Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240513 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 113 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE BY EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OPTIMAL RADIATION COOLING IS ALSO UNOBTAINABLE DUE TO THE SHORT NIGHTS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND INCREASES CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM SUNDAYS NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE NORTH A BIT WEST OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE REFRAIN THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST..AND HAVE THEREFORE PULLED CHANCE POPS MONDAYS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST. 12KM TAM SHOWS RAIN MOVING IN MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONSIDERING THE 4KM NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE...HAVE DECIDED TO BACK OFF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION AND STICK CLOSER TO THE DIURNAL TREND TO PRECIPITATION DEPICTED BY THE SREF/ECMWF. AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY MIGHT FINALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A MID SUMMER PATTERN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRINGS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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