Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 152255 AAA
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
655 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers will taper off across the southeast this
evening. High pressure will keep the area dry on Saturday. A
cold front will bring another round of rain Saturday night.
Colder temperatures Sunday and to begin next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain shower activity will end this evening over the WV ridges.
- Clouds will persist for much of the night.
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Only minor changes for the overnight period. Updated PoPs to
confine them to the WV ridges for a portion of the evening.
Some changes in cloud cover for late tonight. Models are showing
a break in the low clouds as dawn approaches but it fills in
quickly as colder air swings through. Decreased the area of
clearing. This also brought overnight lows up a couple of
degrees. Rest of forecast in good shape.
Previous discussion...
Cloud cover is projected to remain for much of the night, though
there could be some clearing across portions of eastern Ohio, as
there is larger spread for values in this region. Cold
advection and cloud cover will be the contributing factors to
temperatures, which should be much closer to seasonal values
overnight - in the low to mid 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES:
- High pressure will keep much of Saturday dry with diminishing
cloud cover.
- Shower chances return with a Saturday night cold front
- Temperatures Saturday should be warmer than average, returning
to seasonal appropriate temperatures Sunday.
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Weak high pressure will maintain dry conditions for much of
Saturday. With plenty of insolation and weak warm advection in
advance of the next cold front, temperatures Saturday should
approach 60 degrees.
Digging trough will pivot a cold front across the region
Saturday night. Since most of the large-scale lift will be
generally north of Pittsburgh, the highest precipitation
probabilities are set around and north of I-80, where there is a
>50% chance of measurable (0.01 inches) of precipitation.
Behind the front, will be the return of more typical weather for
the upper Ohio Valley in Spring - cloudy conditions and
temperatures in the 50`s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Colder pattern returns Sunday into Monday with a large
advancing trough.
- Snow shower chances return Monday and Tuesday
- Wind chill values will be abnormally cold early Tuesday (teens
in the lower elevations/single digits to below zero in the
higher terrain).
- Above average temperatures return mid-week.
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Long range ensemble models favor a cold pattern across the Ohio
River Valley early next week as a large upper-level trough
advances across the Great Lakes. Arctic air will drive
high and low temperatures to be below average by a few degrees.
With northwest flow, expect snow showers to return due to lake
enhancement and upsloping. With the current sun angle, snow
shower accumulation will likely be confided to the overnight
period and be generally focused near I-80 and elevations above
2kft. Probability of 0.1 inches of snow early Monday morning is
70% or higher in these concentrated areas.
With a strong gradient wind associated with the low and cold
advection, expected wind chill values to be abnormally cold
early Tuesday. Teens in the lower terrain, single digits to
below freezing in the ridges of PA/WV.
Models have been consistent that near to above average
temperatures will return mid-week with a building ridge to our
west.
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.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Widespread MVFR ceilings are ongoing this afternoon in the wake
of a cold frontal passage. These will begin to slowly lift
overnight from the west -- more slowly than previous guidance
suggested. Most of the area should return to VFR by 12z
Saturday, PIT by around 06z. Ceilings will continue to lift
early Saturday, eventually scattering out by late morning.
Hi-res ensemble guidance continues to show a 40-60% probability
for MVFR/IFR fog development early Saturday morning across
northeastern OH and northwestern PA (generally northwest of PIT)
between roughly 08Z and 14Z. Lower probabilities (10-30%) exist
at most of our area terminals, and longer lingering cloud cover
will also help to hamper fog development, so again left vsby
restrictions out of the TAFs for this cycle.
Northwest winds will back to more southwesterly Saturday
morning before becoming breezy again in the afternoon.
.Outlook...
Restrictions and showers return Saturday night into early
Sunday with a crossing cold front. Restrictions and scattered
snow showers return Monday and Tuesday with another crossing
cold front and subsequent upper troughing.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22/34
NEAR TERM...22/34
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Cermak/Rackley