Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 011911 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 311 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTH TODAY. A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SETTLES IN OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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COLD FRONT WILL MAIN SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WHILE THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS MADE IT WELL INTO OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. HAVE UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE LOW CUTS OFF THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHERE THE RAP AND THE HRRR MAINTAIN QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TUCKER AND GARRETT WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUTOFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY REGIONS...WHICH WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES... ESPECIALLY FROM PIT SOUTH INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH CLOUDS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE PATTERN WILL BREAK BRIEFLY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ARE UNLIKELY TO GO ABOVE 3KFT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND VERY LITTLE MIXING TO SCATTER OUT OR LIFT THE CLOUD DECK. SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO SEVERAL TAF SITES SOUTH OF PIT THIS EVE WHICH COULD SUPPORT PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE SAYING OTHERWISE. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PESSIMISTIC TREND WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OVER TENNESSEE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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