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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160503 AAE
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN STALL
OVER NORTHERN WV AROUND LUNCHTIME. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE
SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH DAWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE HAS SOMEWHAT STABILIZED...SO EXPECT THE
TREND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE AS STORMS MOVE EAST.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER
DAWN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO RE-FIRE IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. NORTH OF THE FRONT...ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE...WHILE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BECOMES UNSTABLE WITH
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. BECAUSE OF THIS WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH TODAY. WOULD ALSO EXPECT MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH THE FAR NORTH SEEING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE FRONT WILL GET A BIT OF A PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
DRY AIR ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MODELS AGAIN HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING AND
MOVEMENT BACK NORTHWARD OF THE FRONT ACROSS REGION. WITH
UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE...FELT IT BEST TO ONLY MAKE MINOR
CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD AND KEEP POPS IN THE CHC TO SCHC RANGE.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH BY THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
PATTERN BUT DIFFER IN LOCATION OF BOUNDARY ON THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PD AS A CDFNT SLIDES ACRS THE UPR
OH REGION AND STALLS OVR WV. EXCEPTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ZZV AND
MGW AS SHWR CHCS WL PLAGUE THOSE PORTS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE
STALLED FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

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