Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271234 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 834 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A few light showers are expected this morning and late this evening as a slow moving cold front crosses the region. Dry and seasonable conditions are then expected for the remainder of the work week. Rain chances return for the weekend and early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - Lingering showers are possible this morning north of Pittsburgh, PA before 12pm. Light showers may develop along the ridges with upsloping after 6pm. - Near to above average temperatures are expected today due to a stalled front. ------------------------------ 8am Update: Portions of the Ohio River Valley are experiencing a warm start this Wednesday morning due to a stalled frontal boundary. Light showers may develop north of Pittsburgh with lingering low-lvl moisture and weak ascent. With deep southwesterly flow throughout the day, delaying the cold front progression to early tomorrow morning, near to above average temperatures are expected. The higher terrain may experience a few light showers between 6pm to 10pm due to upsloping as sfc winds shift west. However, confidence remains low on this scenario. Cold advection finally arrives tonight as temperatures dip below freezing for the high terrain and northern/western half of the forecast area. Clouds will begin to gradually clear overnight as drier/cooler air infiltrates the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues Thursday and Friday. - Near-seasonable temperatures are expected. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Building high pressure will keep dry conditions in the forecast Thursday and Friday with mostly sunny skies. Deep southern stream troughing will aid development of a coastal low across the Carolinas along the lingering frontal boundary, eventually lifting northwards up the coast. However, moisture associated with that system should stay well to our east. The main impact for our area will be to maintain northwesterly flow across the area, keeping daily temperatures near-average. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - A crossing shortwave returns rain chances early this weekend. - Additional rain chances are expected with low pressure early next week. - Above-average temperatures are expected. ---------------------------------------------------------------- The aforementioned trough will shift east into the weekend as a flattening ridge takes its place across the eastern US. Ensemble probabilities remain high for rainfall to return on Saturday as a shortwave trough crosses the Great Lakes. Uncertainty increases for Easter Sunday, though drier conditions look more favorable than not at the moment. Rain chances then increase again early next week as low pressure lifts out of the central US and into the Great Lakes region. Probabilities for above-normal temperatures through the long term are high. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The forecast period will begin with MVFR/IFR cigs within a warm, moist air mass early this morning. With diurnal heating and a stalled frontal boundary, VFR conditions will likely develop late morning to early afternoon. Winds will shift gradually from south/southwest to west as the cold front slowly advances this afternoon. Cigs have the chance to drop late tonight due to remnant moisture between the surface and 3kft and cold advection. Therefore, MVFR cigs were added near the end of the TAF period to a number of sites. .Outlook... VFR then returns with high confidence for Thursday and Friday under high pressure. The next chance for restrictions may come Saturday with a passing wave.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hefferan/Rackley NEAR TERM...Hefferan/Rackley SHORT TERM...Rackley LONG TERM...Rackley AVIATION...22/Hefferan

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