Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 102301
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
501 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 458 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

A high amplitude northwesterly flow pattern will continue through
the short term. However, there will be a brief warm up on coming
on Monday with plenty of sunshine and brisk southwesterly winds
20-30 MPH at times ahead of the next clipper type system heading
southeast out of Canada. Highs will make it back into the 50s
during the day at most locations, and portions of southeast MO may
even flirt with 60 degrees. The brisk winds will combine with
quite low relative humidities to produce an elevated fire danger
over drought stricken regions of southeast MO.

The clipper system will then drag a moisture starved cold front
southeast through the region Monday night. The main effect from
the frontal passage will be a return to unseasonably cold
temperatures Tuesday and Tuesday night. After highs only in the
mid 30s to mid 40s Tuesday, readings will fall back down into the
lower half of the 20s Tuesday night. Some of our normally colder
locations could even see some upper teens by Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

At the beginning of the period, a large upper level low will be
across New England with a ridge persistent over the Pacific Coast
region. A change in the weather pattern is coming by next weekend
and with time the pattern will become less amplified. However,
unsettled NW flow aloft will continue across the nation east of the
Rockies and over our area until then. During this transition, a
couple of trofs should move across the area. At the surface, frontal
boundaries will be reflected and move southeast as well. First
system is expected Thursday into Thursday evening with slight chance
pops in the far eastern counties. There is chance the precipitation
could move east before temperatures drop below freezing Thursday
evening but with it too close to call have a few hours of change
over to some very light snow before ending before midnight. No
accumulation is expected. The second system doesn`t have much in the
way of moisture either with most models showing dry weather next
weekend. The GFS continues to show some light rain and have
continued this forecast for the sake of persistence. Temperatures
will remain below normal through the end of the week and then
moderate as the pattern shifts.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 458 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

A cold front drops down/across the FA this evening, but has little
effect other than some high cloud passage. Tmrw, similar
conditions arise, with increasing south winds becoming gusty
during the pm hours, ahead of a cold front that will drop
down/make passage about 24 hours from now. Similarly, some
scattered to broken mid to high clouds are expected ahead of the
front. Time/height cross sections do show some lower/potentially
flight rules restricted clouds post frontal passage, but that is
just beyond the valid portion of this package.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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