Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241003 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 603 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES. STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS. TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES... PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. IN ADDN...PTCHY IFR FG WL CONT UNTIL JUST AFT SUNRISE ACRS OH AND THE WV PANHANDLE. ELSW...VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER HIGH PRES...THOUGH VFR SC IS EPXD TO INCR OVRNGT AHD OF AN APCHG WK CDFNT. OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA AS THE WK CDFNT CROSSES SAT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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