Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 032059 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 359 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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An unsettled pattern will continue through the week, with precipitation expected Sunday night, Tuesday, and Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Very light snow could continue north of Interstate 80, but any accumulation would be minimal. As winds back to the west, this should allow for at least some partial clearing. A cold front will approach from the west on Sunday, but any precipitation is expected to remain west of the area during the daytime. Temperatures should be seasonable.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Flow on Sunday night with incoming cold front does not appear to be as split as it has over the last few days, and with system better organized, had increased pops to likely in all locations. Considering temperatures on Sunday will have been slightly warmer than the last several days, precipitation will start as rain in most places, with any snow accumulation less than an inch. A lingering shower may last into Monday, but the rest of the day should be dry. Forecast for Monday night into Tuesday is becoming a bit more complicated. The last few runs of the GFS/ECMWF have been relatively consistent with timing of precipitation moving into the region, so have thrown out the NAM/SREF as fast outliers. Precipitation should move in from southwest to northeast. Warm temperatures aloft will melt any precipitation, but there is still some uncertainty as to how cold surface temperatures will be as precipitation begins. Have added freezing rain to the forecast in many locations, although confidence still remains low in how the pattern will develop and thus no mention was added in the hazardous weather outlook. Tuesday may end up being the warmest day of the week with temperatures in most locations rising into the 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Precipitation will decrease Tuesday night as low pressure moves to the east, with the next widespread chance for precipitation arriving on Thursday with a potent cold front. Behind the front, the coldest air of the season will move in for Friday and Saturday. Snow showers will continue in cold advection behind the front.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR cigs can be expected at all ports except ZZV through most of the day as cold advection maintains the mixing layer, which looks to be shallow enough to leave snow showers unmentionable. Improvement is anticipated from the southwest tonight as northwest flow at the top of the boundary layer weakens, but restrictions with residual moisture and upslope should persist at FKL and DUJ through the night. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely with crossing low pressure systems during the first half of the new week. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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