Area Forecast Discussion
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391 FXUS61 KPBZ 130307 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1007 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW CROSSING INTO WESTERN PA AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE AREA. LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW SNOW QUICKLY BACKING OFF BEHIND THE FRONT AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE LAKES SHOULD MODIFY THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 700MB AND ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN THE WIND PROFILE SNOW WILL CONTINUE HERE THROUGH SATURDAY BUT PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN PUSHES THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE RIDGES IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH PERIODS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW. SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY 06Z. ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048- 049-057>059-068-069. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050. PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004- 012. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021- 509>514. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ512>514.
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