Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170133 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 933 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND SEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUICKLY BEING ERODED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND A BIT DRIER AIR MIXES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPSTREAM AIR MASS ARE NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THE AIR MASS FROM PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER SPOTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...LOWS IN MOST PLACES SEEM POISED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S. ON WEDNESDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY BELOW A VERY STRONG INVERSION BASED AROUND 5 KFT. SOME WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER AS EVIDENCED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD...HOWEVER LITTLE OF THIS IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSLATED TO THE GROUND OWING TO VERY POOR MIXING BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER. AS SUCH...HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS DAYTIME THURSDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PUT IN ANY POPS. OTHERWISE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. TEMPS WILL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE SAT/SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL COME WITH AN ELONGATED TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SUN WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MONDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SKIES WILL GO CLEAR THIS EVENING. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEYS. EXPECTING IFR OR LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z...LEAVING SCT VFR CU. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF VALLEY FOG ONE OR TWO MORNINGS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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