Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290120 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 920 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT. SW FLOW ABOVE H600 CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT RAGGED WESTERN EDGE OF UPPER CLOUD SHIELD TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT DECREASE IN SKY COVERAGE. UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO THIS THINKING. MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY UPWARD...GIVEN CLOUDS AND LAMP GUIDANCE. CL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. SYNOPTIC MODELS NOW SHOW PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE EAST OF THE WV/MD RIDGES...ALTHOUGH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PULLED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER IN THE RIDGES TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SKIES WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND PRODUCING MORE RAIN WHILE IT IS FARTHER TO THE NORTH...BUT WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERING BUMPING POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE...BUT MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS RATHER DRY AND IN THE END KEPT THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. CLOUDS COULD LINGER FROM THE SYSTEM INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MDLS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTIONS OF AN EWD DVLPG HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF/STRONG CDFNT LATE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...NWD TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SCENARIO OF DISRUPTED DYNAMICS AS THE SYSTEMS CROSSES THE UPR OHIO REGION. DESPITE THIS SYSTEM BEING THE NXT BEST CHC FOR PCPN...POPS WL RMN IN THE CHC CATEGORY UNTIL FURTHER MATURATION OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPS IS HIGHER...BUT THE COLD SURGE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND RAPID MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS IS ANTICIPATED AFTR NXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN APCHG MD/UPR LVL TROF WL BRING CI TO AREA PORTS TNGT...WITH SCT SC/CU MON. VFR IS EXPD TO CONT...THOUGH SOME PTCHY MVFR/IFR FG IS EXPD ERLY MON MRNG MAINLY N AND W OF PIT. FKL/DUJ HAVE THE BEST CHC AT LIFR AS THE SFC BCMS SATURATED DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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