Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 071933 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 333 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... FRONT IS CUTTING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NW OHIO AT THIS TIME. MOST MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND FLOPPING IT OVER CLOSE TO THE MASON/DIXON LINE AS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. EXPECT CONTINUED BLOSSOMING OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND THIS EVENING...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN ARRIVING BY 23Z IN SOUTHEAST OHIO. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE CERTAINLY APPROPRIATE. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...AS WELL AS PWAT VALUES AROUND 2+ INCHES AND DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ON OVERNIGHT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THINK THAT WE MAY SEE SOME EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST CONCERNED IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM PIT ON SOUTH...AND WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA THROUGH 15Z. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT THINK THAT LOCALIZED 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOUTHEAST OHIO HAS BEEN A BIT DRIER AND DID NOT GO AS EXTENSIVE ON THE WATCH THERE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL ESSENTIALLY STALL OUT ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA-MARYLAND BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. MAJORITY OF RAIN SHOULD BE DONE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH BULK OF RAIN CONTAINED TO THE RIDGES BY THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST DURING THE MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD STABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE PULLED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. WITH THE LOW OFF TO THE EAST...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM THAT SYSTEM SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO NORTHEASTERN INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND RACES TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE NOT COME INTO AGREEMENT ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP FRIDAY DRY. IN FACT...FRIDAY MAY BE THE ONLY DRY DAY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST IN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. DAILY CHANCE POPS CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SW WINDS FROM 10-20 KNOTS. SPOTTY SHRA AND A COUPLE TSRA MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT A TERMINAL...BUT CHANCES/DURATION TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE AHEAD OF A FRONT AFTER 23Z OR SO NEAR ZZV...TO AROUND 01Z AT PIT...AND 04Z AT MGW. EXPECTING GENERALIZED MVFR WHEN THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENING...AND TRIED TO TIME SOME IFR TEMPO CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAIN AS WELL. EXPECTING MOST TERMINALS TO DROP TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND FROPA. PRECIP COVERAGE DECREASES BY 12Z AS FRONT HANGS UP NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE...BUT EXPECT ONLY VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MIDDAY. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MDZ001. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ059-068-069. PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ021-029-031-073>076. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ003-004-012-021>023-041.
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