Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 041004 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 604 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COOL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE NEAR DAWN UPDATE BASED ON OBS AND NEAR TERM MODEL DATA. PREVIOUS...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF LATER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TONIGHT TOWARD KENTUCKY...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE UNDER DEFORMATION ZONE ON FRONT SIDE OF LOW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR THE LONG TERM FCST. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... OTHER THAN ISOLATED ERLY MRNG FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCT LGT SHOWERS FOR WHICH A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED TODAY...THOUGH BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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