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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181850
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHWRS AND TSTMS DVLPG THIS AFTN IN GOOD CVRG ALONG RDGS IN ERN
ZONES. A FEW STORMS ALSO DVLPG FARTHER W. THIS CNVCTN IS FORMING
IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTBY...SO
WHILE THE STORMS WILL CONT THIS AFTN...THEY ARE XPCD TO HAVE
LITTLE LONGEVITY. WARM AIR ADVCTN AND SELY LOW-LVL FLOW MAY
SUPPORT SHWRS IN THE MTNS OVNGT...WHERE HIGH POPS WERE RETAINED
TNGT.

INCRG BNDRY LYR MSTR OVNGT ALSO WILL AID IN GENERATION OF
STRATUS. CLDY SKIES XPCD TO DVLP TWD MIDNGT...WHICH WILL AID IN
RETARDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINIMA IN MID 50S-LWR 60S XPCD AS A
RESULT.

DECAYING UPR LOW WILL LINGER ON SUN WITH VERY MOIST AMS BCMG
BETTER SITUATED ACRS FCST AREA. RGN WILL BE WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH
SHWRS AND TSTMS XPCD TO INCR IN CVRG WITH ONLY MODEST HEATING
REQUIRED. MAXIMA WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE TDA SUBJECT TO DEG OF
CLD CVR THAT RMNS SUN MRNG.          UPDATE...KRAMAR
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE DISTRICT LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY REDUCING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS...BUT PRODUCING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST
ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDS XPCD TDA. SHWRS WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM SRN OH TWD THE ERN
OH TERMINALS...BUT THESE TOO WILL BE GENLY VFR. COMBINATION OF INCRG
MSTR AND COOLING OVNGT TEMPS LKLY WILL LEAD TO STRATUS LYR NR 1.5-
2.5 KFT LATE TNGT THRU MRNG. UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN VSBY
RESTRICTIONS OWING TO PERSISTENT OVNGT WIND. IF WIND DIES...VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL BE PSBL AT MANY TERMINALS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE WILL PRECLUDE FOG INCLUSION ATTM.   UPDATE...KRAMAR

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNALLY-GENERATED SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BCM
INCRGLY LKLY DURG THE FIRST HALF OF THE WK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$