Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261617 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1217 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONT TODAY. DRY WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...NOTED BY A WIND SHIFT AND AGITATION OF THE CU FIELD. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ON RADAR...BUT LITTLE VERTICAL GROWTH HAS BEEN SEEN. THE FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVELY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS NEARING 60 DEGREES. SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE ALREADY SHOWING ABOUT 1000J/KG SB CAPE NOSING INTO EASTERN OHIO. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF REACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. THE SPC MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN MAINTAINED SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND INTO EASTERN OHIO...WHILE A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ADDITIONALLY...THE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE PW VALUES AND STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE FRONT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO TRAINING DOWNPOURS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL RUNNING BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL...BUT IF ENOUGH RAIN FALLS QUICKLY...COULD NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DWINDLE AFTER SUNSET AS THE FRONT TRIES TO CLEAR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK WAVE PASSING ALONG THE FRONT COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS/STORMS ARE PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...COOL ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR- AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. VAST DIFFERENCE IN OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE THURSDAY FORECAST...WITH TODAY`S FRONT RETURNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL RELY MORE ON THE SUPERBLEND ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCORPORATE ENSEMBLE DATA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... BUILDING HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND INCRS PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE UPR OH REGION ONCE AGAIN. ACTUAL TRACK WL REMAIN QUESTIONABLE FOR A WHILE...SO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS EXCLUSIVELY UTILIZED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AROUND KPIT AND MOVE SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. WILL MENTION VCTS FOR KPIT AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND CONVECTION INITIATION IS CURRENTLY NOT TOO HIGH. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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