Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 161840
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 17/0000 UTC THRU APR 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

PIECES OF ENERGY MOVG ACROSS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE WAA PCPN ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE
PD.  INCRSG SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVRNGT
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A MORE SGFNT SHRTWV TROF APCHS
THE COAST.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING PLACEMENT AND
BASICALLY OPTED FOR A SOLUTION THAT SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BTWN THE
AGGRESSIVE UKMET AND LGTR GFS CONCERNING TOTALS.

...CONCERNING THE AMPLIFYING N CNTRL U.S. SHRTWV TROF...

UPPER TROF CURRENTLY EXITING THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN A VIGOROUS SFC LO MOVG
ACROSS THE N CNTRL U.S. THRU THE PD.  MSTR SUPPLY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND THEREFORE STILL EXPECT MOST PCPN TO
FALL TO THE LEFT OF THE SFC LO TRACK WHERE STG ISENTROPIC LIFTING
PROCESSES WILL TAKE PLACE ASOCTD WITH THE DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT.
THE INTENSITY OF THE VERT LIFT BEING GENERATED AND RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS SUGGESTIVE OF SOME MDT TO HVY PCPN
TOTALS.

THE 12Z MODEL RUNS REMAINED IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
CONTINUED TO LOOK TOO DRY.  GENERALLY USED A MODEL COMPROMISE IN
COMING UP WITH THE MANUAL PCPN FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...A REGION OF INTENSE VERT MOTION ASOCTD WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND ANOTHER PIECE OF SHRTWV
ENERGY ADVANCING SEWD THRU THE S CNTRL ROCKIES LATER THIS EVENING
SHOULD PRODUCE AN INCREASING AREA OF PCPN.  BEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.  MODEL QPFS
PICK UP ON THIS IDEA NICELY WITH THEIR QPFS IN VRY GOOD ACCORD
CONCERNING BOTH PLACEMENT AND TOTALS.  SPLIT MODEL DIFFERENCES
CONCERNING THE LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT OF ACTVTY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS OVRNGT ON WED.

...FL...

LLVL ELYS..FRONTAL BAND AND FVBL DIV FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT
SCTD SHWR ACTVTY ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA...WITH MOST ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNSET TODAY AND THEN AGAIN
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH 18/00Z.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 522267 522263 524258 527248 531239 534229 536223 536218
      537210 537204 535198 533193 532189 533186 535186 537184
      536179 534169 531165 528163 524156 520146 519144 521141
      524140 525137 524130 522120 516103 513096 509086 503068
      499058 496054 493053 489061 486072 477085 476088 473088
      470085 466084 463080 456059 450055 448044 445038 442036
      438035 438040 440045 442051 440055 442059 441063 438065
      436069 440075 445081 444097 467117 469118 471115 474114
      475116 474122 471124 471130 472135 471141 466144 464146
      462163 462166 460167 456169 452176 450181 448185 443190
      442197 439201 434204 428214 426217 423220 415224 411230
      403246 406253 415256 432257 441256 446256 449256 453263
      458269 464275 471280 481285 487292 495298 501300 508297
      513290
 0.01 505885 505872 504859 503844 503837 501832 497827 494825
      490824 483821 478812 472810 465812 459818 455825 451833
      449841 449848 451853 450860 448863 442868 437873 430890
      428900 426909 422931 422937 421940 421945 422950 423956
      424961 428968 435971 441968 452957 463946 469942 476936
      482932 488929 494922 499914 500909 500904 502898 503893
      505885
 0.01 487045 488038 486032 484029 481026 478024 474024 476029
      477034 477039 477042 478047 483048 487048 487045
 0.01 470203 472198 472193 470191 467192 466194 464197 462199
      460201 459204 461206 464207 467207 469205 470203
 0.01 412917 410912 407914 402915 398920 391929 382936 354967
      351970 346969 341967 335966 330968 326971 321975 317979
      313981 310985 309990 312994 318995 322995 326997 331999
      337000 353012 354018 359023 360025 359028 356033 354038
      352044 351047 352053 357057 359058 363059 367060 368062
      372066 377076 381076 383069 389076 390077 392075 393066
      396061 402061 406059 406056 404053 401048 399042 391034
      389030 388022 387017 388009 389002 390992 389983 390974
      392961 396952 398945 402938 403933 407929 412917
 0.01 312913 313911 312908 310905 308897 307888 302882 301879
      298878 295879 295885 291891 291894 292897 293901 295904
      299910 304914 307916 310914 312913
 0.01 297811 291797 288790 288784 285783 280787 277789 274789
      260794 254796 248800 244806 242814 240817 240821 242824
      245826 251826 255825 259825 265828 273829 275827 278828
      282827 284825 288819 291817 295815 297811
 0.25 518270 518263 517256 513242 511236 508231 504225 502217
      500212 497207 492202 487203 477206 467211 447216 442219
      439223 438227 438231 439236 440238 450244 461251 466255
      469259 477269 485279 489283 495288 499291 505292 509290
      513284 518270
 0.25 517201 515187 508177 501168 497164 490161 486158 482156
      479157 475160 471165 469171 468174 472174 477177 481181
      492188 499196 505199 512200 517201
 0.25 493878 492873 491866 487854 481844 477841 473843 470848
      468853 464866 462870 459874 454875 449878 446883 448889
      450894 450903 450909 447914 445919 443925 441931 440939
      441942 444944 449942 457937 465930 472924 479917 485909
      488903 490896 492888 493878
 0.25 466177 468175 467172 465174 464176 464178 466177 466177
 0.25 393052 391048 386046 383043 381038 379033 379026 379019
      378013 381008 379002 376003 376998 377992 377985 375981
      369979 360981 355983 354985 354989 355996 357999 360003
      365005 371005 375005 376011 376015 373019 369022 366026
      362034 361038 361042 363047 365051 369053 375053 381055
      388055 393052
 0.25 286808 286803 284800 282798 277797 270797 261797 254801
      249806 248809 251811 255816 261820 268821 275818 281814
      286809 286808
 0.50 515272 516264 516259 512247 509238 503228 499219 496214
      493211 483208 474210 467214 463216 458217 454217 450219
      448222 451225 455228 454236 457241 461243 469249 476256
      482264 487272 493280 497284 502287 506287 509285 512280
      514274 515272
 0.50 494179 495174 493171 491168 489166 486164 483164 481165
      479170 481173 483176 485177 488179 491180 494179
 0.50 487889 486878 484869 481864 479862 475861 472866 469873
      465878 460881 460884 457891 455910 450923 449928 451930
      457930 467920 471917 475910 478904 482898 487889
 0.50 381051 379047 377044 375039 373037 369034 366036 365041
      367045 369048 372051 376050 379052 381051
 0.50 282806 280803 276801 272799 268799 263800 259803 258805
      255810 257813 260815 266815 271814 275813 279811 282807
      282806
 1.00 512266 512259 510253 507248 505241 495220 490216 487215
      482213 477215 478218 480219 484223 490225 493231 498242
      501247 504254 503260 500257 493246 490242 487241 481243
      479238 475234 473234 473239 480249 486258 492269 498278
      503281 507279 507269 512266
 1.50 503275 502270 500266 497262 495257 493253 491250 489249
      488252 489257 491261 493266 496270 498274 502276 503275

$$





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