Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 221845
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
144 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 23/0000 UTC THRU NOV 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST SOUTHWARD THRU THE OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO
THE GULF COAST REGION...

A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS ASSURED THIS
PERIOD FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES..AHEAD OF A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROF LIFTING FROM
VICINITY OF THE BIG BEND INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF IT.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE BIG
BEND SYSTEM EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
THEN TURNING IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY..AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER JET DIGS THRU THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES..ALLOWING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN H5 TROF TO ALSO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY
EVENING.  THE STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 SYSTEM WILL RAISE
PW VALUES TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN..AND THIS
COMBINED WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A DEVELOPING DIFFLUENT UPPER
FLOW AHEAD OF THESE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE
GULF COAST STATES AND EXTENDING UP THE MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST.
 AS OPPOSED TO THE LAST RUNS..THE NEW HIRES QPFS HAVE SPED UP THRU
THE GULF COAST SO THAT THEY ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE.  THIS SYSTEM HAS STRONG LIFT AND
HIGH MOISTURE..BUT WILL ALSO BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE..SO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW WHAT ARE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES IN PLACE THRUOUT MUCH OF THE AREA.  STILL..EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME 1-2+ INCH RAINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND AT LEAST SOME 2-3+
INCH TOTALS FARTHER EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE 50+KTS OF LOW
LEVEL JET ARE FORECAST.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE INITIAL H5 TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING
THE PERIOD ON 150+ KTS OF UPPER JET..WHILE LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
NEXT UPSTREAM H5 TROF MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE
STRONG JET ALONG 50N.  ENHANCED LIFT WITH THE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS/HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH THE POST FRONTAL
WEST-WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TOTALS THRUOUT THE ENTIRE REGION AND ESPECIALLY SO IN THE FAVORED
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WA AND NORTHERN OR INTO ID..UT..WESTERN WY AND
WESTERN CO.  STILL PRETTY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THESE AREAS--WITH THE NAM12 USED
PRIMARILY FOR THE FINER DETAILS.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 551118 552101 552094 551087 547076 545063 543032 541000
      538990 536978 533964 532950 528894 527886 526880 525867
      520837 514806 511795 505787 502783 499781 496781 493779
      490779 487778 483776 476772 473771 469770 469760 469754
      469747 467734 467729 468724 471718 472713 471708 469704
      466699 462698 451703 444711 438719 432725 429724 429717
      429705 429699 427691 425688 422691 421699 420709 422722
      423729 422735 419745 418750 418757 418764 419773 418777
      418785 417798 416803 416809 416816 415820 413819 408815
      405812 395798 386785 374772 367765 361759 354754 347749
      328746 309752 298758 290763 280773 275780 271789 270791
      266792 260792 256793 258797 259801 262804 269810 272818
      273824 272829 269841 268851 260869 257878 257884 259890
      258896 258903 259916 260920 259924 254930 248944 245952
      246964 248967 251970 253980 258990 264995 273998 278000
      284000 291000 296999 301998 304996 320986 328982 337978
      352974 356972 361972 364972 366976 370984 373988 376988
      385983 390983 394986 397988 400987 407984 416977 423971
      430965 437959 449952 456949 464946 469943 471939 477930
      483924 486922 489923 490927 490932 490941 488954 486960
      484964 480972 474982 470994 463038 461033 459029 452024
      446027 442032 435038 434042 433050 433054 431057 429058
      426056 422055 418057 411056 404054 394056 385052 380046
      375040 374035 378035 382033 382029 380026 376026 372027
      371031 372036 366036 364039 365044 361049 361056 370070
 0.01 370070 372081 374093 376097 378098 382095 385094 391093
      394097 397101 397104 395106 389110 381112 378114 376122
      378127 382130 386132 389136 391139 392144 394149 396153
      401162 407166 411169 414173 418173 422171 428171 429173
      428175 425184 428188 433188 438192 440195 443200 446201
      449203 448210 446214 442214 434216 430218 426218 422220
      421224 427231 415241 419249 426252 435250 437248 440249
      443254 447256 451256 460259 469264 474266 478269 481272
      484276 490283 494289 500294 506296 509296 511294 525260
      524251 522242 516227 515223 515217 516211 519210 521211
      526216 530218 533216 535213 537202 537193 537186 536182
      527169 518159 508151 503146 499140 493136 488130 486128
      483126 477123 470119 468116 469113 473108 480105 482103
      486104 491110 496115 502117 510119 516124 519129 523136
      528142 534145 538142 543136 551118
 0.01 473199 474194 473189 470188 467187 463188 461189 459192
      458194 458199 460201 463202 466202 468202 471200 473199
 0.01 475084 471075 467068 466064 464061 462065 459067 455072
      453077 453083 451085 449083 444079 437075 433074 432071
      429061 427063 424067 420081 429084 433088 450092 455097
      457099 460099 464099 466098 467094 467089 469087 475084
 0.01 456127 455121 453120 450120 448122 443116 436118 431123
      427129 427134 426136 426139 428141 430143 434143 436140
      443139 445130 452129 456127
 0.01 417139 418133 416129 410129 407129 405130 400128 397128
      398131 399136 402139 406141 411141 414140 417139
 0.01 366189 364184 361183 356181 350181 347183 345187 344193
      346197 349194 351190 355187 359186 362188 366189
 0.25 516270 518260 517252 514242 508230 503220 497208 493205
      487204 477205 467207 462209 458212 449216 445218 440219
      437221 438223 442226 447229 448236 451241 455244 462247
      468248 472249 477252 484261 489270 492276 496281 501285
      507286 510283 513278 516270
 0.25 528002 528991 527978 526955 524943 522934 519925 515918
      513918 511922 510931 508942 507954 506978 503001 503011
      503021 503024 505026 508023 513019 520017 526013 528002
 0.25 482232 482229 481229 481226 480225 479226 478228 479231
      480231 481233 482232
 0.25 487162 486157 485151 483148 480147 477147 474144 467140
      462140 458142 454149 450151 447151 443151 440154 441158
      444162 447165 448168 451178 449187 452190 456188 461183
      463179 464176 462174 458173 455170 455165 457160 460160
      464161 471165 478165 487162
 0.25 451884 452871 451865 448861 443856 435852 430852 426853
      423852 416849 409847 403842 399834 395826 393822 390819
      376823 373825 369824 367819 366816 369808 370804 370797
      366789 359783 353780 348778 345775 342771 339769 336768
      332769 328770 319772 300777 295778 291781 286787 284794
      285802 286810 285819 282827 279837 272869 271878 273888
      271895 269906 269918 269928 268933 266935 263940 260948
      258958 260961 263964 266966 267971 268975 270978 272980
      276982 286981 294980 310976 327971 332969 338965 342956
      345949 352951 361952 368956 376959 385961 389962 394962
      400959 405955 416945 427931 435921 443906 448894 451888
      451884
 0.25 420116 414111 411109 410105 407105 405107 401109 398108
      392112 385115 381118 383121 386123 392119 399119 406122
      413120 418118 420116
 0.25 413075 415072 414068 414064 405059 400059 396062 394064
      389065 385065 382069 377069 376076 377081 382081 385078
      388079 392082 395082 399080 402076 405073 408075 413075
 0.50 514261 514253 511244 509237 505231 497216 493212 486208
      478208 472209 461213 456216 453219 454223 463233 465236
      468239 474244 477245 481244 481238 479234 477231 473230
      470228 471226 476222 481221 487224 490227 492230 495236
      500243 502250 503255 500256 493245 487239 484241 482244
      482249 483252 487259 494273 498279 500281 504282 508280
      511271 514261
 0.50 522973 522962 522955 520949 518947 515948 514955 512965
      512973 512980 514988 515993 516995 518993 519989 521981
      522973
 0.50 475159 475158 475156 474155 473153 472152 471151 470150
      469149 467149 466148 464149 463151 463154 464156 465157
      467158 468159 470159 471160 473159 475159 475159
 0.50 432888 432884 430879 425873 420868 414863 408859 403857
      395854 391854 389857 386859 382860 374859 368859 365858
      362855 360851 357845 355836 355830 356827 359821 361814
      362809 362804 358797 352792 343784 338779 335776 332776
      325779 317782 307783 303784 299787 295791 292797 291805
      292814 290820 287828 283846 280859 277869 277877 279880
      279886 277895 275916 276921 275927 272933 268937 265943
      264946 263952 266955 270956 273958 276962 276965 278969
      282971 287972 294970 300967 305964 312960 318962 326964
      331963 333960 335952 335941 334936 337933 342928 347923
      350921 354921 360924 363933 366940 371944 379945 385945
      393946 397945 400943 405937 410931 417919 421912 425905
      426899 430895 432888
 0.50 412071 412069 412068 410066 409066 403065 400066 398071
      400073 402071 406069 411071 412072 412071
 0.50 398113 398112 396112 394112 392114 390114 392115 394115
      396114 398113 398113
 0.50 392077 393075 393073 392071 391070 390070 389073 389075
      390077 390078 392078 392077
 1.00 502275 502270 500264 498260 496257 494253 491248 488247
      489252 490258 492262 494267 496271 499275 502275
 1.00 485217 486214 484212 481211 477211 474212 470214 466217
      463218 459220 460223 462223 464221 468220 473219 476218
      480218 485218 485217
 1.00 402878 403873 402869 398867 393869 389872 385877 384879
      384884 386890 388897 389900 390898 393892 397888 400883
      402878
 1.00 354821 355814 353811 351810 346808 344801 343795 341790
      338787 334785 302800 305823 304828 301832 293837 286859
      284869 285877 286880 286884 286892 283903 283911 285916
      284921 282925 271943 271946 272947 277948 281949 282951
      284956 285961 290963 295961 299958 314947 318943 318936
      320931 318925 312916 312914 315910 319907 321906 321902
      318889 318884 319878 324870 337854 343847 346838 354821
 1.50 478215 477215 475214 475215 477215 478215
 1.50 349824 348822 344821 341821 339819 333809 328804 323800
      318798 315799 312801 311804 311808 312815 312818 311825
      309832 306838 303842 298845 294850 291857 291863 290872
      296885 295890 292895 289901 291907 296908 302905 306901
      308895 311882 316869 322858 328846 334837 338833 344831
      347827 349824
 1.50 311939 307936 308932 309929 308928 305926 295924 292922
      288922 283930 278937 276944 285943 290943 292945 293948
      296948 299947 308943 311939
 2.00 327814 328811 327809 326807 326806 325805 324804 323803
      322803 320804 319806 320808 320810 321810 322812 323813
      324814 324815 326815 327814
 2.00 320847 319841 318838 314838 311839 305844 300848 296853
      295862 296870 301876 304876 307875 311869 314862 317856
      320848 320847
 3.00 310856 310854 309853 307852 305853 304855 303857 302858
      302859 301861 301863 302864 304864 306863 308861 309858
      309857 310856

$$





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