Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221745 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 145 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID WEEK COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CUMULUS BUILDUPS CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY A FAIRLY STRONG CAP AROUND 10 KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERATED BY INTENSE INSOLATION EARLIER TODAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN BELOW 10 KFT HAVE MANAGED TO ALLOW FOR SAID CUMULUS TO BE QUITE WIDESPREAD AROUND THE REGION. THAT SAID...ONLY AROUND THE HIGHEST RIDGELINES DO THESE BUILDUPS SEEM TO BE CAPABLE OF REACHING SUFFICIENT VERTICAL EXTENT TO CAUSE A SHOWER OR TWO. OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY FADE AS RAGGED MID-CLOUD APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE AN EARLY HARBINGER OF THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE BEST COLUMN RH VALUES FAIL TO REACH OUR CWA PRIOR TO SUNUP. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SEEM LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RIDGETOP TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY WELL UP OVERNIGHT AS 17-18C IS ABOUT AS LOW AS WE WILL MUSTER AT 850 MB. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE EFFECTIVE IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS STRADDLING 70F WILL MAKE DIURNAL FALLS DIFFICULT TO MANAGE. AS A RESULT...A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY RIVER FOG POSSIBLE BY MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG WITH ISOLATED IFR BURING OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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