Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 141809 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 109 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A wintry mix of precipitation is expected across the Upper Ohio Valley Region Today. Warm weather will return next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Second and heavier batch of precipitation is starting to spread over our eastern Ohio and northern WV counties this afternoon. Looking at the latest surface observations, where warm advection is the strongest, temperatures have warmed to above freezing with dewpoints nearly saturated. This encompasses the counties south of PA including the ridges, with the exception being Garrett county. Thus, have opted to cancel the freezing rain advisory for these counties. Further north, dry air remains, with a period of wetbulbing likely to bring above freezing temperatures down a degree or two. Thus, the freezing rain and wintry mix threat remains. The latest hi res guidance does not want to spread precipitation as far north as previous runs but for now, will keep the remaining headlines as is. Overall, precipitation will be light, so little change was made to accumulations through this evening. Once the shortwave shifts east, the remaining precipitation should shift to a rain/snow mix. Some icing may still be possible in a few spots where temperatures hove near freezing, but overall concerns for further impact is low. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Near average temperatures is expected Sunday as surface high pressure settles over the region under zonal flow aloft. A deeper trough is progged to develop over the plains for the start of the new week. Warmer weather under the resulting rising heights over the Upper Ohio Region may be preceded by some additional freezing rain in the predawn of Monday over areas along and south of I 70, but model trends with that scenario have been southward, so have retreated from any "hazard" mention. The moisture supply is progged to increase in the southwest flow on the eastern flank of the aforementioned trough. As ascent increases with the approach of that trough, so will precip chances. POPs were thus escalated to "likely" areawide by Tuesday, although warmth will preclude ice or snow.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warmer weather is then expected to continue dominating until the trough ejects and drags a front toward the area late in the period. Superblend guidance represented this scenario well and was deviated from only in POP timing. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A crossing disturbance will result in scattered precipitation and IFR restrictions through early evening south of I70 and MVFR cloud coverage north as far as I80. Conditions should improve later this evening as the shortwave and precip exit and surface high pressure begins to build. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are possible S of PIT Sunday night with a crossing warm front, and likely areawide Tue/Wed with the approach and passage of a cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening FOR MDZ001. OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon FOR OHZ039>041-048>050. Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon FOR OHZ057>059-068-069. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-073. Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon FOR PAZ031-075. Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening FOR PAZ074- 076. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon FOR WVZ001>003. Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon FOR WVZ004.
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&& $$

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