Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 011927 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 327 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AND STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DETERIORATION OF MORNING STRATUS HAD BEEN SLOW...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...BUT STRATUS HAS MIXED OUT INTO A CU FIELD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY JUMP UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH MARKS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE. OVERALL...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED. THINK THAT THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT EFFECTIVELY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY WITH MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS THAT COULD DISRUPT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT...TRAJECTORY AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THURSDAYS FORECAST...TRIMMING POPS BACK TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS. THIS SHOULD COME AS A WELCOME SIGHT AFTER DAYS OF CONSTANT RAIN THREAT. TAX && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND THE MODELS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE SUPPRESSED WITH IT. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MOST MODELS BUYING INTO THIS THINKING. HAVE SUPPRESSED POPS AS A RESULT BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE VALUES ACROSS MOST AREAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO WORK WITH AT MGW...AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY ZERO AT FKL. HAVE REDUCED THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL AND HAVE REMOVED IT NORTH OF I-80. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE WAVE. ON SATURDAY...THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR RAINFALL. HOWEVER...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AND INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER AREAWIDE. WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CL
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE ADDITION OF MID- TO HIGH- CLOUDS MAY SUPPRESS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY SOUTH. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TAX .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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