Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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824
FXUS64 KOUN 290828
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
328 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms continue to intensify and spread southward early
this morning near the KS/OK border along an ~850 mb baroclinic
zone. Precip loading and high DCAPE could result in some severe
wind gusts, along with localized flooding as storms train. This
activity is likely to continue through the early afternoon hours
as a mid to upper shortwave trough progresses across the central
plains and into the central mid west with height falls accompanying
it. Later this afternoon, moist convection appears it will develop
south of any decaying precip over NE OK along a reinforced surface
surface boundary extending NW to SE from around GAG/WRR...to
OKC...to perhaps as far SE as ADH. These storms could become
strong to severe with damaging wind gusts the main threat. Late
tonight through early Saturday morning, a complex appeada.rs
possible across central and north central OK as another mid to
upper shortwave trough moves out of the Rockies and fairly stout
LLJ develops. Strong mid level WAA will also be present,
especially by early morning Saturday. Becoming a bit concerned
with regards to flash flooding along and north of I40 through
Saturday morning considering all of the previous features in
place, but it`s too difficult to determine exactly where the
heaviest rainfall will occur at this time to issue any headlines.

A few storms will still be possible Saturday afternoon and evening
along any residual boundaries, but overall coverage should
diminish greatly as the mid to upper trough axis moves into AR. By
early next week, the mid to upper ridge will extend back overhead
and precip chances will disappear. Heat will return to the region
with highs creeping into the upper 90s and low 100s area wide by
Tue. However, drier boundary layer conditions should keep heat
index values low enough to avoid any heat advisory headlines.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  72  92  73 /  50  50  30  40
Hobart OK         96  73  97  74 /  30  50  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  97  75  99  76 /  20  30  20  10
Gage OK           94  68  94  72 /  40  30  30  20
Ponca City OK     86  71  89  73 /  50  40  40  30
Durant OK         96  75  96  75 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/03



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