National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

-- Remove Highlighting --

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 152151
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
551 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A CDFNT WAS DROPPING S ACRS THE RGN. MDLS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO
HIGH ON DEW PTS WHICH IS CAUSING THEM TO BE OVERDONE ON
PCPN/INSTAB. LATEST STLT/MESO/RADAR TRENDS SHOW AVAIL CAPE...BUT
STG CIN ACRS THE RGN DUE TO CAPPING. STILL A CHC A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS
COULD DVLPD THRU ERLY EVE S OF PIT BUT POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IS
DCRG. THE FNT SHOULD STALL NR THE OH RIVER INTO WV THU...AND WL
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FOR AREAS WELL S OF PIT.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL GET A BIT OF A PUSH SOUTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY AIR ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MODELS AGAIN HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING
AND MOVEMENT BACK NORTHWARD OF THE FRONT ACROSS REGION. DID NOT
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO CHANCE POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CERTAINTY WITH PLACEMENT OF FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND
OF MODEL MOS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH BY THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
PATTERN BUT DIFFER IN LOCATION OF BOUNDARY ON THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PD AS A CDFNT SLIDES ACRS THE UPR
OH REGION AND STALLS OVR WV. EXCEPTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ZZV AND
MGW AS SHWR CHCS WL PLAGUE THOSE PORTS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE
STALLED FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

07/15

National Weather Service National Headquarters