Area Forecast Discussion
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210 FXUS61 KPBZ 241735 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1235 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Record breaking temperatures today will be followed by a cold front late tonight into early Saturday morning with rain along the front, gusty winds through much of Saturday, and temperatures steadily dropping back to near normal by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Visible satellite imagery shows a developing field of flat cu through the center of the forecast area. These clouds will do little to inhibit insolation this afternoon. Temperatures already in the low to mid 70s should continue to rise through 3-4pm. In many cases, daily records have already been broken and will soon threaten maximum February records. Skies will generally be cloud free this evening as the diurnally driven cu dissipate and the cold front still well off to the west. The cold front will advance into our western zones near midnight as the surface low deepens near Lake Huron. A line of rain showers will accompany the cold front, with embedded thunderstorms possible. Timing of the frontal passage will not be conducive to prolonged severe threat, although modest buoyancy and deep shear along the boundary could support strong to isolated severe elements into eastern Ohio. SPC has maintained a slight risk for severe weather across most Ohio counties and a marginal risk east towards Pittsburgh. Strong and gusty winds are likely as the front passes and again behind as the pressure gradient tightens and cold advection begins. A lull in precipitation is expected behind the front Saturday evening. Eventually, any remaining moisture will be squeezed out in the form of scattered rain showers changing over to snow by Saturday night. Temperatures will fall behind the front tonight, and continue to drop through Saturday with high temperatures occuring very early.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A brief lull in precipitation behind the front will be followed by scattered lake enhanced showers Saturday night under of cold northwesterly flow...eventually changing over to snow with minimal accumulations. precipitation will end by Sunday morning as high pressure builds back in from the west. While temperatures will remain in the 50s Friday night, temps will fall all of Saturday and Saturday night, eventually bottoming out in the 20s. Seasonal highs around 40 are forecast on Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Broad southwest flow aloft will persist through the first half of the period, being then replaced by eastern CONUS trough by the end of the week. Despite the relatively good agreement in the upper level pattern, the deterministic guidance varies in the timing and speed of the more amplified low pressure system for the middle of the week which translated to timing differences thereafter. Thus, opted to stay close to previous forecast with only minor tweaks based on the newest model runs. Temperatures continue to trend above seasonal averages, with values close to 20 degrees above normal before the frontal passage midweek. After that time, we cool back down. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions will continue through midnight, with daytime cumulus and nighttime mid/high clouds. Main issue until then will be wind, as gusts to between 20 and 30 knots out of the southwest will continue through the afternoon. Once gusts subside this evening, overnight low level wind shear is anticipated as winds aloft ramp up ahead of the approaching cold front. This boundary blows through between 06Z and 14Z from west to east. Went with prevailing MVFR conditions for now in showers, but a brief period of IFR is possible, and could be added once timing is firmed up. VCTS maintained for now, but again, prevailing TSRA for an hour or two is possible. Behind the front, winds will slowly shift to SW and then W with time, with continued gusts to 30 knots possible. MVFR ceilings and scattered showers will then linger into the afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions may linger into Saturday evening behind the front in showers and low clouds. Occasional restrictions are again possible Monday through Wednesday in an unsettled pattern.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for climate sites: Thu Fri -------- -------- PIT 70 (1922) 70 (1875,1906) ZZV 64 (2000) 70 (1961) MGW 68 (1996) 75 (1975) DUJ 63 (1985) 60 (1985) HLG 62 (2000) 63 (2016) PHD 69 (1975) 66 (1985) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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