Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 192116 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 416 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Snow showers will diminish after midnight as the upper low moves east. Dry and seasonal conditions are expected through midweek before another cold front crosses.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Periods of snow will continue with sufficient lift from a passing shortwave and strong cold advection through midnight. Saturation through the snow growth zone will provide for a brief period of efficient snowfall production, which could produce 2-3 inches of snow north of I-80 and in the WV/MD mountains. Considering the short window and the borderline amounts, will opt not to issue a winter weather advisory at this time. Shortwave will depart tonight, though nw flow will likely keep some snow shower activity into the early morning before upper level and surface high pressure builds overhead. The aforementioned high pressure will help to shunt moisture below efficient snow growth, thus, with minimal accumulation expected after midnight. Cloud cover will start to diminish, but wind will remain elevated enough to keep radiative cooling at a minimum. Dry conditions are expected Monday with some moderation in temperature due to sunshine and warm advection.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday, with highs getting closer to seasonal norms ahead of an approaching cold front, progged for passage Tuesday night. The models have been hinting to a slightly more amplified shortwave passage, but this would still keep moist of the lift focused over the northern half of the region. Kept PoPs rather consistent for now, with adjustments needed as guidance comes more in line with a solution. Temperatures will cool back down - and run about 10 degrees below average Wednesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Broad troughing pattern will remain in place through the weekend with fast moving systems progged Friday and Saturday. Similar to Wednesday, most of the lift remains situated north so other than some continued colder than average temperatures, PoPs were kept rather low.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Scattered to numerous snow showers will continue into the evening hours. Expect general MVFR with lcl IFR in decent snow cells. Sfc wind has diminished, but gusts to around 20kt can be expected during the eve. Improvement is forecast on Monday with building high pressure. .Outlook... Restriction potential returns with a Tue cold front and subsequent upper troughing through mid week.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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