Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 172000 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1252 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures will gradually warm through the latter part of the week and into the weekend with high pressure remains in control.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Satellite imagery shows areas of stubborn low cloud cover hanging around. With the morning sounding showing the dendritic growth zone scraping the surface, any cloud would be able to produce light flurries through midday. Further clearing is expected west to east overnight, but clouds and potential for light snow should last longest over the highest elevations. Despite high pressure nosing in at the surface and modest warming in the mid-levels, the pressure gradient aloft will lend itself to maintaining wind, especially over the Ridges tonight. This, combined with low temperatures currently forecast, could drop wind chills to below -10 degrees. We may need a Wind Chill Advisory for at least the higher terrain tonight. A mention has been placed in the HWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A return to zonal flow or even ridging aloft will be temporarily stunted by a fast moving shortwave trough cruising through the Great Lakes Thursday. Even still, temperature moderation is expected Thursday falling just shy of average values. Otherwise, this quick trough should result in little more than additional clouds across northern zones. Heights will then begin to build further into Friday as a very broad ridge slides eastward. Further temperature moderation is expected, and should begin to do work on the remaining snowpack. Drying and warming will carry through Saturday as trough digs into the western CONUS and we maintain zonal flow aloft. Eventually this flow will stream moisture back into the area from the west, and an increase in cloud cover is expected.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Warm advection will strengthen through the weekend ahead of the next system approaching from the west with temperatures climbing to around 15 degrees above normal on average across the region. Increasing cloud coverage on Sunday as moisture advection ramps up...with light precipitation possible. Latest model consensus progs frontal passage on Monday afternoon...with the best chance for rain along and ahead of the cold front. Temperatures on Tuesday will lower back to near normal behind the front. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR stratocu, in cold advection and upper troughing, is expected at most ports into the afternoon. Cig should begin to improve from west to east as the progresses, back to VFR levels. .OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns over the weekend with approaching low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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