Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 031447 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1047 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS MAIN SHORTWAVE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON HELPING KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK MODEL WIND PROFILE WITH SLOW MOVING...RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR A TIME. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE CU. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK. ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS IS PRECLUDED. FRIES OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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