Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 010510 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 110 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED POPS AS SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPS ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE. NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS... HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY... ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT. OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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