Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231132 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 732 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will quickly exit to the east this morning as a cold front races to the east coast. Drier and cooler air will overspread the region behind the rain. Dry weather is then expected through early next week under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
KEY MESSAGES: - Rain ends this morning. - Cooler and drier air behind the rain. - Below normal temperatures and decreasing cloud cover. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Update... Made a few adjustments to POPs and weather based on the latest surface observations, mesoanalysis, and near term model data. The main area of rain was tapering off as colder air arrives. A brief wintry mix of light snow and freezing rain is possible, though with road temperatures above freezing no impacts are expected. Previous discussion... A cold front will speed southeastward this morning and phase with a developing coastal low. The front will receive a push from a shortwave trough that will swing through western PA this morning. Lingering rain showers, generally east of Pittsburgh, will quickly exit to the east and be out of the area by early afternoon. Colder air behind the front will work to change the backedge of the rain shield to snow or pockets of freezing rain before ending. This would generally be over the I-80 corridor were the cold air will move in before the precipitation ends. Shortwave trough will move into eastern PA this afternoon and cooler and much drier air will overspread the region behind it. Expect to see a decrease in cloud cover from west to east. Temperatures will be a bit tricky. If the area was to remain cloudy all day, steady or even slowly falling temperatures would be possible. However, with increasing late March sunshine anticipated, this should help to bump temperatures up a few degrees this afternoon. We will still end up with below normal high temperatures.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather through Monday under high pressure - Warmer temperatures Sunday and Monday ------------------------------------------------------------------- A broad surface high will move north of the region Sunday as minor 500mb height rises are anticipated. This will keep the area dry and should provide mainly clear skies. The colder air aloft will be shoved northeastward as the upper level heights slowly rise. Sunday will still be a bit cool with temperatures at or just below seasonal averages. Shortwave continues across the Upper Ohio Valley region through Monday. A warming trend is expected on Monday as the ridge axis shifts east of the area, and the flow veers to the south. Highs are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above average by Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday with a cold front - Mainly dry and seasonable to end the week ---------------------------------------------------------------- Model ensembles indicate a trough across the central CONUS will advance slowly eastward toward the Upper Ohio Valley region Tuesday and Wednesday. Increasing rain chances are expected as the trough and its associated surface cold front track east across the area. The front is expected to move east of the area by Thursday, though some uncertainty exists in how far east it will progress before a wave of low pressure tracks north along it. Maintained slight-low chance pops due to the uncertainty. High pressure is expected to build across the region Thursday night and Friday, with dry and seasonable weather expected. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
IFR will continue early this morning as a cold front shifts east of the area. Rain will continue to taper off from W-E with the exiting front, though a brief wintry mix is possible before the precipitation ends. Expect a gradual improvement to MVFR through the afternoon with mixing and dry advection, with VFR returning by late afternoon/evening as high pressure builds in. A clearing trend is expected by tonight under the high. Gusty NNW wind from 20-25kt is expected today with a tight pressure gradient and mixing. Wind should diminish this evening as mixing ends. .Outlook... Height rises and surface high pressure will promote dry weather and VFR conditions until the next low pressure system arrives late Tuesday into Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22 NEAR TERM...WM/22 SHORT TERM...WM/22 LONG TERM...WM AVIATION...WM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.