Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170551 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1251 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will briefly return with Friday high pressure. Widespread rain can be expected Saturday as another cold front approaches. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Clouds with low level moisture under a temperature inversion should continue tonight, though scattered flurries should end as shortwave ridging builds in overnight. Lows should be a few degrees below seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Building high pressure will maintain dry and cool weather Fri. Clouds will increase again ahead of low pressure advancing out of the Plains. Current expectation is that this low will sharpen a warm front across the region Fri night as it tracks to the Great Lakes region. Rain and rising temperature are expected, mainly after midnight after the frontal passage. Occasional rain showers are expected Saturday amid strong swly flow ahead of an approaching upper trough and cold front. The surface low is progged to track into Southern Ontario by Sat evening, and its attendant cold front will move through in its wake. Strong wind aloft is expected on Sat, though forecast soundings show a capping inversion that will prevent the wind from reaching the surface. Gusts nevertheless are possible along and behind the front as lapse rates steepen, but it is unclear whether wind headlines will be needed. Cold advection will help change rain showers to snow showers Sat night as the upper trough approaches. Likely PoPs were maintained in the lake-effect belt along and n of I-80 and in the ridges e/se of Pittsburgh, where upslope flow and enhanced instability will strengthen upward motion. On-and-off snow showers can be expected through Sun night as cold air aloft and a lake fetch maintain low-level instability. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging should result in dry weather early in the week before upper troughing returns minimal chances for precipitation n of PIT by midweek. Temperatures should average below seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Low VFR / high MVFR ceilings overnight as moisture remains trapped under a subsidence inversion. VFR expected by mid morning at all sites as high pressure crosses the region. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely with a Sat cold front and with Sun upper troughing and cold NW flow.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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