Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 010847
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
THESE SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS... MOVING SOUTHEAST... BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN... SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND
CHANCE POPS IN TIME AND SPACE FOR THIS SCENARIO THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

A SIMILAR SITUATION SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AS SOME HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY MAY MAKE A RUN AT WESTERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WAA PATTERN SET UP
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL AGAIN AID IN THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
CONVECTION.

UPPER RIDGE CONT TO TRY AND BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MID TO LATE WEEK.
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS.
HOWEVER... MODELS CONT TO BRING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE
FLOW WHICH CONT TO TRY AND BEAT THE RIDGE DOWN. THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. INITIALLY THESE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND
A SURFACE FRONT MAKES SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TOWARD AND INTO THE
AREA AS THE MODELS TRY AN DEVELOP AN EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  63  83  66 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         80  62  86  64 /  30  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  64  87  66 /  10  20  10   0
GAGE OK           81  62  87  63 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  61  82  66 /  20   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  63  83  65 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30



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