Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 011329 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 929 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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WITH 930AM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SKY COVER FOR THE MORNING. CONSIDERING THE NUMBER OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING CLEAR SKIES AT THE MOMENT...AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE 12Z PITTSBURGH SOUNDING...AND HOW THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO GO DRIER OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE AROUND NOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TOWARD EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY SUNDAY...THEN A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES INTO MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT STALLING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. ANOTHER HARD TO TIME FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME TUESDAY...AND HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO FRONT. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MOVING A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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GENERAL VFR IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 15KTS BY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING DISTURBANCES.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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