Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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544
FXUS04 KWBC 300701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 30/1200 UTC THRU JUL 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC...

TAKING A BIG PICTURE VIEW OF THE U.S...THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL
COVERAGE OF MODERATE AND LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MD/VA AND WESTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. A DEPARTING WAVE OFF THE
EAST COAST HAD BRIEFLY PRODUCED A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND A
SURFACE FRONTAL INTRUSION DOWN THROUGH VA/NC...BUT VERY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT SURFACE WILL
QUICKLY RETURN AHEAD OF A SEMI-PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MODEL QPFS ARE RELATIVELY HEAVY AND
ARE SPATIALLY SIMILAR...BUT DO VARY WITH RESPECT TO THE
DETAILS...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE EAST/NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF
HEAVY RAIN OUT OF CENTRAL PA...AND THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER RAIN
FARTHER SOUTH IN VA/MD/NC. THE FORCING MECHANISMS WOULD SEEM TO
FAVOR LOCAL MAXIMA IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA WHERE JET-FORCED ASCENT
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND
CAPE...AND ALSO ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN VA
/ NORTHERN NC. CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT AS GREAT OVER
NORTHERN VA AND ADJACENT DC/MD GIVEN NEUTRAL HEIGHT CHANGE...BUT
HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED INITIATION IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THAT ACTIVITY THEN RELATIVELY LIKELY TO MAKE
SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS GIVEN INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. UP
ACROSS PA...WE TENDED TO HOLD BACK ON THE EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF HEAVIER RAIN INTO NEW YORK...AS CONVECTION MAY HAVE
A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN UPON MOVING OFF THE CAPE GRADIENT...AND THEN
REFORMING BACK TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP COULD YIELD A MORE FOCUSED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN / CENTRAL PA AS OUTFLOWS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AGAINST INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW SPEEDS. THE
MODEL QPF SIGNAL IS ALSO INCREASING BACK WESTWARD ALONG WHAT COULD
BE CONSIDERED A WEAK OCCLUSION ACROSS NORTHWEST PA INTO NORTHERN
OH AND LOWER MI.


...PLAINS / LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / TENNESSEE VALLEY...

A WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAD PASSED THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...PROVIDING A PUSH ON THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE AND LIMITING ENHANCED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW TO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WERE
SMALL SCALE AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED AS A RESULT. EXPECT A SMATTERING
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NORTH DAKOTA...AND OCCASIONAL STRONGER CELLS ALONG
OUTFLOWS IN THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING COLORADO DOWN TO TX/OK...BUT
IT APPEARS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR LARGER SCALE AND MORE ROBUST
ACTIVITY WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROVIDES AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET TO STRENGTHEN AND SET UP
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. MOST GUIDANCE PRODUCES A SWATH OF SOMEWHAT
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND PERHAPS EXTENDING
INTO ADJACENT NE/MO/OK.

DOWNSTREAM OF THE PLAINS EVIRONMENT...THE PRECIPITATION
DISTRIBUTION IS SOMEWHAT MORE CHAOTIC...BUT MODELS GENERALLY
INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL FROM THE ARKLATEX
INTO WESTERN TN/MS...AIDED AT TIMES BY OUTFLOWS ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST...AND THEN ALSO IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS DOWNSTREAM OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT AREAS TO THE
EAST.


...SOUTHWEST

THE MONSOON HAD SLOWLY STRENGTHENED IN RECENT DAYS...AND WAS MORE
PRODUCTIVE ACROSS ARIZONA ON FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL MESONET STATIONS
REPORTING MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN. ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WESTERN NM INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN/WESTERN ARIZONA FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN FOR
TIMING. A VORITICY MAXIMUM IS ALSO FORECAST TO PASS ALONG THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE AND MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH INTO
SOUTHWEST COLORADO.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 538189 538161 539152 539145 537131 534122 530113 523104
      517099 510093 509092 506097 504102 503109 499100 498087
      493080 486073 482072 480074 480082 482086 486093 488099
      488102 489107 490114 493118 496121 498126 498131 494132
      492137 496146 496153 496160 496164 498170 499183 499190
      499198 499204 499212 497227 498232 500236 507243 513251
      515248 514242 514229 512217 511211 511203 511196 513191
      516195 520198 525206 528208 530207 533202 534197 536194
      538189
 0.01 509973 508966 506961 504957 500954 499947 497944 491944
      489947 485955 480962 474968 466964 462962 457961 447960
      442959 436958 429959 424960 415964 410965 408961 403954
      400947 394939 391936 387932 383930 380927 377923 376919
      374915 376911 380905 385897 388893 392890 397883 397876
      398869 402871 403873 403883 404898 404906 405913 408922
      414927 419935 425940 429944 434946 437947 443948 453948
      467938 470936 472932 471930 467929 455929 448925 441922
      434918 431915 429909 428903 428894 428889 429886 431881
      437876 441874 442869 441864 442857 443851 446849 453843
      454838 453834 452829 450826 447821 445816 443803 444793
      447779 450768 451757 452733 450717 448702 447695 444692
      441687 437688 431693 423699 420702 416705 411712 401726
      396731 388737 384734 382731 379727 373728 369731 365735
      359742 352750 351752 350749 349742 349738 347733 346731
      343732 340735 338747 338757 340769 337777 327793 323799
      318806 312811 307813 301812 295807 286803 276801 270801
      264800 256797 245800 239805 238809 237815 239821 242821
      245821 248820 252819 254824 258831 264837 272841 279841
      285842 290846 292850 295858 298862 298867 295876 290883
      286892 285897 285905 286911 288916 290925 291930 291937
      287944 278958 274964 269971 268974 266974 261973 257974
      258980 260984 264987 262996 264001 269999 273001 276005
      279004 280002 279989 282973 287974 290972 296971 299969
      303967 305965 309955 313945 318939 320940 320946 321950
      325954 330960 335969 346987 349992 348999 345011 346014
      348019 350024 349029 344035 342039 342044 340050 337053
      325052 322052 320054 319059 320063 325064 332064 335065
      336068 335072 332072 327072 322081 318083 315083 313082
      306078 300073 295067 294060 292058
 0.01 292058 264037 260039 257042 254045 252050 242065 242069
      245072 251079 263090 271095 280100 284102 287103 287106
      290114 293124 297127 302128 307128 311127 316129 319132
      327136 334137 337138 339140 341144 341149 340161 336161
      332159 328156 323155 316158 318163 323164 329165 333167
      344172 349172 352170 356167 360165 368168 374168 377168
      395166 403163 412158 420154 424148 427143 427137 425132
      421129 417134 410138 403136 401133 403131 412127 414125
      417121 419116 422114 427112 428111 428106 427103 424100
      417094 414091 412087 411084 408084 407087 404093 401096
      399098 397096 396089 395085 393082 390078 388073 387068
      387061 392055 396045 398040 400032 398024 400020 406020
      411027 421043 425051 433055 437057 442058 447058 450055
      453049 453042 453037 452032 449026 448020 448017 450016
      456016 462016 465014 472011 479006 487000 492995 496992
      499988 505980 509973
 0.01 452115 453107 453100 451097 448094 443093 438093 438095
      439100 442103 445105 445109 447114 448116 452115 452115
 0.01 398180 398176 396175 392176 388182 383182 378180 372179
      370181 370183 377186 384187 391188 395185 398180
 0.01 385015 385013 385011 383012 382013 381014 379015 377016
      377017 377019 379021 379022 381023 382023 383022 384020
      384017 385015
 0.01 374107 374102 374098 373095 371093 369095 367099 365101
      363103 361105 362109 364112 365113 367113 371112 373109
      374107
 0.01 352808 349805 344807 342808 339803 336804 333807 333811
      332815 329818 327822 327829 330833 330839 332843 336847
      339847 347844 348838 348833 349822 349816 351811 352808
 0.01 316050 315045 311043 309040 306036 302036 302040 298044
      298048 302049 307049 311051 314054 316050 316050
 0.01 298029 295024 292022 289021 281021 277020 274017 270014
      264011 262004 258000 252997 246994 242995 240997 243002
      243010 249013 259021 264024 270027 273032 275034 279035
      285034 292035 298029
 0.25 533181 530162 532152 531148 529144 525137 523141 523145
      522148 518147 515144 514139 512131 511127 511121 514113
      513108 510111 509115 507128 504137 505148 514160 520175
      522180 524183 528185 531184 533181
 0.25 510233 510231 510228 509225 509224 508223 506223 506224
      506225 506226 507229 507230 508232 508233 510234 510233
 0.25 442754 442745 440739 438734 434731 429733 424733 416727
      413727 409731 403741 396744 388751 385753 383752 379749
      374740 371739 369741 365746 362751 358754 355757 351761
      348764 345769 342781 343788 345794 354799 362803 367806
      373807 381801 392802 393808 389812 384813 381818 379823
      377830 382833 388832 394824 397824 399829 402834 404841
      408854 410868 411875 412880 414882 417881 420877 426867
      432859 435844 437832 436823 435817 433801 434787 437774
      440764 442754
 0.25 440043 441041 440039 438037 436035 434033 431031 428031
      427034 427039 429042 431042 434042 436042 439043 440043
 0.25 428016 428011 426008 425006 424002 422000 420999 419999
      418003 417008 416010 417013 418016 420018 421021 425021
      427018 428016
 0.25 405998 406994 405990 404984 400973 394964 388956 380952
      375951 372954 370954 369952 367946 364933 359923 352923
      347920 345919 344916 346904 349894 351890 354889 356886
      361878 362871 360865 359861 357860 353864 348870 345875
      341878 336878 332882 330887 329899 330906 331911 332924
      331932 329937 328941 331945 336947 340950 343954 345959
      349969 354978 360987 366994 370998 373999 374995 374992
      372986 367977 364972 364967 369968 373972 379979 385986
      392994 398998 401000 403999 405998
 0.25 380771 380770 379769 378767 376767 374766 374767 374769
      375771 377772 378773 378774 379773 380771 380771
 0.25 381081 382078 382076 381074 381073 381072 380069 378067
      377066 375066 374066 374068 373071 373073 374075 374076
      374078 375080 377082 378083 379083 380083 381082 381081
 0.25 383841 383838 383836 382835 380836 379839 377841 377843
      377844 379844 381843 382842 383841
 0.25 382866 382857 379855 374858 371864 369869 369873 368877
      365883 363887 363890 365887 369889 372887 376882 378877
      380870 382866
 0.25 370140 370138 370136 370133 369132 367131 365131 364132
      363133 362134 362136 363137 365138 366139 368139 370140
      370140
 0.25 370041 370039 370037 369035 368036 367036 366037 364038
      364040 364041 365042 367043 369042 370041
 0.25 358127 358122 357119 353113 349109 347110 344108 345106
      348107 349101 348099 352095 355093 355089 349087 346088
      342087 338083 332080 329082 330085 333092 333100 333105
      332107 333110 337110 338113 340120 341127 343130 347130
      354129 358127
 0.25 362069 362065 359062 360058 361052 362048 360044 357047
      356051 353055 355060 359062 358066 358068 362070 362069
 0.25 333110 328107 327103 319101 306085 297079 293075 287074
      280072 278068 273065 274061 274055 273052 271050 266050
      263055 258057 256062 254068 256073 262080 270087 279093
      284095 289098 292103 293108 296113 300116 309117 315120
      318122 321122 325120 327116 330112 333110
 0.25 302823 299819 294818 282819 278816 273816 265809 256806
      251808 249811 257817 260820 265823 268825 272828 275832
      280833 291830 297828 301825 302823
 0.25 301918 301914 302909 302905 301901 300897 298896 297898
      295901 295903 295908 295910 297914 298916 300918 301918
 0.25 298954 298952 298949 297948 297949 296952 295954 296956
      297954 298954
 0.25 256006 256004 255003 254004 253006 254007 256007 256006
 0.25 383115 382114 381115 381116 383115
 0.50 436763 436758 434755 430752 426748 420746 416746 414744
      412739 410745 406746 402746 398747 394752 391758 388762
      382774 378780 376783 377787 381792 385795 397799 401803
      402807 403811 403821 406828 409843 411854 413860 416866
      419865 421863 425859 428852 430846 431837 431832 429826
      428819 426809 426805 427801 429794 431785 434774 436763
 0.50 400986 399979 396975 393969 389965 385961 382959 379959
      376961 376965 379970 384974 387978 391982 394987 398988
      400986
 0.50 378076 378073 376073 377076 377078 378076
 0.50 371774 368764 366760 364758 360758 356761 351767 349771
      348776 346780 347787 353793 355796 359797 362794 362791
      359781 361777 365778 370778 371774
 0.50 354122 353119 352118 351119 351121 352122 354122 354122
 0.50 363943 361936 360934 357933 356936 356941 352940 348944
      347947 347952 349958 352960 354953 356947 357944 359945
      361945 363943
 0.50 345101 346098 346096 345095 344095 342095 340095 339095
      339098 339100 339102 339104 339105 339104 341103 343103
      343102 345101 345101
 0.50 322117 324113 323109 320107 317107 314103 311097 303089
      296081 291078 285080 279082 279086 282091 287093 292098
      295103 297108 301112 305111 312113 316116 320118 322117
 0.50 297824 295822 292821 290820 288820 285823 283823 280825
      278827 278829 280830 284829 285828 289827 293826 294826
      297824
 0.50 276820 274818 270816 266813 264811 260808 254809 255812
      259815 261817 265820 268822 272822 276820 276820
 0.50 270079 270077 269075 268074 267073 266072 265072 264070
      263070 262069 260070 259072 260072 260074 261075 262076
      263077 264078 265079 266079 268079 270079
 0.50 341934 340934 341935 341934
 1.00 319112 318112 318113 319112
 1.00 427772 426767 422767 417759 410758 405751 400753 397755
      396760 396765 390769 386778 385782 385787 387790 391790
      399791 405797 408804 407815 407819 410821 411824 412819
      414811 414804 415800 415787 416783 418778 419775 422774
      427772
 1.00 425846 425841 424838 423834 421833 417833 415833 413830
      413833 414837 414841 416844 416846 418851 419853 422853
      423851 424848 425846
 1.00 365766 365764 363763 362765 363765 365766 365767 365766
 1.00 306104 305102 303101 302097 301095 300093 299089 297087
      295088 295090 296093 298096 299099 299102 301104 303106
      306106 306104
 1.50 414772 413766 410764 405764 402760 400758 398761 401764
      401767 401774 404778 408779 410779 413776 414772

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