Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 290716
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
315 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 29/1200 UTC THRU SEP 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...MID ATLANTIC INTO THE UPSLOPE AREA OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

THE 00Z GUIDANCE REMAINED IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY FRI.  ONGOING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION AFFORDED BY DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY DAY LIGHT
HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE SOUTHERN MD AND
THE DELMARVA AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES LIFTING EAST OF THE LOW
ENHANCE LIFT ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
THE REGION.  INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT TRAINING CONVECTION...RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
AMOUNTS.  AS THE LOW SETTLES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TODAY...BACKING
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION...FUELING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRI.
ONE POTENTIAL CAVEAT IS A WEAK LOW SHOWN BY THE MODELS DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE...WHICH MAY INTURN DISRUPT THE ONSHORE FLOW.  WHILE THE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES...DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO QPF REMAIN.  WPC QPF
WAS BASED IN LARGE PART ON AN ENSEMBLE OF THE HI-RES WINDOWS AND
THE NAM CONUS NEST.

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

WHILE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS THAN
THOSE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE AMOUNTS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CENTER ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND SOUTHERN MI WHERE ENHANCED FORCING
ALONG THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
INFLOW.

...SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE
OF THE AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE AXIS OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THIS CLOSED
LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  CONFIDENCE LOW WITH
DETAILS---WITH AREAL AVERAGE LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED
WITH ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 519180 521170 520162 516158 512154 505148 501144 493141
      490137 485133 481130 476133 474136 473139 478144 474148
      468144 465137 462131 458128 456125 457120 457115 459111
      460104 457098 451094 440090 434091 429089 425088 422088
      419097 417100 415101 414099 413095 414090 414087 411086
      409084 410079 414076 416069 416064 414061 412059 408058
      402057 398057 396055 389054 386054 386057 384060 381062
      377062 371062 364064 368052 360051 357054 355060 357062
      355066 348066 342067 339069 336069 330071 325073 320074
      307070 303070 297067 284059 273054 264058 260062 259070
      259078 262084 267089 274089 278092 284091 287091 292096
      296096 300096 302099 305105 308109 313113 316112 322111
      328111 333115 332118 330119 326122 323124 321127 317140
      319145 322144 323141 329136 334133 341131 346134 350137
      354137 360139 366137 372139 376136 377131 379129 384129
      386127 391123 394121 398120 404119 408119 414122 419126
      422132 421136 419138 414141 409142 395139 384143 382147
      382148 387150 390152 391156 387161 384163 383165 382170
      384169 391172 394165 398159 401158 404158 408155 411155
      412158 418161 423157 427153 430152 432154 435160 443162
      448165 452166 454164 458158 460156 464157 470155 475160
      474163 472166 468168 464173 462172 460174 455178 453183
      454185 465185 470183 474184 477185 479184 483179 489176
      492178 494181 498188 500191 503192 508192 512192 513190
      518186 519180
 0.01 484030 485024 483020 482017 478016 473020 467023 461027
      455032 455036 457037 459036 464036 470039 474039 477037
      480036 482033 484030
 0.01 454174 454171 453170 451170 451171 450173 450175 451176
      452176 453176 454174 454174
 0.01 447836 447827 445822 442810 439799 439783 437768 434762
      432759 422752 419735 414710 411704 408698 403688 400684
      397679 389671 382664 381662 379664 373667 365672 360680
      354702 352707 348711 344715 341719 334726 329730 325734
      322738 318741 312747 296760 288766 285770 280773 273779
      263785 248796 239801 240806 243809 251805 252812 249818
      236832 234837 236842 243846 242857 241862 244867 250867
      255863 261855 267849 272848 276853 285869 288868 290866
      291862 294850 296841 297835 298832 300830 304831 308828
      318819 320815 324813 334810 345808 356812 354823 354830
      357832 357839 358842 360843 365841 372840 373844 372848
      371852 365860 360867 357872 355878 368887 370894 375897
      387898 401901 408899 413896 420891 423887 427883 431878
      433873 435868 438863 441851 447836
 0.01 383195 381192 378189 375186 370184 364183 359183 359186
      364188 367189 372192 375195 381196 383195
 0.01 345182 345177 344171 343168 341166 336167 330165 327168
      332170 335172 339171 341175 341180 344183 345182
 0.01 231994 237993 241990 247988 252986 256982 258980 258976
      262964 262956 263952 263945 261937 257925 255921 250919
      244921 241923 238929 237936 236952 235957 232962 231963
 0.25 503155 502153 502152 501151 500149 499149 498148 496148
      495148 495151 496153 497156 499158 500158 501157 502156
      503155
 0.25 437840 438834 437829 436819 435811 434802 431784 428775
      424769 419765 414764 408762 406758 407754 407745 406735
      404723 402711 400703 397697 393691 389686 383683 380683
      377685 371688 366694 360706 356712 354719 350733 348741
      345748 339758 330768 325772 318774 309777 303779 291785
      284789 279791 271793 265797 264799 266801 270801 276801
      284798 288795 295793 304792 311794 318794 326795 332796
      334800 337801 343799 350797 356799 369823 378831 383835
      386842 385851 382860 381867 382872 385875 388876 392875
      397873 403874 408869 414866 420868 425864 430857 432853
      434849 437840
 0.25 407110 408107 407105 405106 405107 404109 405110 407110
      407110
 0.25 401072 397071 393073 390073 388075 385081 383079 380074
      377071 375073 374078 374085 374090 372091 367094 362094
      357096 350096 349094 349090 350085 348083 346082 342083
      336081 332080 329081 328086 329091 333096 336100 339104
      342109 344114 345117 349118 353119 355118 355115 355108
      356106 359106 363108 368108 372102 376098 378094 379091
      382091 388091 393089 395085 397078 401072
 0.25 364764 364762 363762 361762 360763 359763 358765 357766
      356767 355768 355770 357770 358770 359770 360768 362767
      363765 364764
 0.25 292077 291075 289074 285072 284072 280071 276070 273069
      269070 268072 269075 272077 275077 278079 281080 285080
      288080 292079 292077
 0.25 282829 282825 279823 274820 267816 261818 257824 256832
      257842 258845 261846 264845 266841 270837 277833 282829
 0.25 231986 237986 240985 244982 246980 248976 252972 253970
      252964 250962 245962 243964 240968 237971 235973 232976
 0.50 435830 434822 433817 429804 428798 425792 424787 424779
      422774 419771 410768 405767 400765 397762 398756 402747
      402742 399737 398731 399724 398716 396708 392698 389693
      385691 368703 362711 359722 358734 357748 364751 368755
      370760 370765 366770 362773 357775 348780 342787 339793
      344794 349793 353794 362797 366801 366808 368814 372817
      379824 387829 391833 393831 396827 400825 404825 410827
      413830 415835 419847 422852 425851 429840 433835 435830
 0.50 392851 392849 392847 392844 391844 390846 390847 389849
      388850 388852 387854 387855 386856 387858 388858 389861
      390858 390857 391856 391854 392852 392851
 0.50 380078 379077 378077 377078 377079 379079 380078
 0.50 239981 240979 239979 237979 235979 235980 237981 238981
      239982 239981
 1.00 431826 429816 428810 426806 420801 411798 410794 410788
      413779 412777 409775 401772 394769 387765 385761 385754
      385749 387744 389736 391726 390714 389709 385707 377710
      373709 369711 365712 364717 363729 363735 365740 370747
      375753 380762 382765 381769 378771 373773 364776 356780
      351782 350785 350788 353789 362790 367790 371792 376797
      379800 380805 382807 381810 382814 389815 407816 414821
      419829 421832 424833 426832 430829 431826
 1.50 425822 425817 425814 423810 421808 419808 415808 414812
      416816 417818 419820 421823 423825 424824 425822
 1.50 406785 407781 406777 402775 393773 387772 380774 370777
      365780 365785 370787 374790 377793 381796 388802 392806
      396808 399808 400806 399800 405792 406785
 1.50 384729 383722 379718 374715 371715 370716 367721 366728
      367735 371740 375744 379748 381750 381741 383735 384729
 2.00 403785 402778 397777 391775 384775 377777 373781 374784
      376786 379791 382795 388798 393798 398796 402791 403785
 2.00 379732 379728 378725 376721 374719 372719 370721 369724
      369727 370732 371734 373736 375737 378738 379734 379732
 3.00 400788 398786 395782 392780 388779 384779 380782 381789
      384793 388794 391795 397794 399790 400788
 4.00 395791 395789 394788 394787 392785 390783 388782 387782
      385783 385784 384786 383787 383788 384790 386791 387792
      389792 391792 393792 395791 395791

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.