Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 100200 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1000 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASING RAPIDLY FROM THE PREVIOUS STILL ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS. JUST A FEW DISCRETE CELLS REMAIN OVER OHIO AND NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FADE AS SUPPORT DIMINISHES FURTHER IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS IS COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT ABOVE 750 MB...VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES SEEM TO RESULT IN UPDRAFTS BEING UNABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES OUTSIDE OF THE REGION OF LAKE ERIE...WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS A BIT HIGHER THAN FARTHER SOUTH. AS SUCH...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS CONTINUED FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70. FRIES
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD IN THRU FRI WITH NR OR SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS. A WK UPR TROF WL CROSS THE GT LKS THU...BUT ONLY AREA THAT MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE/SPPRT FOR LOW CHC POPS FOR SHWRS WL BE IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. THE HIGH WL SHIFT E SAT WITH SRLY FLOW AND WRMG TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY UNTIL WE COOL DOWN AND DRY OUT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR CALM WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FROM THE ENTIRE GUIDANCE SUITE TO INSERT IFR FG AT HISTORICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF ZZV...MGW...HLG...AND FKL. KEPT THE REMAINING AIRPORTS AT MVFR OR BETTER DUE TO LACK OF A NEAR BY WATER SOURCE...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST. ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 13-15Z...WITH VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THINK THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL TERMINALS. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.