Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301842 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 242 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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WITH COOL AIR ALOFT...STRATOCU IS EXPD TO CONT INTO THE EVE...THOUGH THESE SHOULD DCR SOME ERLY THIS EVE AS WK HIGH PRES BLDS IN. SOME ISOLD LGT SHWRS N-E OF PIT SHOULD DSPT AS WELL WITH THE BLDG HIGH. CLDS WL INCR AGAIN LTR TNGT AHD OF THE NXT ADVNG SHRTWV. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL AVGS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A DEEPENING UPR TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WL ADVN ACRS THE GT LKS FRI WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS FRI. THE DEEP UPR TROF WL RMN ACRS THE ERN CONUS SAT WITH A MOISTURE SWATH AND OMEGA ACRS MUCH OF THE RGN...KEEPING CHCS FOR PCPN. COLDER AIR IS EXPD TO BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE INITIAL SFC LOW AS N-NE FLOW DVLPS FRI NGT INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LTL SNW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHWRS AT TIMES SAT MRNG...BUT A WRM BNDRY LYR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL AND PREVENT ANY ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. IN THE RIDGES...EXP A GRDL CHG OVR TO MAINLY SNW SAT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENLY EXP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN GRASSY AREAS BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DMNSH SAT NGT. THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS LTD WITH N-NE FLOW...AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO DMNSH BY THE TIME NW UPSLOPE FLOW DVLPS. BLDG HIGH PRES AND DRY WEA IS PROGGED FOR SUN. TEMPS SHOULD AVG BLO SEASONAL LVLS THRU THE WKEND.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS. A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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STRATOCU BLANKET WL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE UPR OH TERMINALS INTO THIS EVE...BUT GENL VFR/HIGH END MVFR WL BE PREDOMINATE. OTHRWISE...LGT SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SW AND S LATE TNGT AS UPSTREAM SHRTWV ADVNS...BUT GENL CONDITION DETERIORATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THAT SYSTEM UNTIL WELL AFTR DAYBREAK FRIDAY. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVE AS DEEPENING LOW PRES SHUNTS A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH REGION. ENSUING UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND STRATOCU POTENTIAL UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 07/15

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