Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 060429 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1229 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING FUTURE TRENDS. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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