Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 151724 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 124 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT. WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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PRECIPITATION COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID LEVEL JET TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES OF -12C AT 850HPA SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN...SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE EXCEPT ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. GENERALLY WENT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HI RES MODELS DO SUGGEST A PRONOUNCED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BAND THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT SURE WHETHER THIS WILL MATERIALIZE. OPTED TO BUMP UP POPS NORTH OF I-80 FOR NOW. SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILE TOUCHING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT ADDED ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER AN INCH FOR NOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS INVERSIONS DROP...SUBSIDENCE INCREASE AND WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE COLDEST AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS DAWN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SUNSHINE...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MOST SITES HAVE CHANGED OVER TO SNOW...WITH DUJ/LBE/MGW EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY 16Z. IFR SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SNOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING MVFR STRATOCU UNTIL EARLY WED MORNING. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NXT CHC FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEEKEND LOW PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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