Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220022 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 822 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of rain and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible with the passage of a cold front overnight. Rain chances will return Tuesday with the approach of mid-atlantic low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Minor updates early this evening to fine tune PoPs and timing of fronts but otherwise the forecast was in good shape. There will be some spotty light showers through the evening but overall a good deal of the forecast area will see a brief break in precipitation this evening as the warm front moves east and out of the area. Showers/isolated storms will resume as activity ahead of the associated cold front begins to cross into eastern Ohio between 9 and 10 this evening. The front will be slow to cross...finally east of the ridges by mid-morning. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Conditions should improve by Monday afternoon under building high pressure and last through at least the start of Tuesday. The models continue to differ on the evolution of low pressure moving across the Tennessee valley on Tuesday. At this time, have opted to bump PoPs up based on some of the newer guidance and ensembles, as now the GFS seems to be the outlier. Departure of this low will be quickly followed by yet another system, again, which is being resolved a little differently between deterministic models. Opted to stay close to a model blend for midweek based on the uncertainty. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal averages through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper trough and embedded shortwaves will start to shift eastward toward the end of the week, but it`s influence should maintain at least low chances for precipitation through the period based on model consensus. Temperatures will generally stay just below seasonal averages through the start of the weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 8pm, bulk of widespread precipitation from this afternoon has moved east into central Pennsylvania. A line of scattered thunderstorms extends from central Ohio into central Kentucky. Have gone with a tempo mention for thunderstorms at Zanesville considering the current scattered coverage of thunderstorms. Have gone with prevailing precipitation at all other terminals considering models suggest that coverage of precipitation will increase as it pushes farther east, and have also gone with low MVFR/IFR ceilings as rain moves in. While thunderstorms are possible at all terminals, did not include in TAFs at this time considering the isolated nature of storms that is expected due to a lack of daytime heating. Wind shift with the cold front itself still remains slightly west of the precipitation line, with winds veering from southerly to westerly. Ceilings should scatter out Monday morning into Monday afternoon from west to east. .Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions and precipitation is expected Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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