Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 220640
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 22/1200 UTC THRU JUL 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY
RETROGRADING THE CLOSED H5 LOW NOW VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHEASTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  TO THE EAST OF THIS
SYSTEM..VERY HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC..SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES..AND ESPECIALLY SO FROM FL AND GA INTO THE CARLOINAS AND
BACK OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY..WHERE 2+ INCH PWS WILL BE COMMON.
EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THRUOUT THIS ENTIRE
REGION AS HEATING INCREASES ON TUESDAY..BUT WITH SEVERAL ENHANCED
AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.  ONE SUCH AREA WILL BE THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS..AND IN PARTICULAR COASTAL NC..WHERE ATLANTIC INFLOW OF
VERY DEEP MOISTURE IS MAXIMIZED INTO A WEAK SURFACE/COASTAL TROF
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  HERE..AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH RAINS COULD
OCCUR..BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAINS DUE TO
THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE AND SLOW CELL MOVEMENT.  A 2ND AREA OF
ENHANCED RAINS IS LIKELY VICINITY OF THE RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY..WITH A 3RD AREA OVER
THE CENTRAL PARTS OF FL VICINITY OF CONVERGING SEA BREEZES.  IN
BOTH OF THESE AREAS..EXPECT AREAL AVERAGE RAINS OF 0.50-1.00 INCH.


...GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST...

THE WELL DEFINED MCV/WELL DEFINED H5 S/WV VICINITY OF NORTHWESTERN
MN AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY EASTWARD THRU THE EXTREME
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES 1ST HALF OF THE PERIOD..TAKING THE MCS WITH
IT.  THE HEAVIER RAINS WILL BARELY GRAZE THE EXTREME NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES..WITH ANY 0.50+ INCH AMOUNTS PULLING OUT OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MN AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE U.P. OF MI.  LATER IN THE PERIOD..MAINLY ON TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT..THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE DIGGING H5 TROF
SHOULD FOCUS INCREASING CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER GREATS BACK INTO
THE MIDWEST..WITH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE/BACKSIDE OF THE H5 TROF AIDING IN LARGE SCALE
LIFT.  PWS ARE FORECAST TO POOL TO AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THIS
FRONT..SO SOME BRIEFLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE..BUT
OVERALL PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH RANGE.  LEANED TOWARDS THE
HEAVIER ECMWF HIRES AND GFS QPFS IN THE MIDWEST.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...

THE H5 TROF DIGGING FROM OFF THE B.C. COAST TO OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THIS PERIOD WILL PULL WEAK S/WV ENERGY THRU PARTS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY
BEFORE PULLING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY NOW
OFF THE CA COAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED THRUOUT MUCH OF THIS
REGION..WITH ENHANCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS THRUOUT THE ENTIRE DAY 1
PERIOD.  AGAIN..WITH MODEL QPFS NOT IN ESPECIALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT..AT LEAST ON WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL
OCCUR..CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW REGARDING THE FINER QPF
DETAILS.  DID TRY TO STICK CLOSER TO SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE..INCLUDING THE NAM12 AND ECMWF HIRES.


...EASTERN NM...

EXPECT HEATING AND A WEAK FOCUSING SURFACE TROF TO INTIATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MORE ENHANCED CONVECTION PARTS OF EASTERN NM INTO EXTREME
WESTERN TX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING..WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AREAL
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PER MUCH OF THE MODEL QPF GUIDANCE.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 537746 536735 533725 529714 524707 521704 518704 512705
      505709 499715 487724 475736 464747 453759 444771 439778
      434785 429791 424799 417811 410826 407835 402842 386870
      379883 374891 371899 368908 369920 371927 376934 380939
      383941 387940 391934 395924 405915 410908 414900 422886
      423882 427884 430886 433884 446877 450875 454874 456876
      457879 457886 458898 458904 458909 464915 470920 482928
      485930 489930 494929 497927 502923 507916 510908 514899
      517889 518878 520868 523858 525850 526838 528813 533792
      534781 534771 534762 535756 537746
 0.01 518273 519268 519262 517255 512250 508244 500232 496233
      495238 497240 500246 502250 503254 501257 497256 492253
      489252 486253 482257 482262 483265 488270 491276 496282
      497284 501286 504288 507288 512284 516278 518273
 0.01 511186 510175 506166 505160 507156 507143 503134 501131
      500128 501124 505113 506109 506104 503095 499093 495094
      488100 482106 481110 482115 486123 484125 482125 478122
      475119 474113 473110 474107 474101 475093 474088 471077
      471073 473071 476069 477063 480060 481052 480045 476037
      471031 465027 457027 453030 448031 443031 439032 436035
      436040 441045 452047 457048 460051 461060 462067 461074
      461080 462083 460086 455078 449073 443072 448081 450086
      447089 440091 436093 436095 447113 443124 439132 436143
      435150 437155 434165 433168 431168 429163 423157 421162
      420168 420171 417172 415173 410173 407177 394188 390193
      386195 381195 384200 395203 400205 404207 408214 414215
      416215 418218 419223 417227 417231 419235 427236 432244
      433249 434256 436258 440257 446253 453248 459243 465240
      468238 473239 477238 479235 482230 485228 491223 497216
      500206 500200 502196 506189 511186
 0.01 486146 485144 484143 483141 483140 482138 480138 479140
      477140 475141 475142 474144 475145 476145 478146 480147
      481147 483147 484148 486146
 0.01 465197 466192 466189 467184 466182 464184 463186 461188
      459191 458195 456197 455201 458203 460200 462200 465199
      465197
 0.01 434191 432188 430186 427185 423186 421187 419190 418192
      416194 418196 422195 424195 426194 429192 431192 434191
 0.01 400062 400055 397048 394043 390045 388047 385047 378046
      374050 375055 375058 379058 382059 384061 389064 391066
      394067 398064 400062
 0.01 371816 372808 374799 377795 382788 383783 380780 377777
      372773 369768 367760 366753 367743 366734 358728 348729
      330751 312768 308772 302775 294778 286780 257788 254789
      254793 249798 246803 247813 254822 265829 269833 275836
      280840 285846 289859 290880 289884 287885 283887 282890
      279896 279906 280924 283940 285947 289952 296950 298943
      299935 298925 305912 318914 325913 330911 342905 347900
      350893 352886 354877 355869 357861 359848 360843 361839
      364832 370820 371816
 0.01 370050 371043 370036 371027 372020 371013 366011 356016
      348020 343024 339027 334031 331036 328049 311074 298072
      292069 288066 285064 286061 290058 298052 295050 288049
      283050 279050 276048 270047 265047 261052 259054 256054
      251052 247048 245043 241039 234039 233045 235051 237056
      241059 242064 246069 250073 254077 259079 268086 277090
      288097 297102 303104 306104 308102 311099 315095 318090
      323087 325085 329087 332091 335095 340098 342095 343087
      345080 350076 351069 354064 363058 368055 370050
 0.25 516267 517262 515259 512254 511251 507249 506253 506257
      507261 505263 503265 500265 495264 495269 496271 500275
      503278 505274 506270 508268 513269 516267
 0.25 529748 529741 527735 525729 522726 518725 514726 506732
      502739 499743 497748 495760 492769 486790 484800 481809
      476817 470826 464831 455834 448838 446842 444846 445852
      449854 455854 463854 465858 466866 467882 468894 469899
      471904 475907 479908 484909 486912 490913 494911 500906
      505896 511877 514867 516854 518843 519829 520817 522805
      526780 527772 528763 529748
 0.25 480211 481205 480201 475202 469205 462208 457211 451215
      450218 452222 458226 462226 465224 469219 474214 480211
 0.25 460146 461141 460137 457136 453136 451137 450139 448143
      447145 445150 446155 447158 449158 451157 453155 455153
      457151 459148 460146
 0.25 444218 444216 443215 442214 441214 439214 437215 436216
      436217 438219 440219 441220 442220 443218 444218
 0.25 429848 429841 427838 422837 419840 410854 405860 399864
      394871 390878 381893 378901 377905 378909 381912 385911
      391906 394903 398902 401900 404898 412882 420867 427852
      429848
 0.25 308847 306856 305868 304884 305895 309900 316900 321899
      327894 329887 331881 333875 336866 339856 341844 343833
      343824 343817 345810 351797 356787 358777 359769 357763
      355758 355751 352748 347750 341758 327774 320780 311787
      301791 296793 289793 283793 281794 280797 289801 292803
      295807 290809 283808 263804 260803 257805 256809 258815
      262818 281825 289829 296830 301831 310835 308847
 0.25 356033 356029 354028 348029 343031 339036 336041 334047
      334054 340052 344050 349047 352042 355035 356033
 0.25 316812 317818 320818 323814 325809 326807 323803 321804
      317809 316812
 0.25 294088 294081 292079 289079 283078 277077 272074 269070
      265068 262070 267073 272077 276080 281083 285087 291089
      294088
 0.50 525754 524749 523743 522739 519738 513742 507748 505753
      502762 497777 491792 488810 486817 482824 472835 468839
      467843 468848 472854 473865 472886 473897 475900 478902
      484903 491901 497897 501891 507876 511859 514841 516821
      519801 522784 524768 525754
 0.50 403880 403876 402872 398872 395876 391881 388886 385893
      383898 383902 385904 390900 394895 397891 400886 403880
 0.50 354775 354770 353768 351764 348763 343766 338770 335775
      332780 330782 331785 333785 334789 337793 342792 347787
      351783 353777 354775
 0.50 317885 316876 314873 312874 310880 311887 314893 316891
      317885
 0.50 301821 299817 296815 288815 280813 273812 267810 264808
      260809 264815 272818 277820 285822 292823 298823 301821
 1.00 518772 518762 514762 510773 499796 495808 491820 488835
      484846 483853 484860 483867 482874 478888 479892 482893
      485892 487888 489881 495871 498866 503862 505859 507851
      510837 512822 513805 515790 518772
 1.50 507828 508818 506808 504807 502808 499814 498822 497830
      495837 493843 492848 493851 497851 499850 503844 505839
      506831 507828

$$




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