Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 021436 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1036 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SPLAYED OUT TO OUR SOUTH. THE GRADIENT IN DEWPOINTS ACROSS THIS FRONT IS PALPABLE WITH 50S GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH...AND UPPER 60S LURKING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. GIVEN OUR POSITION TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA AS A FAIRLY WEAK AND HARDLY DISCERNIBLE SHORT WAVE WORKS DOWN THE FRONT. AS CLOUDS REMAIN IN CONTROL...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH IS JUST A TAD SHORT OF THE NORMAL LOWER 80S IN EARLY JULY. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES. ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOCAL FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WITH FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY MORNING...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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