Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161736 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 136 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Generally dry and warm weather will continue on Wednesday. Rain is likely with a Thursday cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Although showers have faded across eastern Ohio in the last hour, a weak front along southern counties is expected to touch off a few showers during the afternoon hours. Do not think there will be enough instability around to produce thunderstorms, and have backed off from a chance of thunderstorm mention to a slight chance of showers. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Increasing southwesterly flow late tonight into Thursday will lift a warm front through the area. Shower and storm chances will increase Thursday morning as this boundary swings through. The warm front will lift north of the area Thursday afternoon, with mostly scattered showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector. Shortwave trough will swing through the region Thursday evening into early Friday morning. This wave will increase the coverage and intensity of the convection, particularly during the evening hours. Still seeing some timing differences with this system and models again seem to be suffering from some convective feedback, but a nice area of low-level moisture convergence does develop ahead of the upper level wave thus leading to a continuation of likely PoPs. Wave exits the region Friday morning, with some lingering showers possible over the eastern half of the region. Main cold front does not arrive until late Friday, but by this time, the deep moisture will be well east of the area. A shower or storm is possible along the cold front Friday evening/night, as dewpoints ahead of the boundary remain well into the 60s, but with a lack of upper level support, would think that any development will be isolated. Temperatures Thursday will be a degree or two above normal, then a degree or two below on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure briefly builds in Saturday. Another wave Saturday night could bring additional rain chances, but timing will be unfavorable for much else. Broad high pressure will then build into the region for the remainder of the long term. Temperatures will remain near average, building into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A few isolated showers and storms are possible this afternoon and evening south of PIT, but coverage is such that even VCSH or VCTS are not needed. Otherwise, VFR with scattered CU and light winds. Clouds should begin to increase tonight as a warm front lifts north. This will help to keep fog a bit more limited during the late night/early morning, but still have possible IFR visibility at FKL and DUJ. Any fog will lift by 14Z, with ceilings remaining VFR. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should become more prevalent by the end of the TAF period with daytime heating, and have included VCTS by 16Z at most sites. .Outlook... Widespread restriction potential returns with a Thursday/Friday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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