Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FNUS74 KOUN 171418
FWSOUN

Spot Forecast for RX 17-27...Fort Sill Fire
National Weather Service Norman OK
918 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on September 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (405) 325-3816 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
The latest nearby observation has light south-southeasterly winds.
A cold front from near Kingfisher to Cordell will slowly drift
southward toward the burn site but probably will not make it that
far south. As it approaches, wind speeds may lessen even more and
some variability to the wind direction is possible early this
afternoon. Throughout the afternoon winds should become more reliably
southeasterly but should still remain light. The other concern
for the Fort Sill area is isolated showers and thunderstorms. The odds
of one impacting the burn site through afternoon is fairly small, but
if a shower or storm does move over the site, winds could temporarily
increase and become gusty.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Temperature.........88 at ignition...Max 93.
RH..................49 percent at ignition...Min 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southeast winds 6 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5900-7700
                    ft AGL increasing to 6700-7900 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /70300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /70800 knot-ft/.

TIME (CDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........54     57     56
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............88     91     93
RH..............49     42     37
20 ft wind......S 7    S 6    SE 6
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....5900   7700   7500
Transport wind..SW 14  SW 9   S 10
VRate ktft/100070     67     60

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Temperature.........Min 69.
RH..................Max 85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4100-5500 ft AGL decreasing to 100-500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (4600-52700 knot-ft) decreasing to
                    poor (0 knot-ft) after midnight.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........56     57     53     53     57     51
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............92     82     78     75     73     71
RH..............40     57     66     68     75     83
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 7   SE 8   SE 7   SE 7   SE 6
20 ft wind gust.10     10     15     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....5500   2600   300    200    400    200
Transport wind..S 13   S 16   SE 21  S 22   S 17   S 8
VRate ktft/100053     43     22     5      0      0

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 93.
RH..................Min 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......100-1300 ft AGL increasing to 7000-7800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (400-45700 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (58000-93900 knot-ft) late in
                    the morning.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........51        55        45        36
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
Temp............70        76        88        93
RH..............85        70        47        39
20 FT wind......S 6G10    S 7G10    S 9G15    S 9G15
Mix hgt (ft)....100       1300      5300      7800
Transport wind..S 8       S 15      SW 15     SW 14
VRate ktft/10000         33        69        91

$$
Forecaster...BOWERS
Requested by...Jay Young
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1715964.0/OUN
.EMAIL jay.a.young24.civ@army.mil



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