Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 012229 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 629 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEARLY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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PRIMARY CHANGE WITH 630PM UPDATE IS TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. WHILE PRIMARY AREA OF RAIN HAS REMAINED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. SYNOPTIC MODELS STILL RESOLVE THIS AREA OF RAIN POORLY...AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW IT DISSIPATING QUICKLY. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT MAY ALSO NEED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS CONSIDERING EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. COLD FRONT WILL MAIN SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WHILE THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS MADE IT WELL INTO OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. HAVE UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE LOW CUTS OFF THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHERE THE RAP AND THE HRRR MAINTAIN QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TUCKER AND GARRETT WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS THINKING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAKING AN EASTWARD TRACK TO OUR NORTH...BEFORE EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BULK OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. SHRA COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AS FRONTAL WAVE EXITS...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES HANGING ON TO ISOLATED SHRA INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME..CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PIT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA WILL THEN EXPAND TO AN AREA SOUTH OF A PHD-LBE LINE ON WEDNESDAY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT. DESPITE MOISTURE CONTENT/PWATS INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ADD A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS PRECIP TOTALS. BY THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGES TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AND A RETURN FEED SETS UP BEHIND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH CENTER. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO RETURN...AND SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST CWA- WIDE. ALSO REINTRODUCED THUNDER CHANCES ON THIS DAY WITH SOME DEEPER CAPE PROFILES STARTING TO SHOW UP ON SOUNDINGS. ACTIVITY WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE TOWARDS THURSDAY EVENING. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. GENERALLY KEPT NUMBERS IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IS PICTURED FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AND LIFT OUT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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DEGRADED CONDITIONS...INCLUDING IFR CEILINGS...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURES REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT LIGHT...BUT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MAY OFFER SOME IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE DAY AND A PESSIMISTIC OVERALL OUTLOOK WAS RETAINED. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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