Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 071417 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1017 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1010 AM...HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW SHRA POP UP IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...DRIVEN BY BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. HAVE RAISED POPS IN THIS AREA INTO EARLY MORNING AS THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. KEPT AREAS NEAR PIT AND EAST DRY AS MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME. DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE WEST AS WELL WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA. CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...GIVEN EXPECTED PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES...POSSIBLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF AROUND 13K FEET... AND RECENT RAINFALL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES. SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER...BUT WITH SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR PROGGED ANY WELL ORGANIZED STORMS COULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SAW HEAVIER RAIN MONDAY...AND WILL INCLUDE AN HWO MENTION FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED GFS MOS NUMBERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PA INTO CENTRAL OH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE FLOW KEEPING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN NW DRIVING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED USING THE LATEST RAW GFS AND GRIDDED GFS MOS NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST IN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. DAILY CHANCE POPS CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCT MID DECK OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND OVER 10 KTS MID MORNING. TIMING OF FRONT SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH BULK OF SHOWERS OR STORMS AFFECTING PORTS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z. BEFORE THEN GENERAL VFR AFTER ANY PATCHY MORNING FOG LIFTS. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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