-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 140151
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
951 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SKIES HAVE GONE MCLR AS HIGH PRES BLDS IN. STLT/SFC OBS SHOWING
SOME CI MOVG SEWD INTO THE RGN...AND THESE SHOULD GRDLY INCR TNGT.
EVEN WITH CI...LOWERED OVRNGT LOWS A DEG OR 2 AS MANY AREAS HAVE
ALREADY DECOUPLED AND STARTED THE TEMP DROP. KEPT FROST ADVY/FREEZE
WARNING AS IS. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST FREEZE POTENTIAL FM NR THE OH
BORDER AND E...WITH FROST W. WRM AIR ADVCTN AND INCRG MID LVL
MOISTURE WL BRING MORE CLDS AND LOW SHWR CHCS TUE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WMFNT WILL CROSS RGN TUE NGT...LEADING TO SGFNT INCR IN MSTR AND
TEMPS FOR WED. WIND XPCD TO VEER TO WSWLY BY WED AFTN...WHICH WILL
CONT TO ADVCT MSTR INTO RGN AND WILL AID IN MAXIMA REACHING LWR
80S ACRS MUCH OF RGN. SLOWLY-ADVCG CDFNT WILL APRCH FCST AREA WED
AFTN.

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACT ON COMPARABLY MODEST INSTBY ALONG
THIS CDFNT AND WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN-EVE. POPS
WERE INCRD SGFNTLY FROM PREV FCST. SVR WX POTL WILL BE LMTD BY DEG
OF MSTR...WHICH LKLY WILL BE LWR THAN WHAT APPEARS IN THE MODELS.
IF RICH MSTR DOES MATERIALIZE AS FCSTD IN MODELS...INSTBY WILL BE
GREATER...AND SVR WX WILL BE PSBL.   UPDATE...KRAMAR

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARY CHG IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCR POPS ON MON. MSTR-RICH WARM
SECTOR WILL BE FOUND ACRS MUCH OF THE RGN IN ADVC OF A POTENT H5
TROF EJECTING FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE OHVLY. FAVORABLY-TIMED
WAVE...STG H5 FLOW AND MDT INSTBY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM DVLPMT
MON AFTN-MON NGT. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.  UPDATE...KRAMAR

THE MODELS AGREE IN A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH
AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE AND MOVES IT EASTWARD FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INHERENT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW...DECREASING CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...OPTED TO
KEEP NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH
IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH BOTH HPC/MEX GUIDANCE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDS LGT WNDS EXPD TNGT AS HIGH PRES BLDS IN. VFR SHOULD CONT
INTO TUE ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLDS WL BE INCRG. WNDS EXPD TO PICK
UP OUT OF THE S TUE AT 5-10KT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WL BRING PSBL RESTRNS WED INTO THU. VFR EXP FRI
WITH INCRG SHWR/TSTM CHCS FOR SAT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ039-040-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023.

&&

$$

07/KRAMER