Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 191134
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS BEFORE 18Z...THEN HIGHER
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

BR/FG WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z
ACROSS THE AREA. UPDATED TAFS TO REFLECT THESE LOWER CONDITIONS.
THINK THE WORST CONDITIONS...WHERE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY GO BELOW
MINIMUMS...WILL OCCUR NEAR KOKC... KOUN...KPNC...AND KHBR THROUGH
15Z. OTHER SITES WILL MAINLY BE MVFR.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES 14-18Z. THINK ALL
SITES WILL BE VFR BY 18Z.

MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE ISO-NUM SHRA MAY
OCCUR.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECASTING RAIN POSSIBILITIES AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAINS CHALLENGING.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY TO
DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODELS CAN PERFORM POORLY IN WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...SUCH AS THE ONGOING NEARBY WEATHER PATTERN. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER WEST EACH MODEL RUN...STAYING MAINLY OVER
WEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT...DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS
OF FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THINKING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FARTHER WEST THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAINS
THIS WEEKEND ARE BECOMING LESS LIKELY.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. ANY FOG WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

REST OF TODAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST PLACES DUE TO SUFFICIENT
CAPPING...EXCEPT IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...WEST OF A GAGE TO WICHITA FALLS LINE WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL EXIST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THESE AREA. GENERALLY...PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST OF A CLINTON TO DURANT LINE WHERE THICKER HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR...KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
EAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WOULD MOVE SLOWLY AND COULD PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THINK RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED NORTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO
DURANT LINE WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. HIGHS WERE INCREASED
IN MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO LESS RAIN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER OR STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MORE SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES...SO HIGHS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WIDESPREAD RAINS
REMAIN UNLIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERALL...INCREASED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE LACK OF NEARBY COOLER AIR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  88  67 /   0  10  30  20
HOBART OK         87  70  84  68 /  10  40  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  71  84  69 /  10  30  50  30
GAGE OK           87  66  86  63 /  10  40  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  90  65 /   0  10  20  20
DURANT OK         88  71  88  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17



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