Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 261737
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
137 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
Warm temperatures with shower and thunderstorm chances are
expected through the holiday weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak shortwave crossing the region today will help produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms as later in the afternoon as
daytime heating increases instability.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The weak shortwave should exit the region by this evening, ending
any shower and thunderstorm chances. Eastern CONUS ridging is
then expected to persist through the weekend. Increasing moisture
and instability in southwest flow on the western periphery of the
ridge should result in daily, mainly diurnal, shower and
thunderstorm chances. The local area is in closest proximity to
the ridge Friday, which should result in the lowest POPs in the
short term period. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal
levels are expected through the period using GFS MOS and
consensus blend guidance.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The eastern CONUS ridge is progged by ensemble guidance to shift
east off the coast by early next week. Mainly diurnal shower and
thunderstorm chances are expected in the moist, unstable
atmosphere west of the ridge through much of the long term
period. Models differ on the handling of a low across the
Carolinas by mid week, and the northern extent of any associated
precip. Used adjusted Superblend guidance through the period to
account for the uncertainty and varying operation model solutions.
Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal levels.
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Prevailing VFR is anticipated through the period, expect where a
shower or thunderstorm passes over a taf location this afternoon
and again on friday. At this point, have only maintained vicinity
thunderstorms in KLBE, KFKL, and KDUJ where the latest hi res
model guidance suggests convection could develop this afternoon.
Convective complex currently approaching western Ohio is progged
to slide southward, weakening on it`s northern flank. However,
added vicinity shower to ZZV to cover anything that may develop
briefly ahead of this system.
Moistening low levels may support the development of some fog
toward sunrise tomorrow depending on wind speed. Both the LAMP and
the experimental HREF suggest ceiling restrictions may be
possible north of PIT, so IFR conditions were introduced in those
Otherwise, VFR will return Friday. While there still may be a
chance for a shower or thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon, the
building ridge leaves little confidence for a vcsh or vcts mention
at this time.
.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue
through the holiday weekend.
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