Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 282325
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
725 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
Warm temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
are expected through the weekend. High pressure should result in
dry weather for Memorial Day.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Made some minor updates to PoPs and temperature this evening.
The most activity has been seen in the Laurel Highlands with some
localized heavy rainfall totals in Fayette County. The rest of the
region has seen more isolated activity. Expect a typical diurnal
downward trend towards sunset, with most activity ceasing by 03Z
Previous discussion for tomorrow...
Increased moisture in southerly flow along with a crossing
shortwave will result in better thunderstorm coverage beginning Sunday
afternoon and tapering off overnight after the passage of the
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Building surface high pressure should bring mainly dry weather
for Memorial Day and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to average
around 10 degrees above seasonal levels.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure across the eastern United States should allow for
dry weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF are
coming in better agreement that an upper level trough and associated
cold front will approach the region late Thursday into Friday and
have bumped up pops slightly. However, the ECMWF is more
progressive with pushing precipitation to the east by late Friday,
while the GFS and GEFS continue the chance of showers in
Saturday. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin to trend
toward the seasonal average by the weekend.
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR conditions expected for most ports through the operational TAF
period as a ridge of high pressure remains in place. A few
lingering showers this evening will dwindle with the setting sun.
Light surface flow and no change in air mass will mean similar
conditions overnight as 24 hours ago. Not expecting fog to
develop...save for the few locations where rain managed to fall
over the airfield...KLBE and KFKL. Have mentioned MVFR visibility
restrictions for these two locations.
Thunderstorm coverage should increase Sunday afternoon with a
passing shortwave trough...so carrying VCTS in most TAFs.
.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be with a front
will approach the region late Thursday.
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