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183
FXUS61 KPBZ 051712
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
112 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact portions of the
region this evening and during the early overnight time period.
A few storms could be severe and produce strong wind, hail, and
heavy rainfall. Wet, warm conditions are anticipated to continue
throughout the week as an elongated trough builds to our west
and deep southwest flow remains.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Strong to severe storms are expected to continue to develop
  this afternoon through the late evening as as a weak cold
  front and shortwave cross into eastern Ohio and western PA.
- Along with severe winds, expected heavy rainfall rates with
  passing storms.
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A weak shortwave trough and cold front are currently tracking
through central Ohio at the moment. A few pulse thunderstorms
have already initiated within Cleveland`s county warning area.
These cells have been considered sub-severe at the moment with
cores not even breaching 20kft. Dry air is noted on the low and
mid-level water vapor over northwestern Ohio, and it may take a
few hours to reach peak destabilization.

With marginal wind shear, high PWATs, and a saturated soil from
convection over the last 24 hours, isolated flooding could
impact the urban areas. A passing storm over the Wayne County
Airport in Ohio did measure 0.50 inches of rain in less than 30
minutes. Any slow moving or backbuilding cells with heavy
rainfall rates may be considered Flood Warning worthy.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Break in the rain possible Monday for a large portion of the
  region.
- Temperatures remain above normal Monday.

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A shortwave trough will dig into portions of the Upper Midwest
Monday morning. This will promote modest height rises over the
region. Weak cold air advection behind today`s cold front will
spread somewhat drier air over the area. This should allow for a
break in the rain and some decrease in cloud cover Monday
afternoon. A weak shortwave moving eastward around the main
trough, could bring the risk for isolated to scattered showers
over locations mainly south of I-70.

Temperatures will cool a bit on Monday, but still remain above
normal.

Lots of uncertainty on Tuesday that will depend on the path of a
weakening shortwave trough and the crossing of a surface warm
front. If the trough digs further south, rainfall coverage
would be more focused on the southern half of the forecast area
as the surface boundary would not make as much headway to the
north. If the wave shifts further north and the warm front does
as well, then the showers would do the same. Further
complicating Tuesday is the speed of the wave. A faster exit
could cause modest 500mb height rises during the afternoon.
Latest blended guidance is leaning toward a more northerly and
slower track of the wave, so will ride with that solution.

Temperatures will warm once again on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances continue through the week but more uncertainty
  lends to lower confidence.
- Temperatures favored to remain above normal.
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An active weather pattern will remain in place for our region,
with decent daily precipitation chances through Friday. Deep-
layer shear will increase as well behind the departing ridge, so
severe weather chances will need to be monitored as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Waves of showers will continue on and off through the morning
as weak shortwaves traverse the upper flow. Movement will be
rather slow and low ceilings will persist through at least
midday as IFR or below conditions. By this afternoon, some cigs
will lift to MVFR and even VFR in some spots.

Height rises and diurnal heating will lift area cigs by 16Z and
will result in a brief lull from convective activity. The
passage of a shortwave and associated weak surface cold front
will then create scattered thunderstorm coverage primarily after
19Z - lingering into the early overnight.

.Outlook...
A moist boundary layer behind the frontal passage and evening
thunderstorms Sunday night likely will lead to widespread
MVFR/IFR restrictions. Some improvements are expected Monday
with influence of high pressure to the north, but shortwave
movement across the TN River Valley may maintain some
restriction/precipitation chances for southern terminals.

The rest of the week will remain active with varying periods of
precipitation and restrictions amid low pressure passage.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22/CL
AVIATION...Rackley/Shallenberger