Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 020429 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1229 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN STABILITY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS CROSSING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOME MID AND UPR CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA. THAT DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER AREAS SOUTH OF I 70 DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS MORNING. FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTH WIND SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES. ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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