Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 310928 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 528 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS TOWARD RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR. OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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