Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

155
FXUS63 KPAH 182345
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
645 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2017

High pressure centered over central Kentucky will remain over the
same area and build through Friday. We will be on the warm side so
overnight lows will increase over the next couple of nights. High
temperatures will climb a few degrees as well. May have one more
morning of river and lake fog tomorrow.

The center of the ridge at 500h moves over the area on Friday.
This ridging is in response to a couple of significant waves, one
will be over Oklahoma early Friday with the longer wave trough
along the northwest coast of the U.S.

The ridge will keep us dry through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2017

Models are coming into a better consensus on the system over the
weekend. The main trough will be moving into the plains Saturday
evening. Plenty of moisture will move up from the Gulf ahead of
the system with precipitation chances increasing starting
Saturday Night.

An atmospheric river will form and bring precipitable water
values of 1.5 to 2 inches into the area. This puts us close to
the 99th percentile climatologically for this time of year.
Moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible mainly Saturday
Night and Sunday. The front itself should be along a Chicago to
Bootheel line by Noon on Sunday and move slowly east. ECMWF is a
bit slower than the GFS/ensembles on the timing.

There is a brief period on Sunday where the low CAPE values and
relatively strong deep layer shear align over the area. Surface
dew points will be in the lower 60s so cannot rule out an isolated
severe storm or two. Several days of model runs will help define
this better as we get closer.

Showers may linger over the eastern sections Monday as a low
spins up over the southeast U.S. which would throw additional
moisture back north over western Kentucky. Weak waves moving
through the main trough may bring isolated showers to the area
Tuesday.

After that the trough deepens significantly and much colder air
moves into the area. 850 temperatures will go below zero Wednesday
into Thursday. Although beyond this period, may have a decent
frost on Thursday if things all line up.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR conditions will persist through Thursday as the region remains
under the influence of high pressure. Light southerly winds tonight
will pick up to less than 10 knots on Thursday--not quite as strong
as today.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...RJP



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.