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289
FXUS61 KPBZ 100908
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
508 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A lingering disturbance will keep showers over the area today. Cooler
conditions are anticipated over the weekend with a shift in the
synoptic pattern from the northwest.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers chances continue into today.
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A few showers will continue to cross the area through the
morning today. Precipitation chances will remain across the
region today due the slow progression of the trough over the
Mid- Atlantic, slowed down by ridging just off the east coast.
Probability of higher rainfall amounts (0.25 inches to 0.45
inches) will generally be focused east and southeast of
Pittsburgh due to orographic lift. Elsewhere, showers will only
amount to less than quarter of an inch. Temperatures today will
be a good 5 to 7 degrees below normal.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Below average temperatures are expected with northerly flow.
- Thunderstorms chances return Saturday afternoon.
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Ridging over eastern Ohio Friday night into early Saturday is
expected to decrease precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cooler than average under northerly flow.

By late morning Saturday, a new fast moving shortwave dives
southeast from the Great Lakes and returns showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the region. While a few storms could be
considered strong, the still cooler conditions will only yield
MUCAPE values between 400J/kg to 600J/kg. The trough is expected
to slow and hang up as the surface low center crosses upstate NY
and become impeded by ridging to the east. This will serve to
keep precip over the area through the day on Saturday and even
Saturday night. Temperatures are still expected to be 5 to 7
degrees below normal through the upcoming weekend.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler temperatures arrive by late week with highs in the 60s
  this weekend.
- Rain and thunderstorms are expected to return
  Tuesday/Wednesday.
- Severe storm potential remains low.
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A few light showers may remain along the ridge line early Sunday
as a trough exits east. Otherwise, dry and quiet weather return
for a majority of the day with building high pressure.
Temperatures will be near or slightly below average, depending
on have fast the clouds clear from the west.

Warmer than average temperatures Monday and will continue into
Wednesday as a slow moving low ejects out of the Great Plains
and reinforces southwest flow. As high pressure breaks down off
the Mid-Atlantic, showers and thunderstorms chances increase
Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Day 7 forecast sets the stage for much inconsistency as
plenty of ensemble members provide a diurnal trend to the precip
chances. Some setup high pressure and dry conditions for
Thursday next week. The NBM keep afternoon maxima of pops but
will keep the low chance probability. Long range models at the
moment project a low probability of severe storms given weak
shear and instability.
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&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A gradual decrease in cig height to IFR is expected for most
ports overnight with low level moisture in place, and as an
upper trough approaches the region. ZZV will likely stay MVFR,
with less favorable low level moisture for lower cigs.

Showers are expected to increase again later tonight into part
of Friday as the upper level trough crosses the region. Some
increase in cig heights are expected, though low MVFR should
remain until the rain tapers off from W-E later in the day after
the passage of the trough. VFR is then expected, though DUJ will
likely stay MVFR as the rain lasts until late afternoon/early
evening. Fog will likely develop Friday night where rain ends
late, and clearing occurs in the evening. Included IFR vsbys ar
DUJ for this potential.

.Outlook...
Patchy morning fog restrictions are possible Saturday morning.
Additional restrictions, along with showers and thunderstorms,
will overspread the region again Saturday into part of Saturday
night with a crossing cold front. VFR returns Sunday and Monday
under high pressure, before low pressure returns restriction
potential on Tuesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Hefferan/Shallenberger
AVIATION...WM