Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 211940 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 340 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A WARM...HUMID AIRMASS. WHILE THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEP THE REGION CAPPED AROUND 10KFT EACH AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ALOFT. THUS...FELT COMFORTABLE WITH CARRYING LOW CHANCE POPS...GENERALLY ESE OF PIT FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...IN THE LOW 60`S WITH DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING. SOME FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS GET VERY CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES TOMORROW...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIP A BIT FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH THE NAM NOW THE FASTEST. OPTED TO GENERALLY IGNORE THE NAM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. WITH THESE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES HOWEVER...OPTED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS AND NO HIGHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A LARGER UPPER TROUGH. THE NE FLOW AND COOLER 850HPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING THE RETURN OF A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING BUT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS FIELDS DISSIPATE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP WITH A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.