Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251448 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1048 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE MRNG UPDATE. PREVIOUS... SFC HIGH UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT WL KP THE AREA DRY AND THROUGH TNGT. THE COOL NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR SREF MEANS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR INCRSG ...BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR FOR THE TAF PD AFTR LCL AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG MIX OUT THIS MRNG. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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