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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 140453
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1253 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
THE FREEZING MARK IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH. FROST ADVY/FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES INTO DAYBREAK.
WRM AIR ADVCTN AND INCRG MID LVL MOISTURE WL BRING MORE CLDS AND
LOW SHWR CHCS TODAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WMFNT WILL CROSS RGN TONIGHT...LEADING TO SGFNT INCR IN MSTR AND
TEMPS FOR WED. WIND XPCD TO VEER TO WSWLY BY WED AFTN...WHICH WILL
CONT TO ADVCT MSTR INTO RGN AND WILL AID IN MAXIMA REACHING LWR
80S ACRS MUCH OF RGN. SLOWLY-ADVCG CDFNT WILL APRCH FCST AREA WED
AFTN.

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACT ON COMPARABLY MODEST INSTBY ALONG
THIS CDFNT AND WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN-EVE. POPS
WERE INCRD SGFNTLY FROM PREV FCST. SVR WX POTL WILL BE LMTD BY DEG
OF MSTR...WHICH LKLY WILL BE LWR THAN WHAT APPEARS IN THE MODELS.
IF RICH MSTR DOES MATERIALIZE AS FCSTD IN MODELS...INSTBY WILL BE
GREATER...AND SVR WX WILL BE PSBL.   UPDATE...KRAMAR-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY CHG IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCR POPS ON MON. MSTR-RICH WARM
SECTOR WILL BE FOUND ACRS MUCH OF THE RGN IN ADVC OF A POTENT H5
TROF EJECTING FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE OHVLY. FAVORABLY-TIMED
WAVE...STG H5 FLOW AND MDT INSTBY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM DVLPMT
MON AFTN-MON NGT. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.  UPDATE...KRAMAR

THE MODELS AGREE IN A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH
AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE AND MOVES IT EASTWARD FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INHERENT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW...DECREASING CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...OPTED TO
KEEP NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH
IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH BOTH HPC/MEX GUIDANCE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS LGT WNDS EXPD TNGT AS HIGH PRES BLDS IN. VFR SHOULD CONT
INTO TUE ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLDS WL BE INCRG. WNDS EXPD TO PICK
UP OUT OF THE S TUE AT 5-10KT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WL BRING PSBL RESTRNS WED INTO THU. VFR EXP FRI
WITH INCRG SHWR/TSTM CHCS FOR SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --MD...NONE.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-040-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ041.
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
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