Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270543 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 143 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WITH UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN FAIRLY NOMINAL...WITH NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING EVEN APPROACHING SEVERE. AS THE NIGHT ENSUES...AND INSTABILITY REMAINED MODEST AT BEST...DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FUELED BY AN INCREASE IN MID- LEVEL RH VALUES AND INCREASED SHEAR. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR LOOKS TO HOLD BACK FOR THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ENCROACHES WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS WILL STAY LARGELY WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN SHRA AND DYING TSRA. THESE WILL PULL ACROSS THE RIDGES TOWARDS SUNRISE. BEHIND THE RAIN...SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH FOG. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK BY MIDDAY. ANY DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE QUITE SPOTTY AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 00Z...WITH MORE RAIN ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST. KEPT VFR FOR NOW BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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