe storms, mainly across
northern Oklahoma this afternoon into the early evening hours.
Heavy rain will remain possible, however main focus for this will
be north of the area and do not anticipate extending the flood
watch beyond 12z this morning.
Another area to watch today will be across southeast Oklahoma.
A westward moving shear axis is forecast to move from western
Arkansas and eastern Texas westward into eastern Oklahoma. This
may lead to another area of more widespread showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon across east/southeast Oklahoma.
Beyond today, mid level flow weakens over the Southern Plains and
we become squeezed between better southwest flow just to our
northwest and developing easterly flow, which may impact parts of
southern and southeastern parts of the area. Although these two
areas appear to have the best chance for convection each day from
this week end into next week. Abundant moisture will remain in
place that the entire area will continue to have the potential to
see showers/thunderstorms each day. Mush of which will be driven
by small scale features that are difficult to forecast or
anticipate very far into the future.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 90 70 91 70 / 20 10 20 10
Hobart OK 91 70 93 70 / 10 10 20 20
Wichita Falls TX 92 71 94 71 / 20 10 20 10
Gage OK 85 66 91 67 / 30 20 20 30
Ponca City OK 88 70 91 71 / 30 30 30 30
Durant OK 89 71 92 71 / 40 20 30 10