Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 171850
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 18/0000 UTC THRU OCT 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON---ADDITIONAL STRONG UPSTREAM NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT
FALLS WILL AMPLIFY AS THEY PUSH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL IN AN AXIS OF PW VALUES 2.0-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHERN OREGON
COAST/WASHINGTON COASTAL AREA---INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON
CASCADES---THROUGH THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.  HEAVY RAINS LIKELY
THROUGH THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON COASTAL
RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE--WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT OF PRECIP SOUTHWARD
INTO FAR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST
RANGE.   MAX TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE OLYMPIC RANGE WITH AMOUNTS IN
THE 3-6"+ RANGE...1-2+ INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES---WITH LIGHTER TOTALS BETWEEN THE COASTAL MAX AND THE
CASCADES MAX.  GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS EXPECTED FARTHER
INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION FROM
EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE INTO NORTHERN ID AND NW MT.

FLORIDA

A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY IN AN EAST TO
WEST DIRECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DAY 1.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL POST FRONTAL FLOW IN THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED SHOWERY
PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS.  THE THREAT CONTINUES FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA WHERE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RAIN BANDS MAY SET UP.   UVVS
IN THIS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW REGION WILL BE
ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE 0000-1200 UTC TIME FRAME...BY
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS FLORIDA.  THERE HAS
BEEN RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE HI RES GUIDANCE WITH THE
DETAILS OF WHERE THESE RAIN BANDS MAY SET UP.  CONSENSUS FROM THE
HI RES MEANS IS FOR MAX PRECIP FROM IN THE VICINITY OF DAB---SOUTH
TO MLB---WITH LIGHTER TOTALS SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.  NO
CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL REGIONS.  SHORT TERM RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2"+ PER HOUR POSSIBLE WHERE THESE BANDS SET
UP---LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED
AREAS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 478336 483332 488327 498315 502309 506301 512288 516281
      519270 521261 523256 523248 520233 514219 528234 534219
      540203 541190 539180 530169 513149 503137 496135 492134
      488131 483128 478126 473125 471127 471132 472136 472138
      475139 480138 483141 486142 487146 486150 482153 480154
      477152 473148 467143 461143 459146 458152 462159 465161
      466163 464166 460172 458176 456179 455183 456185 458183
      462184 465186 466189 471193 474194 478193 480192 484192
      485197 482199 461210 456215 453216 449216 443217 441220
      443224 447225 450228 449232 446235 444241 444247 448253
      455258 461262 462266 460272 455287 455296 457304 460318
      464330
 0.01 502715 500708 496701 492697 488695 483698 480699 480696
      481692 483689 487686 491680 493677 492672 493669 493663
      490659 488657 484659 477661 472660 469664 469667 471670
      475677 477684 474689 470694 463697 453704 448708 440710
      440713 441718 445721 451721 459719 467714 468719 470723
      475726 479730 482736 487740 490736 497725 501720 502715
 0.01 496200 496199 494198 493199 494200 496200 496200
 0.01 482227 482226 481224 481223 479223 477222 477223 479224
      480225 481226 482227 482227
 0.01 444742 444739 444737 442737 440735 438735 438736 438738
      438741 438743 439745 439746 441745 442743 444742 444742
 0.01 371188 372186 372183 370181 370180 368180 367180 366180
      365181 363180 361180 360181 359183 359185 360188 362189
      363190 365190 367190 369190 371188 371188
 0.01 307803 303792 304788 304780 289784 277784 273786 267786
      261788 257791 250797 245800 242804 240809 241815 242823
      243829 245835 246841 249844 256843 261835 262830 262823
      270817 280820 284822 289824 292824 298822 303820 306816
      307803
 0.01 305083 305076 304072 300067 297065 290064 286065 273063
      264060 258058 255058 254061 254068 256073 263078 268081
      274082 286083 293084 297083 305083
 0.25 533211 534204 534198 532189 526174 522167 517161 516163
      515166 514168 506165 502165 499167 496168 493168 488167
      487169 490176 492180 494181 498177 503183 506190 515202
      524214 527217 530216 533211
 0.25 516270 518263 519256 518246 512229 504214 500208 493204
      490201 488201 485203 481203 470212 457219 457222 459225
      462226 465224 467221 470219 478220 484225 487231 482231
      480228 475225 464231 457236 455239 456244 458247 462250
      468253 472256 473261 475270 476274 476279 474288 473299
      474310 475314 478317 485317 491313 495306 504294 511280
      516270
 0.25 500253 500250 499247 497244 495241 494240 493236 491234
      489234 491235 492238 494241 495244 496247 498250 500253
      500253
 0.25 301813 298798 295793 289791 276793 269792 262794 254801
      252806 253812 258816 260813 262806 267803 276809 280813
      284816 290817 297815 301813
 0.50 529204 530198 529194 526185 524176 522172 519170 515174
      511171 507172 506179 508185 510188 514195 519200 525206
      529204
 0.50 515267 517260 517254 515243 513235 509228 501212 497207
      492205 490203 478208 473213 472216 474217 478219 485224
      491229 498244 501247 502253 502257 500256 496249 492240
      487234 482234 480230 477228 474228 469231 463235 461240
      465244 471249 476255 480262 483271 486279 486284 485289
      484296 485301 489303 492302 497298 503291 507283 508280
      508274 505266 508268 513271 515267
 0.50 461223 460222 459220 458222 459222 460223 461223
 0.50 296807 295799 292795 290795 283796 276795 268794 264796
      262799 268801 271804 274805 280809 284814 292815 296813
      296809 296807
 1.00 512260 513251 512244 510233 504223 499212 498210 495209
      491209 485208 481209 477212 478216 488223 491226 493232
      496237 499240 503245 505250 509260 512260
 1.00 506282 505273 503266 500261 498255 494249 492243 489238
      486236 483237 477229 472231 470233 469238 471244 475249
      480253 484258 489269 496280 501283 506282
 1.00 294809 294805 293801 290799 287800 283802 282804 282806
      282809 284812 287812 290812 292811 294809
 1.00 275801 274799 273799 272799 272801 272802 274803 275801
 1.50 504276 503270 500264 495255 493250 491245 490242 488239
      483240 480237 478231 475230 473232 471234 472239 474243
      477247 483249 487254 492263 496273 500277 503276 504276
 1.50 508243 508235 507231 503228 501222 498213 496210 492212
      489212 484210 480211 479214 485220 489221 491217 493220
      492226 493231 496235 502242 506244 508243
 1.50 292809 292807 292805 291803 290802 289802 287802 285803
      284804 283805 283806 283808 284809 285810 286811 288811
      289811 291810 292809
 2.00 501272 500267 498263 493255 490245 488241 485240 482242
      480239 479234 476231 473233 472237 475242 478245 483246
      488253 493261 498271 500273 501272
 2.00 504239 504237 504236 503234 502233 502232 500230 499227
      497225 496225 496226 494228 495231 496234 498235 499237
      499238 501238 502239 504239 504239
 2.00 486217 485216 483216 482216 483217 485218 486217
 2.00 290807 290805 289804 288804 287804 286804 285804 284806
      285808 286809 287809 289809 290807
 3.00 480241 479238 479236 478233 476232 474234 474237 475239
      476240 477241 478243 480243 480241
 4.00 479241 478240 478238 478235 477235 476234 475235 475237
      477239 478241 479241

$$





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