Area Forecast Discussion
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695 FXUS61 KPBZ 031025 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 625 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE NEAR DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST THIS MRNG. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MAINLY MVFR WITH OCNL IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE WITH AN APPROACHING UPR TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MRNG AS MIXING INCREASES. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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