Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 170644
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
144 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

High pressure will remain anchored over the Ohio river valley
thru the short term forecast period. Height falls in the West do
teleconnect/amplify the eastern U.S. High aloft, which builds
heights across the mid South. This impacts our area with a warming
profile as the week wears on. We`ll start out crisp and cool this
morning, with patchy frost and Lows in the 30s, definitely the
coolest morning of the week. A day of near full sunshine will see
highs warming some 30-35F from the daybreak mins, into the 66-71F
range. RH values will plummet into the 30s percentile this pm for
most locations, but SEMO Ozarks may see RH as low as mid 20s.
Tonight won`t be quite as cool as this morning, with lower 40s
expected. We see return flow southerlies and 850 mb temps warming
Wed-Thur, under 80 meter H5 height bump. This should translate to
a 2-3F increase in temps each day as they rise thru the 70s/40s,
getting ever nearer to 80/50 by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Confidence remains high into the weekend then decreases Sunday into
Monday as a front makes it way through the region.

Models have been in good agreement at least through Saturday. They
place a surface high just to our east and allow a moist southerly
flow over the region. This will keep temperatures well above
normal anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above normal. It will also
supply ample moisture ahead of an approaching cold front late in
the weekend. Models have been in conflict with this system`s
timing or even its existence a couple days back. However they have
come into much better agreement on a cold front passage Sunday.
In fact the blend produced likely pops Sunday. I dont know if I
can keep the likely pops going but will wait and see what
collaboration yields. Also models are advertising some weak
indications of possible thunder with LI`s a negative one to two
and some elevated weak CAPE of less than 500 j/kg2. Also the K
index is running in the low 30s. This may result in the
introduction of thunder but will wait at least another cycle
before doing so at least. PW`s are also coming in a little high at
1.72 so may consider bumping to moderate rain if this starts to
trend run to run.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

With condensation pressure deficit values upwards to 200-300 mb in
the lower trop, we don`t see much in the way of clouds, even
diurnally driven during the pm hours. The only moisture seen on
time/height cross sections is above 400 mb today, so we`ll have
that represented with some cirrus mention.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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