Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210156 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 956 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WITH LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. LITTLE CHANGE TO POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BACK EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST. ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SINKING SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. TAX && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR AT THE START...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH. HAVE ALL SITES DROPPING TO MVFR...AND SEVERAL SHOULD REACH IFR ON EITHER A PREVAILING OR TEMPORARY BASIS AFTER 06Z OR SO. THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE IMPROVMENT TO VFR LATE IN THE TAFS BUT COULD EASILY SEE MVFR LINGER. LIGHT S/SW WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO W BY 12Z AND EVEN TURN WNW BY AFTERNOON. .AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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