000
FXUS64 KOUN 190239
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
938 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

DISCUSSION... NO SIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND MAY MAKE IT INTO NRN/WRN
PARTS OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE IN FAR NW OK WHERE LLJ WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

.AVIATION...
STORMS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
OKLAHOMA... ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR STORMS AT KGAG
AND KWWR LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE AT KSPS AND
KLAW. NEITHER SCENARIO HAS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THIS SET OF TAFS. RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS OK AND
N TX UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL MIDWEST THROUGH NE OK. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
REMNANT MCV CONTINUE TO SPAWN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE TX AND INTO
NORTHERN LA. ADDITIONAL MOIST CONVECTION IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS N
CENTRAL KS AND THE ROCKIES OF CO AND NORTHERN NM ALONG A SFC
TROUGH. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFT/EARLY THIS EVE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. ITS UNCLEAR WHETHER AN MCS
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE HIGH PLAINS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...OR HOW MUCH COVERAGE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THINK AT LEAST LOW CHC
POPS ARE REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON THE FRINGE OF THE
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ALSO
INTRODUCED ISO T FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGH 12-18Z TOMORROW
MORNING AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL COLD POCKET MAY SUPPORT SUCH OVER OUR AREA. SUBSIDENCE WILL
THEN QUICKLY FOLLOW BY MID DAY WED THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

AN ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED WITHIN
THE SW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY EARLY WED
AFTERNOON AND LATE WED NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG A LEE SFC TROUGH NEAR EASTERN CO AND THE
PANHANDLES. POPS APPEAR MORE LIKELY (HIGH CHC) ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OK BY LATE WED NIGH AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS
FEATURE ROUNDS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...AND SLIGHT CHCS MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID DAY THURS ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST/NE HALF OF
OUR FA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MOST
POPS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO WESTERN AND NW OK ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF IT WHERE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE MID
LEVEL SW FLOW ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARMING TREND
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND CONSIDERING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STRENGTHENING RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  86  69  90 /  10  20  20  10
HOBART OK         68  90  71  96 /  10  20  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  91  73  96 /  10  10  20  10
GAGE OK           66  87  69  94 /  30  30  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     67  87  70  90 /  10  20  40  20
DURANT OK         68  88  70  92 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$