Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281436 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1036 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THE FOCUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE BUT BEFORE IT DOES...BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASINGLY POTENT LATE MARCH SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE TODAY...FOCUS ON TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS CENTERED ON EXPANSE OF CLOUD CLOVER NORTH AND EAST AND THE GENERAL LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THE WEST. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW COVER THAT SURVIVES MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY DRIVE SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN...THUS SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TAX .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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