Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
211 FXUS61 KPBZ 110344 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1044 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDING BECOMING MORE AND MORE DISORGANIZED. THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY DONE PRETTY WELL WITH BANDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT JUST CANT FULLY BUY IN ON THE IDEA OF SNOW SHOWERS COMPLETELY DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE COMBO OF STILL WIDE OPEN GREAT LAKES AND ARCTIC AIR. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO CURENT ADEVISORIES BUT MAY NEED TO THINK ABOUT PULLING THEM EARLY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TOMORROW BUT WITH A WINDOW OF MEAN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME LAKE BANDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LINE WITH NEWER MODELS...AND WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS WINDS REMAIN UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN FOR THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SNOW SQUALL JUST NORTH OF BVI AND SOUTH OF DUJ WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL. THE TIMING IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN...SO TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT PIT...AGC...AND BVI. THE HRRR DOESN`T HAVE THE BAND MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS HLG BUT WILL TREND TO DETERIORATING VISIBILITY ANYHOW. ONCE THIS SNOW SQUALL PASSES...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME IMPROVEMENT...AT LEAST IN VISIBILITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A SW TO NW WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM OBS BRINGING THE RETURN OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. THIS WILL RESUME THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND OCCASIONALVISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE TRIES TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY...AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EASTWARD. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009- 015-074-076. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014- 016-020>023-073-075. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.