Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 211818 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 218 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... ATTM...CDFNT IS LOCATED FROM SERN MI TO CNTRL IN WHILE PRE-FRONTAL TROF STRETCHES FROM NR KROC TO KFKL TO KZZV. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL CONT TO ADVC ESEWD THRU TDA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN THIS AFTN. QUALITY INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF...WITH VSBL SATELLITE INDICATING CNVCTV CLD DVLPMT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF. H5 TROF WILL BCM INCRGLY NEUTRALLY- TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED TDA AS JET STRENGTHENS...LEADING CDFNT TO OVERTAKE SFC TROF LATE THIS AFTN. INSOLATION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE BNDRY SHOULD FOSTER INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN. MID-LVL CAP WILL LMT DEPTH OF ANY CNVCTN...BUT LOW-LVL WIND FIELD IS QUITE STRONG...SO GUSTY/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE DPR STORMS. PCPN SHOULD VACATE THE FCST AREA BY 00-01 UTC AS COLD AIR ADVCTN INCRS. STRATOCU SHOULD BCM ABUNDANT LATE TNGT AND LAKE-EFFECT SHWRS WILL BE PSBL AS FLOW BCMS INCRGLY NWLY IN THE WAKE OF FROPA. CLDS XPCD TO LINGER LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON UNTIL SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS EARLY MON EVE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... H500 TROUGH LIFTS OUT QUICKLY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THEN...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE TAKES OVER...AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH TIME. WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...CLOUDS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ONCE CLOUDS DISSIPATE MONDAY EVENING. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAYBE A FEW LAKE-INDUCED CU...AND ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH. FOR TEMPERATURES...TRIED TO INCLUDE A BIT WIDER DIURNAL RANGE THAN INDICATED BY MOS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED. READINGS WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE...PERHAPS TRENDING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH TIME. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES...BUT THINK DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A TOUCH TOO HIGH FOR MUCH OF A FROST CONCERN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS WELL. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH COULD PUSH MOISTURE A LITTLE CLOSER. THE GFS IS THE DIRECT OPPOSITE...WITH A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND KEEPING SAID MOISTURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. AN HPC-SUGGESTED COMPROMISE WOULD STILL KEEP THE CWA WELL INTO THE DRY AIR. THUS...NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DVLP ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF STRETCHING FROM NEAR KROC TO KFKL TO KZZV. THIS BNDRY WILL SHIFT EWD THIS AFTN AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY AN ADVCG CDFNT BY EARLY THIS EVE. DPR CNVCTN WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT. TIMING WILL BE DURG 18-23 UTC FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER. COLD AIR ADVCTN WILL PROMOTE DVLPMT OF STRATOCU DECK AT 1.5-2.5 KFT AFTER 04-05 UTC. LAKE-EFFECT SHWRS ALSO CAN BE XPCD NEAR KFKL AND KDUJ LATE TNGT. ALTHOUGH PCPN WILL WANE MON MRNG...MVFR CLDS NOT XPCD TO DECR UNTIL LATE MON AFTN. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLDS WILL CLR QUICKLY MON EVE AS HIPRES DOMINATES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ KRAMAR/56

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