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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190727
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
327 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A SERIES OF SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...HOWEVER...
ELSEWHERE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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H5 WAVE EMBEDDED IN EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TO SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY. HI RES WINDOW AND HRRR BOTH ADVERTISING WEAK
FIELDS FOR PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE FOCUS. SHOULD BE WIDELY ACTIVITY WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZATION. SINCE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA...WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST HALF OF CWA FOR TODAY. GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE...SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE FORCING
WESTERN HALF. SREF CALIBRATED THUNDER FIELD SUGGESTING A LITTLE
HIGHER PROBABILITY TODAY BUT STILL LIMITED DYNAMICS. HOWEVER
CONTINUED WITH THUNDER CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. CLOUDS
ERODING THIS MORNING WITH EXCEPTION OF SC DECK MOUNTAINS AND
EAST. WITH PROBABLE CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON ...WENT WITH PARTLY
SUNNY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER. EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE SCATTERED. HOWEVER...FLOW WEAK ALOFT DUE TO OPENED
WAVE AND AREAS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST UP
TO 1.6 INCHES. AS A RESULT, ANY SLOW MOVING CELL COULD PRODUCE
CLOSE TO AN INCH IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS.

ALSO...LOOKS LIKE GARRETT...PARTS OF PRESTON AND TUCKER COULD BE
(IN-CLOUD/FOG) THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WIND...VISIBILITIES DOWN.
WILL CARRY AREAS DENSE FOG AND ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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MAIN UPPER LEVEL H5 WAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS H5 RIDGE TO ACTUALLY BUILD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. WENT OPTIMISTIC AND DROPPED PRECIP CHANCES TO SLIGHT OR
BELOW (CONTINUED DIURNAL TREND AS WELL).
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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H5 RIDGE PUSHES EAST WITH VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES. SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM. BEST
CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME ON THURSDAY WITH APPROACH OF
MIDWEST SYSTEM. SYSTEM SHOULD BE FINALLY CLEARING OUR REGION BY
LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TODAY. MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AT ALL PORTS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, CURRENTLY
THE ONLY MVFR CLOUDS ARE THOSE LEAKING OVER THE NORTHERN
RIDGES...EFFECT DUJ AND FKL. FOR THE FORECAST...WILL GO WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT AT THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTS...AND INCLUDE MVFR
FOG AT ZZV AND MGW THROUGH DAWN. AM CONCERNED THAT WE COULD HAVE A
LARGE AREA OF STRATUS BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION...SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAPPENED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. WILL LEAVE THAT TO FUTURE UPDATES DUE
TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT STRATUS TO THE NORTH AND EAST TO DECAY AFTER DAWN RETURNING
ALL PORTS TO VFR. WITH NO REAL WAVE OR BOUNDARY TO SINK MY TEETH
INTO...WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF PRECIP. A SHOWER OR STORM COULD
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNALLY SPPRTED
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$