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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230119
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MESO/STLT DATA SHOWS INSTAB DMNSHG ACRS THE RGN...ENDG THE THREAT
FOR SVR TSTMS. STILL EXP SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS OVRNGT AS THE NEXT
SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH. A CDFNT WL APRCH FM THE W THU BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. MDL PROGS SHOW INSTAB
SHOULD BE MINIMAL...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN EXPD CLOUD
COVER.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE CDFNT WL EXIT THE AREA THU NGT. A LINGERING UPR LVL TROF WL
KEEP THE CHC FOR SHWRS ACRS THE AREA FRI...THEN HIGH PRES BLDS IN
WITH DRY AND COOL TEMPS EXPD. PTCHY FROST IS PSBL FRI NGT AS TEMPS
DROP INTO THE 30S.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --DRY WEA IS EXPD THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
WRMFNT MAY APRCH BY MID WEEK BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
ANY PCPN MENTION ATTM. TEMPS WL START OUT BLO AVG OVR THE
WEEKEND...THEN MODERATE TO SEASONAL LVLS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E
OF THE AREA AND FLOW TURNS SRLY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
EXP SCT SHWRS ARND INTO THE OVRNGT HOURS AS A SHRTWV MOVES THRU...
BUT GENL VFR WEA IS EXP. A FEW TSTMS ARE PSBL BUT COVG TOO LOW FOR
TAF INCLUSION ATTM. A BRF PD OF MVFR CIGS IS PSBL THU MRNG BEFORE
VFR CU/STRATOCU RETURNS. A CDFNT WL MOVE ACRS THE RGN LATE THU
BRINGING MVFR SHWRS NEAR OR JUST AFT THE END OF THE TAF PD. A TSTM
IS PSBL BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS LOW ATTM.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE LIKELY IN SHWRS THU NGT AFT FROPA. HIGH PRES AND VFR
CONDS EXPD FRI THRU MON.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07

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