Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291738 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 138 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ensure dry weather this afternoon before another low pressure system brings rain to the region late Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... With noon update, minimal changes were made to cloud cover and hourly temperature grids as clearing occurs from north to south. High pressure ridge building overhead will maintain dry conditions this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures should warm close to, if not slightly above seasonal averages. Clear skies tonight, albeit not perfect for radiational cooling with some surface wind, should allow for us to cool off early. However, strengthening warm advection aloft should become a limiting factor as we go toward Thursday morning. Thus, a non- diurnal trend is forecast with lows close to seasonal averages. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure should keep the region dry through Thursday morning, with guidance trending even a bit slower with the arrival of precipitation. Still, will increase PoPs to likely by Thursday night as deep, moist, southerly flow in advance of the occluding low supports these values. Broad low pressure will slowly slide eastward through Friday, maintaining rain chances through much of the day. The weakening upper low will shift east by Saturday morning, but lingering low level moisture may keep widely scattered showers possible through the first part of the day before building subsidence brings an end to precipitation. Temperatures will continue to run slightly above seasonal averages through the period, including on Friday, despite rain with strong warm advection expected. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Very little change in the pattern is expected as model guidance continues to show a series of low pressure systems ejecting out of the southwestern CONUS and lifting toward the Ohio/Tennessee valleys. This will maintain at least chance PoPs through midweek outside of dry conditions expected Sunday. With some uncertainty in low track and speed, a blend of guidance was used. Temperatures will generally stay close to averages for early April. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR under clear skies will last through late this evening. High clouds will begin to stream in from the west and southwest overnight. Increasing low-level moisture will then begin to pool west of the Ridges tonight, ahead of a warm front. This could lead to some spotty MVFR around daybreak for ZZV or even BVI/HLG, but confidence in this is low to medium. Otherwise, a descent to low VFR is expected through the duration of the TAF period, with rain chances increasing Thursday afternoon/evening. Light and variable winds will gradually shift easterly by Thursday, but generally remain less than 10kts. Outlook... Restrictions are likely again from late Thursday through Saturday as another broad low affects the Upper Ohio Valley. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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