Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 010512 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 112 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTH TODAY. A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SETTLES IN OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GOOD SHAPE. NEEDED TO MAKE MODIFICATIONS TO POPS AND AN UPDATE OF TEMPERATURES WILL LATEST GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND...AS THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTH AS SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF OVER TENNESSEE. A COOLER AIR MASS AND CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THE HUMIDITY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL ALSO BE SHOVED SOUTHWARD. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUTOFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY REGIONS...WHICH WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES... ESPECIALLY FROM PIT SOUTH INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH CLOUDS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE PATTERN WILL BREAK BRIEFLY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NEARLY COMPLETED THEIR PASSAGE ACROSS LOCAL TERMINALS...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO CLEAR DUJ BY 02Z. BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ALSO SUPPORT LIFR CEILINGS MOVING INTO FKL AND DUJ...BUT AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT LIFR CIGS TO AFFECT ANY OTHER TERMINALS. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL COULD RETURN BY MID WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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