Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 252157 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 557 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep dry weather in the forecast until low pressure brings rain to the region Wednesday night and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... No updates needed early this evening as the current forecast remains right on track. Previous discussion follows. As winds veer to the north, clouds should diminish across northern counties overnight. However, a warm front moving in from the southwest should bring additional cloud cover into the region from the south. With relatively dry air at the surface, the warm front is not expected to bring any rain to the region tonight. Some bias corrected guidance was blended into the temperature forecast, keeping temperatures warmer across Ohio with developing cloud cover and colder to the east where fewer clouds and light winds should allow for radiational cooling. No headlines are planned as the growing season has been declared ended given the region is two weeks beyond the median-freeze date. Cloud cover will continue to increase on Wednesday as low pressure moves farther east, although the bulk of rainfall should remain west of the forecast area during daytime hours. Temperatures will remain below normal, with similar values to today. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure will track from Chicago to Lake Erie and up to Lake Ontario Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing a cold front through the region. Continued with likely to categorical pops during that timeframe, and cannot rule out some snowflakes near Forest County. A non-diurnal temperature curve will see temperatures decreasing Wednesday evening, then slowly rising overnight. While the bulk of precipitation will move east by Thursday evening, colder air moving into the region will allow for scattered lake-effect showers, although there may not be a long enough period with a northerly component of winds to tap into much Lake Erie moisture. These showers should wrap up by Friday afternoon. Temperatures will remain below normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Still a bit of model uncertainty with a system moving along the US-Canadian border through the weekend, and while pops remain in the forecast, have lowered pops slightly as the entire system appears to have a track slightly farther to the north. High pressure will move across the eastern United States Monday and Tuesday, yielding dry weather. Saturday and Tuesday should have temperatures a few degrees above normal, with seasonal temperatures Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR and low end VFR stratocu will persist early this afternoon, but improvement can be expected thereafter as subsidence, gradually veering wind, and dry advection all retard flow off the lakes. Northwest wind, with gusts to about 15 kt, will weaken as eve approaches. VFR and light wind will dominate the remainder of the TAF period. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The next chance for general restrictions will come late Wednesday with low pressure advancing out of the midwest. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.