Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 290643
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
143 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 29/1200 UTC THRU JAN 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHWEST

FAIRLY WELL DEFINED HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA DAY 1 WILL BE TAPING A BROAD REGION OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES---2 TO 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN--CURRENTLY OFF
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND PUSHING THESE ANOMALOUS PW VALUES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE COMBINATION OF DIFFLUENT
UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THIS INCREASING PW AXIS WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DAY 1
ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF AZ---NM AND INTO FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST TX.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS LIKELY ACROSS THESE
AREAS---WITH ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN
REGIONS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM.

GREAT LAKES---UPPER OH VALLEY---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC---NY STATE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND

SEVERAL AREAS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
MEAN UPPER TROF CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY
DAY 1.  THE LEAD AREAS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MORE SOUTHERN
STREAM OF TWO WILL HELP PUSH WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FAIRLY
QUICKLY EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY
REGION---INTO LARGE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY.  THE QUICK
MOVEMENT WILL KEEP PRECIP TOTALS ON THE MODERATE SIDE---WITH AREAL
AVERAGE .10-.25"+ AMOUNTS DEPICTED AS PER MODEL CONSENSUS--WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TOTALS FROM THE EASTERN
LAKES---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO NORTHERN NY STATE.  A MORE
NORTHERN STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MEAN TROF POSITION THURSDAY---HELPING TO SHARPEN THIS
TROF TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OH VALLEY.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE AMPLIFYING
TROF.  THIS AMPLIFYING TROF WILL HAVE MORE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL
IMPACTS DAY 2 OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND WITH RESPECT TO
ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOWS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 544782 543769 541762 537749 531734 529729 529724 528718
      523709 517703 515695 511691 504683 492681 488680 482682
      475682 467684 463685 461683 454684 444683 432687 412696
      406700 400702 391708 364721 355726 350728 347732 333748
      329753 327759 324770 320784 315796 307819 305829 306844
      305847 306850 309854 315854 320853 326839 330826 334817
      337806 340796 342790 344783 352760 359746 366737 372734
      378735 381736 382740 380746 378752 378758 381762 385763
      387765 386769 384774 382780 379784 376791 372797 363805
      357814 354819 351824 350829 351837 355848 355854 358859
      363861 369860 378859 383857 388852 390850 394849 405865
      414870 419872 423872 424870 426868 431867 436869 442868
      446866 454866 457867 459871 460875 461881 461891 461898
      463904 467905 470901 473895 475890 476881 478875 479866
      480864 483862 487861 493858 506852 511850 516845 519842
      522837 528825 531814 533800 537795 542791 544782
 0.01 381122 383108 381103 378098 375090 377082 375071 371068
      369063 368057 365055 360050 354044 348037 336027 327023
      323022 319026 314032 311039 305045 298050 286062 280065
      274073 271082 269091 267095 268097 273106 280111 285116
      291123 295126 300127 304126 309127 314133 319138 327146
      333149 343152 348152 352151 360145 365139 371133 381122
 0.01 330170 327165 322160 319157 315157 312154 308153 304153
      302154 305161 303165 302169 304172 307173 314178 321180
      323178 325174 330170
 0.25 518753 518743 516738 507733 505725 503721 499720 497720
      496717 494712 489712 476715 470717 466719 459725 454734
      453741 448744 446744 445742 442737 440735 435735 430738
      427743 427749 429756 430764 430769 427774 423777 419778
      415778 409779 403782 397787 389792 381799 378804 376809
      377814 380818 383820 388822 398822 404822 410822 425813
      431811 435811 441810 444812 444815 443822 445829 448830
      453830 459827 463825 472818 488809 495802 501793 506785
      512778 516764 518753
 0.25 358118 358111 357105 352097 348086 345076 343070 340065
      336058 331055 329055 327058 325063 322067 313072 305076
      298082 295086 293092 292097 293103 297105 302108 305111
      312113 322113 328113 333116 339124 341128 345133 349132
      353128 356122 358118
 0.50 485773 485771 483769 480767 477767 476768 474770 474775
      474780 475783 479783 482781 484780 485776 485773
 0.50 455798 455796 455793 454791 452791 450790 449791 448792
      448795 449797 451798 453799 455799 455798
 0.50 410798 410796 409796 407797 407799 408799 409799 410798
 0.50 343111 344103 343098 340087 338081 334077 329076 327080
      321082 316082 310082 306085 303088 302093 301096 301100
      304104 310105 314105 325103 330105 334108 338111 341112
      343111

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.