-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1200 AM UPDATE...
WILL TAKE OUT ALL PRECIP OVERNIGHT. VERY LITTLE FORCING AVAILABLE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING AS WELL AND WILL INSERT CLEARING THAN
CLOUDING BACK IN TOWARDS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY FOG
AND AREAS OF FOG WHERE RAINED TODAY. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS FOR
TOMORROW BASED ON LASTED GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS WL BE RETAINED IN THE OVRNGT FORECAST AS BROAD
UPR LOW PRES CNTRD OVR THE LOWER OH VALLEY SLIDES EWD. SFC
DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED OVR MUCH OF THE REGION...EXPECIALLY OVR
AREAS SOUTH OF PIT WHERE EVE RAIN WAS FOCUSED NR INVERTED
TROF/WASHED OUT FRONT. FOG MENTION WAS THUS ADDED FOR THE TNGT AND
EARLY SUNDAY PROGNOSIS.

SIMILAR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED SUN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV
CONTS TO SLOWLY DIG EWD. I.E. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWR/TSTM CHCS
MAINLY S OF I 80. TEMPS WL REMAIN ABV SEASONAL AVGS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID AND UPR LVL SHRTWV WL CONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E...PUSHING E OF
THE AREA MON NGT. EXP SHWRS/TSTM CHCS TO CONT...ESP IN THE AFTN
AND ERLY EVE DURING BEST PERIOD OF INSTAB. TEMPS EXPD TO BE WELL
ABV SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWR/TSTM CHCS WL CONT INTO WED. BEST
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY IS EXPD TO BE N OF THE AREA ALG A SFC BOUNDARY.
THE NEXT CDFNT IS EXPD TO MOVE ACRS THE RGN THU INTO THU NGT CONTG
THE SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRES WL BUILD IN AFT FROPA. MUCH ABV AVG
TEMPS ARE EXPD TO FALL TO SEASONAL LVLS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

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LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TODAY. MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AT ALL PORTS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, CURRENTLY
THE ONLY MVFR CLOUDS ARE THOSE LEAKING OVER THE NORTHERN
RIDGES...EFFECT DUJ AND FKL. FOR THE FORECAST...WILL GO WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT AT THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTS...AND INCLUDE MVFR
FOG AT ZZV AND MGW THROUGH DAWN. AM CONCERNED THAT WE COULD HAVE A
LARGE AREA OF STRATUS BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION...SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAPPENED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. WILL LEAVE THAT TO FUTURE UPDATES DUE
TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT STRATUS TO THE NORTH AND EAST TO DECAY AFTER DAWN RETURNING
ALL PORTS TO VFR. WITH NO REAL WAVE OR BOUNDARY TO SINK MY TEETH
INTO...WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF PRECIP. A SHOWER OR STORM COULD
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNALLY SPPRTED
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$