Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 241051
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
551 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Been dealing with some patchy fog potential over Southwest Indiana
and West Kentucky Pennyrile region this morning. At this time, the
fog should develop and dissipate over a short period of time as
the cold front and drier air advects into the area during the next
few hours.

High pressure near the surface will continue to advect drier air
at low levels into the region later today through at least Sunday
night. The cloud forecast may be a little more uncertain, as
cyclonic flow aloft, centered over Lake Michigan persists through
the short term time period and may produce variability in cloud
cover.

In collaboration with other NWS Central Region offices, there
appears to be a somewhat consistent signal for a elevated
temperature/moisture advection on Monday over parts of Western
Missouri. With an enhancement of channel vorticity and cooling
aloft around the Lake Michigan low, added a mention of showers and
a low probability of thunderstorms to Southeast Missouri and
adjacent sections of Southwest Illinois and Kentucky late Monday
and Monday night. As the shortwave rotates around the
aforementioned area Monday night, precipitation chances should
diminish quickly before daybreak on Tuesday. At this time, only
medium forecast confidence on its occurrence.

Otherwise, dry conditions should remain in place through the
weekend. In addition to the regionally blended model guidance
initialization, utilized the Canadian, RAP, NAM-WRF (NMM and ARW
version) input for temperatures, dewpoints, winds, clouds, etc.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

High confidence at the start of the extended...decreasing to medium
confidence day 6 and 7.

We start the extended with a surface high over the area and a
northwest flow aloft. This keeps the gulf moisture out of the
equation to start. So a mainly dry forecast although with a
northwest flow aloft...cant rule out a weak spoke of energy rotating
through but it will have to bring its own moisture supply as the
gulf remain closed for business. As we head through the week the
surface high drifts eastward over the eastern seaboard. This allows
the gulf moisture to slowly return to the region at least from the
surface through 700mb albeit it a moderate return. We change from a
northwest flow aloft to near zonal mid week. Finally we start to
transport a little more moisture aloft through the end of the week.
We also have a cold front out over the plains poised to approach the
area for the weekend. As usual the models continue to increase rain
chances days 6 and 7 as it has been doing for several days. It
continues to dry or lower pops for days 4 and 5 with each run.
However LI`s remain negative with CAPE`s generally in the 1-2k j/kg2
range included thunder mention anywhere pops exist. In addition will
continue previous approach of keeping pops lower than the blend is
yielding days 6 and 7. Temperatures will start out well below normal
Tuesday. We will however see a warming trend as humidity increases
through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR conditions will dominate with mainly diurnally-based scattered
cumulus cloud decks expected during the afternoon, with
unrestricted ceilings and visibilities overnight. Added a mention
of wind gusts with the KEVV and KOWB TAF locations, where more
horizontal and vertical mixing is expected during the peak heating
of the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...Smith


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