Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 280216
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1016 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
A series of crossing disturbances will keep rain in the forecast
into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A late eve update was issued to adjust pops for isolated showers
which continue to fire near the semi-stationary boundary near the
I 70 corridor.
On Thursday, models agree that another shortwave will move along
that boundary and further increase shower and thunderstorm
chances as the afternoon progresses. Best upward omega is progged
toward the southeast ridges, so highest pops were forecast in that
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Model differences continue in regards as to where the highest QPF
will reside as the shortwave moves east Thursday night and into
Friday. The boundary will move north, causing dew points to rise
as it pulls deep moisture into areas south and east of Pittsburgh
according to adjusted RFC and QPF. Heaviest rainfall potential is
expected to be suppressed south and east of the ridges for now.
However, the rainfall potential must be monitored as rainfall and
rainfall rates could create the need for a flash flood watch over
the southeast. If a flash flood watch does occur, it will not
occur until late Friday night. Thus, no watch will be issued at
The system will slowly exit the forecasting area on Friday,
decreasing POPs northwest to southeast across the region.
A weak upper level trough with multiple shortwaves will cross the
region through Saturday and will keep shower and thunderstorm
chances high and conditions humid.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A series of shortwaves moving through the weak trough over the
eastern CONUS will support periodic rain chances and seasonal
temperatures into Monday. A weak bubble of surface high pressure
looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers
Tuesday and Wednesday. A modified Superblend was used for much of
the extended period.
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at most sites through the TAF period.
Early this morning restrictions were contained to MGW, and expect
this will be the case again tomorrow morning with restrictions in
fog. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
Thursday, with MGW the only site with enough confidence to
include prevailing rain. All other terminals will have at least a
chance of showers, with enough confidence in thunder to include
VCTS from Pittsburgh and to the east.
.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Broad upper troughing should maintain periodic restriction
potential through Monday.