Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 040808 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 408 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE DAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. ANOTHER DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WILL LIKELY SEE CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...AND IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE REAL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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IFR/MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAWN...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTS OF DUJ AND LBE. COULD SEE FOG MVFR FOG AT OTHER LOCATIONS... ALTHOUGH LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAKE THE FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD FOG MUCH LESS LIKELY. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN. GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED TRANSMITTER. RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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