Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221055 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 655 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE EXITS EASTWARD. A STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDT. PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE. COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND INTO FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING DRY TREND. ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR. SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WDSPRD MVFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN THIS EVE TO ALLOW SOME CLRG W AT ZZV...AND OVRNGT ACRS AREAS FM PIT W. CLRG AT ZZV MAY BE ERLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DVLP LT TNGT. .AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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