Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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840
FXUS63 KPAH 111734
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1134 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 314 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The main item in the short term will be a high fire danger
across the Ozarks and Mark Twain Forest areas of southeast
Missouri. Details can be found in the fire weather forecast
discussion section below. We will be pushing perhaps an elevated
fire danger even into the rest of SEMO, southern IL and far west
KY as well, mainly due to the wind, and short fuels drying out.
Otherwise it will be mild and breezy today, with a cold front
forecast to move through dry very late this afternoon and early
this evening. Tonight, considerable 925-850mb moisture will move
southeast across the area behind the front. The EVV tri- state
area gets clipped by slightly deeper moisture. Included some
sprinkles to flurries in this area. Would not rule it out farther
west as well.

Back to cold Tuesday, with highs only low to mid 30s SW Indiana to
lower 40s SEMO. A little warmer Wednesday as return flow sets up.
May see a few more clouds as a wave moves southeast across the
area late Wednesday. MAV was a little better than MET MOS for
yesterday`s highs. All in all they were too cool. Probably the
case again today with dry air in place, and good southwesterly
flow expected. Went slightly above MOS for temps today. Blend MOS
and existing numbers for the rest of the short term. Used a
NAM/GFS blend for the other parameters. We did incorporate RAP
data for dew points today for SEMO, with support from model
soundings, lowering values below MOS and blend numbers. The RAP is
likely too high elsewhere for today, so we used MOS east of the
Ozark Foothills.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

No real big signals for widespread rain in the extended period,
therefore drought conditions may expand or worsen. By Thursday, a
cold front will be departing the area early in the day and cold air
advection will take over throughout the day. Therefore, high
temperatures will be cooler on Thursday then they were on Wednesday
and range from he upper 30s far north to mid 40s south. An upper
level trough swings through Thursday night and if there is enough
moisture, we might see a few flurries but otherwise dry. High
pressure builds in at the surface on Friday so temperatures will not
change too much from Thursday`s readings and dry weather will
continue.

This high shifts south Friday night and winds become southwesterly
yet again. The gradient tightens on Saturday ahead of another cold
front in the Central Plains/Midwestern states, so gusty winds will
result as temperatures soar into the lower to middle 50s for highs
with ongoing warm air advection that will have started Friday night.

Models are in fairly good agreement in bringing the frontal boundary
southeast toward the area on Saturday into Saturday night. We should
stay fairly warm for Sunday as our area remains in the warm sector
ahead of this front. So highs should stay in the 50s for Sunday.
Models do try and bring some moisture northward ahead of this front
but to varying degrees. In addition, models this far out still
having some timing issues. The GFS is the most robust as far as
moisture and QPF and indicates a small chance for rain mainly over
west KY Sunday morning/Sunday afternoon. The GFS ensemble precip
mean also hints toward that timing and location for POPs right now.
Other models are pretty scant with QPF so will keep POPs low for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Southwest winds will gust 20-25kts and gradually veer to west
southwest this afternoon. A cold front will turn winds to the west
northwest this evening. Some gusts into the teens will be
possible early this evening, but winds will increase toward 06Z
more from the north and gusts 25kts or more will be possible
overnight. With this surge there will also be an area of 2-4kts
ceilings overnight. MVFR ceilings are most likely at KEVV and
KOWB. Gusty northwest winds will prevail after daybreak, and
skies should clear quickly by sunrise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

We will have a Red Flag Warning in effect for Carter, Ripley,
Wayne and Butler counties in SEMO, and Oregon and Shannon counties
in south central Missouri from late morning through sunset. This
was coordinated with WFO`s LSX and SGF. Minimum afternoon humidity
values will likely be 15-25 percent, with wind gusts to 25 mph,
and at times sustained winds near 15 mph. Minimum 10 hour fuels
will likely be at or below 9 percent as well, after viewing trends
from yesterday afternoon via our RAWS sites. This area remains
affected by severe drought conditions. Conditions today will make
the fire danger high. A press release from the Forest Service a
few days ago, already expressed concern over the high fire danger
across the Mark Twain National Forest.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ098-100-
     106>109.

IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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