Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240114 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 914 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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UPDATED TO REMOVE ALL POPS BEHIND THE ADVANCING DEWPOINT BOUNDARY...AND ALSO TO REDUCE THEM AHEAD OF IT. ONLY A FEW SHRA NOW LEFT AS MANY OF THEM DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DO THINK THIS BOUNDARY LOSES ITS PUSH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS STABILIZE...SO WILL HANG ON TO A VERY LOW POP IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT. SKY GRIDS ARE TRICKY...THINK AREA TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE AN INCREASE WHILE THE NORTHWEST WILL GET A LATE DECREASE WITH ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR. FORMATION OF STRATOCU PATCHES POSSIBLE PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE AND NO CHANGE THERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... LINGERING SLGT...TO CHC NMBRS WERE RETAINED FOR AREAS S AND E OF PIT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY GIVEN THE PROG OF ANOTHER SHRTWV ACRS THE STABILIZING UPR OH REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL BE ADVECTING OVR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PD. TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS NEARING 00Z. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOME STRATOCU IN THE WAKE. SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFERS A PRETTY RAGGED DEPICTION OF THE CLOUD DECK THAT IS FAR FROM UNIFORM. ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE SITES CIGS WILL BOUNCE TONIGHT...THE OVERALL TREND IS TO DROP CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH A FEW CROSSING IFR THRESHOLDS. THURS ANY STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK NEARING 5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THERE ON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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