Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 260655
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 26/1200 UTC THRU MAY 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS---MS VALLEY---TN VALLEY
AND OH VALLEY

NEGATIVELY TILTED HEIGHT FALLS IN SEVERAL STREAMS---INITIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS---WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THIS PERIOD
FROM THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY--AND THEN FARTHER
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OH VALLEY-TN VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ACTIVE CONVECTION LIKELY AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS IN A BROAD
AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST---ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF
THE EVOLUTION WILL BE DECREASING WITH FORECAST HOURS.   MOST
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD---A CONTINUATION OF
THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON---WITH THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT.  THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF TIMING
ISSUES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS OF THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
 THE 1200 UTC HI RES ARW AND NMM BOTH SLOWED CONSIDERABLY FROM
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE--ALTHOUGH THEY REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE.  THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA WAS FAVORED.   TO THE
NORTH OF THIS---ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO BREAK OUT TUESDAY
FROM THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY---OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AS BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS.  LOW CONFIDENCE WITH DETAILS
HERE---WITH THE HI RES ARW FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY--WITH AREAL
AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS.

EASTERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST/UPPER TN VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS

AHEAD OF THE HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY---A LEAD AREA
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN A MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS FROM
THE EASTERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST--NORTHEASTWARD INTO UPPER TN
VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE AREA OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THERE IS THE USUAL CONFIDENCE WITH
DETAILS ACROSS THESE AREAS--BUT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS.

FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES---MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DAY 1 FROM IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE SUPERIOR---EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND INTO
SOUTHERN QB.  MOIST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERRUNNING
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL PUSH A BROAD REGION OF OVERRUNNING
RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO---SOUTHERN QB AND INTO FAR NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE U.S. WILL BE FROM FAR
NORTHERN NH INTO NORTHERN MAINE WHERE .25-.50"+ AREAL AVERAGE
AMOUNTS DEPICTED.

GREAT BASIN---NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES

THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE VERY SLOW
MOVING CLOSED LOW MOVING FROM IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TO
EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE INTO NORTHERN IDAHO DAY 1. CYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION.
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS DAY
1--WITH AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE
.10-.25"+ RANGE POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC/HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 543193 540186 537181 534177 531171 530163 528157 524153
      520149 494113 491107 489101 489097 492090 493083 491077
      487066 484062 481059 472063 468065 462064 460063 460060
      462057 460050 456046 451046 449052 450060 454064 458063
      455068 449066 443064 437064 432060 434057 436055 445052
      446047 446041 446031 444025 441025 438030 437039 440044
      441050 436047 431044 424043 412044 409047 404048 392045
      390041 387040 385038 381033 384027 388026 391023 390018
      383017 378015 374015 372017 372023 373028 375030 374034
      373039 374042 371043 367045 363047 366052 369056 369065
      372077 376089 378093 380095 380099 376113 375118 377123
      381127 381135 379138 378142 377150 378157 378165 379167
      382168 386167 391170 396169 400172 404172 409169 413172
      417176 424177 429173 432169 428158 426153 427144 429139
      431135 432138 434144 435152 438165 440173 443177 460185
      463183 465184 470188 475189 477192 476196 468201 465205
      464208 465210 468213 473214 483215 487216 489219 492225
      498235 504247 507253 509257 517261 520262 521259 519254
      518251 519247 518241 513230 511223 511215 515208 520207
      523206 528202 539207
 0.01 521694 518679 514669 510659 504649 499642 492635 479627
      472624 464626 455632 450638 442645 438648 436652 435658
      435665 438670 440673 442674 446674 449677 455684 455690
      454695 453702 450706 442713 439716 440721 443720 444725
      439730 448729 454723 457720 460718 463716 466715 470716
      476723 478729 479737 480743 480747 478749 471753 463762
      459760 456762 452766 447767 442765 439762 437757 435768
      432780 432786 435790 440791 441797 438801 433804 429802
      427800 428797 428791 428788 426788 423789 422785 425775
      428767 427764 428760 430755 429750 425746 421746 419742
      416738 411737 408732 404730 400733 396742 388747 386751
      386757 386762 388765 386773 377791 375795 371799 364803
      356808 352809 348810 341811 339812 337815 336819 333823
      321824 311824 273818 264817 261821 260826 264831 267833
      270835 275836 284837 287839 286844 283845 281843 276843
      272845 270847 272849 272853 272860 270864 265866 262868
      260873 261878 262883 258882 251882 246884 245886 247891
      251897 256906 257911 257915 257921 259925 265933 270941
      271950 271955 271961 268969 266974 263978 261981 257984
      250988 246992 246995 247000 250004 256008 264012 267011
      268008 269002 271991 275991 276994 277000 278003 276005
      273008 272012 273017 276020 280022 286022 300019 307010
      308002 306998 302996 300993 298982 295973 294970 295967
      298965 301961 306960 312968 314971 315978 315985 316988
      322995 330999 337996 345995 347998 350998 355994 358994
      359998 359006 360012 363011 365006 367000 368994 368987
      373980 378971 383964 386966 385970 384972 389972 391968
      395956 396953 398952 398955 397960 400966 406972 409974
      414973 417972 419971 420968 423962 425959 431951 445940
      451934 454930 456925 461918 467909 478892 487874 494856
      500837 507818
 0.01 507818 510810 513801 516794 519785 521776 523768 524763
      523757 521747 519743 519737 520727 521718 522707 521694
 0.01 516190 516187 516185 516183 515182 514180 513181 512184
      512186 512189 512191 513193 514192 515191 516190
 0.01 460748 460746 460743 458743 456743 456744 455746 455747
      455749 455752 455754 456755 457754 458754 459751 460748
      460748
 0.01 451738 451736 450735 448735 447736 446737 445739 446739
      447741 449741 451739 451738
 0.01 424803 423799 423794 421792 420794 418797 417799 415802
      415804 412806 410808 410811 414811 415809 419808 420806
      424803
 0.01 414024 415019 414017 413014 411012 408012 406012 404014
      404016 405021 407024 409024 411026 412026 414024
 0.01 376913 364910 355905 346911 337918 330926 325930 324932
      325934 334941 339944 345947 351945 355942 360938 363934
      370924 376913
 0.01 336784 331782 323781 316780 308779 301778 295777 292780
      292783 298786 306789 313790 320789 329788 334787 336784
      336784
 0.25 511715 510708 509703 506700 503698 500700 499705 498717
      498739 498752 497763 494769 489774 485780 481787 479791
      479796 477807 475813 473816 469817 467814 465802 463797
      461795 457796 455800 456809 458816 455820 452822 439830
      426836 423839 422843 423847 426849 433852 442854 447855
      450857 451861 450867 447875 443883 437887 433889 430886
      429881 431877 434870 433865 431861 426855 420850 412849
      399844 396842 395838 392836 388838 381843 376847 372850
      367850 363849 360847 361842 362838 366830 370824 374819
      377816 381816 379824 381828 385827 391821 396816 398812
      398808 397804 393802 387805 385802 382802 377805 348821
      342827 336831 330835 329837 326835 318834 313830 303830
      294829 281826 274824 272825 274828 290832 298834 306835
      308837 309842 302844 299852 296853 292852 289854 289858
      290865 287868 278869 273872 268877 267882 265886 252889
      256895 261901 263909 263916 264921 266924 268922 269917
      271915 272917 274922 277929 281931 284931 289930 294930
      296933 297937 297943 299946 303946 305944 309938 312933
      314924 316913 316908 319905 326901 333900 341896 343895
      346896 350897 354897 362894 369891 376887 383884 385887
      386893 388895 392899 396900 402903 407908 406913 404917
      401926 402929 405932 412936 414938 417938 425935 432931
      437927 451919 456915 460910 465903 469896 476880 483864
      487855 490846 491837 494828 501812 505792 507783 509770
      512750 512742 511734 511722 511715
 0.25 511157 509150 506145 502142 498136 493125 491117 488112
      486113 484118 482119 479119 477119 475124 477132 480137
      484141 491150 493158 493166 496171 501171 504168 506166
      507161 511157
 0.25 499209 500206 500204 499201 498201 497199 496199 494199
      492200 491201 490202 490203 490206 491209 493210 494210
      495210 496210 498209 499209
 0.25 466644 466639 464636 461636 458638 456640 453643 452646
      451649 451652 451657 454658 456658 457656 458653 460651
      463648 464647 466644
 0.25 471096 471093 471092 470090 469090 467089 466090 466092
      466095 467097 467098 468099 470098 470097 471096
 0.25 462136 462134 462129 461124 460123 456123 456125 453127
      451129 452134 453135 457137 459138 460138 462136
 0.25 459143 458140 458139 457140 456140 455142 456143 458144
      459143
 0.25 453115 453107 451103 448099 445098 440098 437100 430105
      423110 415112 412109 411103 410098 408098 403107 400110
      399115 402124 404128 407131 413126 415127 414130 412132
      410138 410145 413149 415148 423129 430123 433121 437120
      441120 446121 447123 449121 452117 453115
 0.25 379947 379940 374938 371940 368944 364947 360949 355960
      351962 346960 343959 341962 341966 343969 348976 353979
      359980 362980 365979 368974 370969 373965 375960 377954
      379947
 0.25 346978 346977 346976 344974 343974 341974 339976 338978
      337979 337980 336982 337984 339986 341986 342984 343984
      344982 345980 346978 346978
 0.25 332969 332967 332965 331965 330964 328964 328965 328966
      328967 329969 330970 332971 332969
 0.25 295006 295000 294991 293985 291979 286976 284981 283989
      284995 284003 285012 287013 291012 294008 295006
 0.25 264000 264997 263994 262992 259990 257989 254990 252992
      253995 254998 256000 258002 260003 263002 264000
 0.50 508721 508719 508718 506717 504718 504720 503723 503724
      503725 503728 503731 504733 504735 505736 506736 507735
      507732 508729 508727 508724 508723 508721
 0.50 501157 501152 499146 497143 494138 491135 488132 486134
      488139 491142 493147 494151 496156 498160 501157
 0.50 491828 491822 489819 487817 484817 479822 477827 473834
      468837 466839 464841 462840 459837 453835 447837 442842
      442847 448849 456849 457852 457857 457864 456874 453880
      446889 437899 433904 431910 429917 433921 439921 445918
      450915 454911 462902 469891 474877 485853 487846 489839
      491828
 0.50 416879 417872 415870 411873 407875 404878 402880 399884
      397888 397891 399892 401892 406890 409888 413885 416882
      416879
 0.50 393810 392809 391810 390810 389812 388813 388814 387815
      386817 386818 388818 388817 389816 390815 391814 392812
      393811 393810
 0.50 390851 389849 388847 385847 383848 381850 378853 376855
      374857 373860 375862 378862 380861 383860 387859 389857
      390854 390851
 0.50 377875 375872 371873 366876 363878 359880 356883 354886
      353888 356888 361888 365887 368885 372882 375879 377875
 0.50 371860 369859 368860 369861 371860 371860
 0.50 363825 362820 356820 348825 342831 339835 339841 321846
      318849 315849 311847 308846 306848 304859 298866 294869
      289871 281873 275875 272878 268887 265890 260890 258891
      258893 261897 264900 265906 266912 268908 271904 273902
      275906 276917 277923 280927 285927 289926 292924 295928
      298928 300924 299917 296915 296912 299909 306903 311896
      326883 332869 337866 335863 328859 328857 330852 331850
      333850 338850 343852 344858 347862 352862 353859 351853
      351850 352845 355839 359834 363825
 0.50 364972 365969 365967 365965 364963 364962 364961 363958
      363957 361956 360958 360961 360963 359965 359967 358969
      358972 358974 359974 361976 362975 363974 364972 364972
 0.50 359868 359865 358865 357866 356868 355868 353870 352872
      351873 352875 354874 355872 356872 357871 358870 359868
      359868
 0.50 350877 348875 347877 346877 347878 348878 350877
 0.50 303935 304933 303931 303928 303931 302933 302935 303935
      303935
 0.50 292997 291993 291991 291987 291983 289981 287981 286985
      286989 286993 287997 288999 289002 291000 292997
 1.00 486831 484831 482834 478842 471855 469865 465871 461878
      457884 448896 445904 447908 450909 459898 463892 466885
      472868 480857 483848 485839 486831
 1.00 355830 355828 354827 353828 352828 351829 349830 349831
      348833 348835 350837 351836 352835 353833 354833 355831
      355830
 1.00 310884 309880 307879 303880 297878 296874 292878 287883
      283887 282889 285891 289891 294893 297894 300894 305890
      309886 310884
 1.50 457893 456893 455893 454894 453896 451899 453900 455899
      455898 456896 456895 457893

$$




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