Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
131 FXUS61 KPBZ 170934 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 434 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Another upper level disturbance will result in scattered light precipitation developing later this afternoon. Warmer temperatures, cloudy skies, and light drizzle can be expected Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Fog development north of a stationary boundary running roughly along I-80 will diminish by mid-morning as southwesterly flow increases ahead of an approaching shortwave out of the midwest. This feature will lift the aforementioned boundary north of the forecast area as a warm front. Scattered showers are expected later in the afternoon and into the evening as the mid-level feature passes over. Counties north of Pittsburgh may see mixed precipitation but surface temperatures are expected to be warm enough that no problems are anticipated.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Latest guidance shows decent continuity with previous runs with zonal flow aloft and the forecast area remaining within the warm sector through Tuesday. Weak forcing and saturated lower levels also continue to be forecast...and expect extensive cloud coverage, patchy drizzle, and periods of light rain to persist through the period. Despite expected cloud cover, warm advection should lead to temperatures at least near seasonal averages with a somewhat limited diurnal range through Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tuesday night the upper level flow will amplify and the aforementioned boundary is progged drop back south over the area...finally scouring low-level moisture but also resulting in temperatures 10 degrees lower on Wednesday. Some locations may see some light snow Wednesday but no significant accumulations are expected. Drier and warmer conditions are expected the latter part of the week as zonal flow is reestablished. Models have slowed the arrival of the next system to impact the region to late Friday early Saturday. Changes in the extended were largely based on latest Superblend guidance.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mostly clear skies and broad dewpoint depressions will mean VFR conditions will persist through the morning for most terminals. However, valley fog spreading north to south through NW PA will continue to impact FKL and DUJ through daybreak. In addition to this fog, the low stratus entering southwest NY could creep back southward and over these two northern ports. VFR is expected after mid-morning Sunday areawide through the afternoon. Condition deterioration can be expected by Sunday evening as another disturbance spreads light precipitation over area terminals. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely through Tuesday, as abundant low-level moisture may become trapped underneath an inversion for an extended period. IFR conditions are possible at times. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.