Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161042 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 642 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR THIS MORNING. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.. A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO BE DRY BY MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER LAKES BUT WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY TREND IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROF WILL HOLD OUR AREA FIRMLY IN NW FLOW ALOFT KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THURS THE SFC HIGH ERODES AS A RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH SRN EXTENT OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE ERIE. WITH MODELS TRENDING DRIER OVER OUR AREA...HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTH...REINFORCING COOL TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC FILLS IN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONCE AGAIN FRI MORNING WE COULD SEE TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRI...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WAA TO BRING DAYTIME TEMPS BACK UP IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF AVERAGE. HIGHS FRI SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH...UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST. TAX && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. TEMPS WILL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE SAT/SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL COME WITH AN ELONGATED TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH OVERALL TIMING OF THE FRONT AS THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON HOW TO PHASE THE WAVE FROM T.S. ODILE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. TAX && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SITES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE BEFORE IMPROVING LATE THIS MORNING TO VFR BUT STRATOCU CIGS AOB 5KFT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL COVERAGE SCATTERS OUT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IFR RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY SHORTLY BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT PROBABILITY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR TAFS AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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