Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 160548
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1148 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Winds really picked up this pm, and model soundings did show
50-60 kts just off the surface this morning. Visible imagery shows
breaks in overcast across our southern third of the FA, and that`s
where the best gusts have been. These isolated gusts have exceeded
headline criteria, but the bulk average winds and gusts have been
below criteria. Have chosen to handle via heightened product
awareness (SPS/HWO/Grids/Social Media) just minus the headline.
Think we`ll keep that approach, given front and nightfall approach
and expectation of more clouds, not less. Will monitor however,
and reserve right to upgrade if trends or conditions warrant.

Another feature of today was/is short window of mucape, picked up
by rap, in mainly our northern counties for convection, including
isolated chance thunder. This occurred both in the north now, and
in the south earlier today. Updated grids/products to account for
this very isolated chance. This was reflected on the new swody1
marginal risk along/north of I-64, also updated, and that threat
too continues til nightfall.

Additional qpf still looking to be about 1/2 inch on average
tonight-tmrw, though locally higher totals are possible. This
could cause some issues on wetted grounds, but headlines for this
also not necessary. Cold fropa tmrw will eventually bring drier
air down the column and an end to pcpn, though catafrontic pcpn,
esp early tmrw, will still be depicted with high pops. Gusty
winds too with the frontal wind shift.

Cold air will drive temps down 30 degrees ish for tmrw`s highs,
compared to today. This cooler air then settles in for the
beginning of the weekend. That means next pcpn chance, slated for
Friday night-Saturday morning onset, could encounter critical
crossover temps for freezing/frozen pcpn with potential for light
accums. However, quick turn around to southerlies Saturday, and
some model (nam) indications for later onset and warm nose means
lower LSR ratios (collaborated with LSX/SGF on this edit) and
shorter window for freezing/frozen early Sat morning will spell
mainly just a few tenths snow accums possible mainly SEMO
highlands, washed out quickly by southerlies/rain/temps in 40s
Saturday pm. Another quarter to half inch coming liquid qpf (mainly
south) for Fri night-Sat-Sat night time frame.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at |352 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Quite a messy extended forecast period. High Pressure will move
east of the WFO PAH forecast, allowing for a return flow of
moisture into the area. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the leading edge of a warm front in the
lower Mississippi Valley Sunday evening. From that point onward,
the WFO PAH forecast area is forecast to remain glued in a fast
southwest flow aloft with channeled vorticity remaining across the
area. A slow frontal passage will begin moving into the WFO PAH
forecast area after 12z Tuesday and is not expected to exit the
area until after 18z Wednesday. High Pressure will build in by
early Thursday, but overrunning precipitation is expected to
persist along the leading edge of the ridge.

Storm Total QPF (Precipitation amount) estimates suggest 2.5" to
3.5" of rain will be possible Monday night through Wednesday
morning...with the heaviest axis of rainfall over southeast
Missouri into southeast Illinois.

A wintry mix may be possible...mainly late Wednesday night, but
any amounts are expected to be very minimal and should not impact
travel.

Temperatures will remain at or above normal in the extended
period with values 5 to 10 degrees above normal, to as much as 20
degrees above normal on Monday and Tuesday. Given the excessively
wet ground and cloud cover, do not expect much in the way of any
significant wintry weather impact.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1148 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Outflow will take winds to the northwest at KEVV to start the
period, and some VFR showers will be possible as well. The main
band of rain and the cold front will arrive 08Z-10Z at all sites.
Mainly MVFR conditions expected with the cold front, but some IFR
will be possible at KEVV and KOWB. Looks like the rains/showers
should be southeast of the TAF sites shortly after 15Z. MVFR
ceilings will linger into the afternoon before finally
lifting/scattering to VFR. If southwest winds do not gust
ahead of the front, LLWS will be a concern in the next few hours.
Otherwise northwest winds will be quite gusty behind the front,
and will slowly subside through the day Friday.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS



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