Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 191848
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
148 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
Dry and warm conditions will continue until a frontal system
crosses the region Tuesday night. Well above normal
temperatures are expected through the end of the work week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stratus mainly south of I-70 will dissipate this evening. Clear
skies and building high pressure will allow for chilly
temperatures, but still above the seasonal norms.
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring a
mild and dry Monday.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong ridging will keep very warm temperatures across the
region into Tuesday. A weak front will arrive with a shortwave
to beat down mid levels heights somewhat Tuesday, and give
likely POPs for showers mainly Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night. High pressure will end showers for Wednesday, with
temperatures remaining 15 to 20 degrees above average.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term continues to highlight very warm temperatures to end
the work week, as another mid level ridge builds across the
eastern CONUS. As a trough amplifies over the southwestern US
and ejects into the Central Plains by late week, shower chances
will increase later Thursday into Friday. Low pressure moving
northeast across the Great Lakes will drag a strong cold front
east Friday night with showers, and with strong mid level
dynamics, a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures falling back
toward the seasonal norms for Saturday into Sunday.
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 18Z, MVFR stratus continues to impact KZZV and KMGW, but
stratus should sink south in the next two hours. After that, VFR
conditions will occur at all terminals. Model guidance hints
that there could be additional MVFR restrictions overnight, but
am not convinced that there will be enough low-level moisture.
For now, have generally stuck with a mention of scattered MVFR
clouds, although even if clouds remain scattered, winds may be
light enough to allow fog to develop. Have not put any
restrictions in the forecast yet. West winds around 10 kt this
afternoon will lighten and veer to the northwest overnight.
The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a
Tuesday cold front.