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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TOWARD INTERSTATE 80 OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MAINLY VIRGA ON RADAR AS DRY LOW LEVELS EVAPORATING MOST PRECIP BUT
LEFT A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH LATE TONIGHT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO
REGION WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS REGION AS FRONT
PASSES.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WITH SURFACE RIDGE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM I-70
SOUTH WITH LESSENING CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GOOD PUSH OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS DOWN CLOSER TO NEW GFS MOS.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN BUT DIFFER IN LOCATION AND SET
UP OF BOUNDARY ON THE WEEKEND. KEPT IN NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POP FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD KEEPING IT IN LINE WITH MEX GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND MID-CLOUD DECK CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$