000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
418 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REALLY VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TODAY...TO THAT WHICH WE
SAW OVER THE PAST WEEKEND. EASTERN U.S. RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
MODELS ARE HINTING THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BREAK FROM THE MAIN
WAVE AND MOVE TOWARD MY SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PLENTY UNSTABLE TODAY...HOWEVER STRONG WAA
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CAP...PREVENTING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. ADDITIONALLY...THE 50H RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE NAM AND GFS HAD BOTH DONE WELL WITH HIGH
TEMPS...SO WILL LEAN CLOSE ON THESE NUMBERS FOR THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE AS THERE IS NO FORCING COMPONENT OR
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO GET THINGS ROLLING. THINK THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE THE SITUATION IS TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.

EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WED AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AS A RESULT OF LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
FEATURE AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE EVENING SEEM TO HAVE DISSIPATED...SO
EXPECT THAT THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. IFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT DUJ...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE STRATUS WILL MANAGE TO PUSH ANY
FARTHER TO THE WEST. HAVE CONTINUED SCT IFR CIGS NEAR DAWN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. AN EXITING UPR
LVL WAVE MAY BRING A SHWR/TSTM E OF PIT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED THIS IN THE 30
HOUR TAF FOR PIT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHC FOR SHWR/TSTMS WL RETURN TUE AFTN AND INCR THRU THU EVE AS A
CDFNT APRCHS AND MOVES THRU. BLDG HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDS EXPD
FRI.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$