-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200510
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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THE RISK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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LINGERING SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...HAVE REMOVED POPS AND LOWERED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN
HALF.

REALLY VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TODAY...TO THAT WHICH WE
EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERN RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BREAK FROM THE MAIN WAVE AND
MOVE TOWARD MY SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
TO SPARK A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PLENTY UNSTABLE TODAY...HOWEVER STRONG WAA
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CAP...PREVENTING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. ADDITIONALLY...THE 50H RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE NAM AND GFS HAD BOTH DONE WELL WITH HIGH
TEMPS...SO WILL LEAN CLOSE ON THESE NUMBERS FOR THE FORECAST.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE AS THERE IS NO FORCING COMPONENT OR
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO GET THINGS ROLLING. THINK THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE THE SITUATION IS TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.

EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WED AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AS A RESULT OF LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
FEATURE AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD INTO THE EVE...EXCPT FOR DUJ WHERE IFR CIGS ARE
EXPD TO CONT OVRNGT. ELSW...COULD SEE SOME PTCHY STRATUS/MVFR BR
DVLPG OVRNGT. EXTENT OF THE STRATUS IS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY PLACES TO SEE CIGS S-E OF PIT...AS WELL AS FKL/DUJ. CONDS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR ACRS THE RGN MON MRNG. AN EXITING UPR LVL
WAVE MAY BRING A SHWR/TSTM E OF PIT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHC FOR SHWR/TSTMS WL RETURN TUE AFTN AND INCR THRU THU EVE AS A
CDFNT APRCHS AND MOVES THRU. BLDG HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDS EXPD
FRI.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$