Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231132
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
732 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will quickly exit to the east this morning as a cold front
races to the east coast. Drier and cooler air will overspread
the region behind the rain. Dry weather is then expected
through early next week under high pressure.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain ends this morning.
- Cooler and drier air behind the rain.
- Below normal temperatures and decreasing cloud cover.
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Update...
Made a few adjustments to POPs and weather based on the latest
surface observations, mesoanalysis, and near term model data.
The main area of rain was tapering off as colder air arrives. A
brief wintry mix of light snow and freezing rain is possible,
though with road temperatures above freezing no impacts are
expected.
Previous discussion...
A cold front will speed southeastward this morning and phase
with a developing coastal low. The front will receive a push
from a shortwave trough that will swing through western PA this
morning. Lingering rain showers, generally east of Pittsburgh,
will quickly exit to the east and be out of the area by early
afternoon. Colder air behind the front will work to change the
backedge of the rain shield to snow or pockets of freezing rain
before ending. This would generally be over the I-80 corridor
were the cold air will move in before the precipitation ends.
Shortwave trough will move into eastern PA this afternoon and
cooler and much drier air will overspread the region behind it.
Expect to see a decrease in cloud cover from west to east.
Temperatures will be a bit tricky. If the area was to remain
cloudy all day, steady or even slowly falling temperatures would
be possible. However, with increasing late March sunshine
anticipated, this should help to bump temperatures up a few
degrees this afternoon. We will still end up with below normal
high temperatures.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather through Monday under high pressure
- Warmer temperatures Sunday and Monday
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A broad surface high will move north of the region Sunday as
minor 500mb height rises are anticipated. This will keep the
area dry and should provide mainly clear skies. The colder air
aloft will be shoved northeastward as the upper level heights
slowly rise. Sunday will still be a bit cool with temperatures
at or just below seasonal averages.
Shortwave continues across the Upper Ohio Valley region through
Monday. A warming trend is expected on Monday as the ridge axis
shifts east of the area, and the flow veers to the south. Highs
are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above average by Monday.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday with a cold front
- Mainly dry and seasonable to end the week
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Model ensembles indicate a trough across the central CONUS will
advance slowly eastward toward the Upper Ohio Valley region
Tuesday and Wednesday. Increasing rain chances are expected as
the trough and its associated surface cold front track east
across the area. The front is expected to move east of the area
by Thursday, though some uncertainty exists in how far east it
will progress before a wave of low pressure tracks north along
it. Maintained slight-low chance pops due to the uncertainty.
High pressure is expected to build across the region Thursday
night and Friday, with dry and seasonable weather expected.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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IFR will continue early this morning as a cold front shifts east
of the area. Rain will continue to taper off from W-E with the
exiting front, though a brief wintry mix is possible before the
precipitation ends.
Expect a gradual improvement to MVFR through the afternoon with
mixing and dry advection, with VFR returning by late
afternoon/evening as high pressure builds in. A clearing trend
is expected by tonight under the high.
Gusty NNW wind from 20-25kt is expected today with a tight
pressure gradient and mixing. Wind should diminish this evening
as mixing ends.
.Outlook...
Height rises and surface high pressure will promote dry weather
and VFR conditions until the next low pressure system arrives
late Tuesday into Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...WM/22
SHORT TERM...WM/22
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...WM