Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300540 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1240 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A DRY SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM FOR SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SQUALLS WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL ALSO USHER IN THE NEXT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS SHORTWAVE IS RUSHING EASTWARD AND WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE ONCE IT EXITS. UPSTREAM OBS AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AS MOST SITES ARE NOW SNOW FREE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BEHIND THE SNOW AS MOISTURE ALOFT WILL EXIT...PREVENTING THE INFUSION OF ICE CRYSTALS INTO THE LOWER CLOUD DECK. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH STRONG CAA BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...SNOW GROWTH ZONES DROP QUICKLY AS WELL. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING... PROVIDING ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY THE RIDGES. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES WILL BE CRANKING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATIONS WERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OPTIMAL. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AS IS. STEERING WINDS BEGIN TO SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DRIVE THE ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS MY ENTIRE CWA. THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT WILL WANE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE VEERING AND SHEAR IN THE WINDS AND ALSO THE LOWERING OF INVERSIONS. THE RIDGES WILL HOLD ONTO SNOW SHOWERS THE LONGEST THANKS TO THE ALWAYS PERSISTENT OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. HIGHS WILL BE REACHED IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SNOW SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY SATURDAY. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR ANOTHER SNOW PRODUCING STORM SUNDAY. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE VARIED GREATLY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO THERE STILL IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT WILL BE THE FINAL SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE 21Z SREF SOLUTION AS IT SEEMS TO BE A NICE MIX OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS. IF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK COMES TO FRUITION...HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A COLD...WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONDITION DETERIORATION IS UNDERWAY AND DEGRADATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS MIXED PCPN SPREADS OVR UPR OH TERMINALS AND CHANGES TO SNOW WITH CDFNT PASSAGE THIS EVE. IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN SNOW SHWRS THIS EVE...AND IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS WHICH WL ACCOMPANY THE COLD SURGE OVR THE REGION. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... IMPROVEMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BLDS LTR ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER...SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH SUNDAY LOW PRES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074- 076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023- 041.
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&& $$

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