Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 142316 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 616 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will bring light snow to the region Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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The only changes made for the eve update were cosmetic adjustments to hourly trends. Previous... Quiet conditions will continue through tonight under high pressure. Despite some warming aloft, lows should still fall back into the single digits on the strength of early evening radiation.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Fast moving low pressure dropping south out of Canada and across the Great Lakes will spread light snow across the region starting Monday afternoon through Monday night. Timing has improved, justifying some minor changes to PoPs, but light QPF and approx. 15:1 snow ratios should hold snow amounts below advisory thresholds. System is rather progressive with just enough warm advection during the day Monday to moderate temperatures into the upper 20`s and lower 30`s before the cold front swings across the upper Ohio Valley Tuesday morning. Dry air will surge northeastward, ending snow chances from northwest to southeast toward morning Tuesday. Behind this system, there will be another shot of cold air. Expect little to no lake enhancement/upslope, as winds aloft remain southwest through most of Tuesday. Mid-level flow does shift to the northwest later Tues night as the trough axis passes overhead, but this should lend to no more than scattered snow showers with a rather shallow saturation in the snow growth zone. Temperatures will remain below average.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper trough will be replaced with zonal flow through the end of the week before a trough builds over the western CONUS. New runs of the deterministic models have a fast-moving system passing across the region on Friday, but have opted to not make any major forecast changes based on this. Deepening western CONUS trough will support a return of seasonal or above temperature for next weekend. Timing differences between model guidance supports to use of a model blend through the period. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected overnight and into the day Monday. High clouds will begin to stream in tonight ahead of a clipper system set to arrive Monday afternoon. The clouds will thicken and lower with time on Monday, with some generally light snow arriving after 15Z. MVFR will eventually spread areawide with some IFR mixed in, especially after 18Z. Light easterly flow will eventually shift slightly to southeasterly through the day Monday. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions will spread across the region by Monday night with another round of snow, with improvement by Tuesday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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