Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 050556 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1256 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WITH 1245AM UPDATE...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO HOURLY PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS. HIGHER TOTALS HAVE BEEN REPORTED THAN FORECAST EXTENDING FROM ALLEGHENY INTO ARMSTRONG COUNTY...BUT BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS ALREADY A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. NOT SURE THAT SNOW WILL NECESSARILY END MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT THINK THAT AT A MINIMUM IT WILL KEEP RATIOS FROM BECOMING ANY HIGHER. MEASUREMENT AT THE NWS OFFICE YIELD SNOW RATIOS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 10 TO 1. DID BUMP UP TOTALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SLIGHTLY FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THIS DOES NOT IMPACT ANY HEADLINES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE WAVE IN THE CAROLINAS MOVES ALONG A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FOR AREAS IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS ON THE FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SEE THE LEAST SNOWFALL...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH SEEING THE MOST WITH A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT. DID CUT BACK ON SNOW NORTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT SETTING UP. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY END THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE EXITS OFF THE COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BASED ON THE LATEST SREF NUMBERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEATHER PATTERN QUIETS DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKS OUT THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THURS NIGHT AND SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING FROM THE WEST. REMNANT SKY COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH CALM WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF A FRESH SNOW PACK...FOR AT LEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...ALL SIGNS POINT TO DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO CRATER WELL BELOW AVERAGE. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOW AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS HOLDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRI...WHICH WOULD DISRUPT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK THIS ROUTE IS A BIT CONSERVATIVE...AND HAVE HELD LOWS BELOW THOSE NUMBERS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER AND CLEARER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. NAM/ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS RELATIVELY DRY SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE FOLLOWED THIS TO INTRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. POPS WERE FORECAST GENERALLY BELOW CHANCE CLIMO NUMBERS USING GFS TIMING...BUT LONG TERM CONFIDENCE IS MINIMAL WITH DOUBTS ABOUT TIMING AND MOISTURE SUPPLY. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE AND MOS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT. THE RESULTING SNOW AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-068. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>004. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012- 021>023-041.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.