Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 272316 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 616 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS PREDICTED THIS WEEKEND AS READING REBOUND INTO THE 50S COME SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL DCVA. SNOW DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LAYERED OMEGA COINCIDING IN THE DENDRICTIC GROWTH LAYER WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. SNOW RATIOS WILL CLIMB FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT. ONE THING WE WILL BE WATCHING IS A POSSIBLE BAND OF SNOW COMING OFF LAKE ERIE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WHICH IS ILLUSTRATED BY THE HRRR...RUC13...AND 18Z NAM12. THIS BAND WHILE WILL NOT PRODUCE A LOT OF SNOW...HOWEVER ROAD COULD BE COVERED WITH UP TO AN INCH. UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE NUMBERS OVER MUCH OF PA TO LIKELY...WHILE BUMPING UP THE MTNS TO CATEGORICAL. SO FAR THREE INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN PRESTON COUNTY. SNOW TOTALS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE LARGE PART WITH A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING SNOW RATIOS THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY SATURDAY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO OVER +5 AT 850MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID WEEK WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS AREA OF SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE...THUS TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH TIMING USED FROM RADAR. STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SNOWS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SITES. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR RETURNING BY FRIDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...98

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