Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240737
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 24/1200 UTC THRU SEP 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES...

CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE N-S ORIENTED JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH...EVIDENCED BY THE NARROW N-S VORT LOBE (NARROW AXIS) JUST
BEHIND THE MAIN MID LEVEL VORT CENTER. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE A RATHER ABRUPT END TO THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COMMA
HEAD...THOUGH WHILE RELATIVELY NARROW THE ENHANCED FGEN WILL MAKE
FOR A PRODUCTIVE TROWAL IN TERMS OF PCPN
EFFICIENCY/PRODUCTION...PARTICULARLY THROUGH 00Z SUN. WITH PW
ANOMALIES STILL A HEALTHY 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THAT TIME...THE MODELS (BOTH GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES) CONTINUE
TO DEPICT SOME RATHER ROBUST TOTALS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY INTO
EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND. USING A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WPC
NOTED AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2" ACROSS THIS AREA...WHILE
THE HIGH-RES CAMS SHOW ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3-4" OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND SOUTHEAST MT GIVEN THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITH THE 850-700 MB
NORTHERLY FLOW. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY WILL
BE SORELY LACKING OVER THIS REGION (AS THUS WILL SHORT-TERM
RAINFALL RATES)...AS CURRENT AND MODEL FORECAST CAPES OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE (ABOVE 200 J/KG) WERE NOTED FARTHER EAST OF THE
TROWAL/MAX PCPN SHIELD...I.E. FARTHER EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. AS A
RESULT...THE RISK FOR SHORT-TERM RUNOFF ISSUES WILL BE
MARGINAL/ISOLATED AT BEST.


...CENTRAL U.S....

A LINE OF MOD-HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL ON TRACK ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT/PROGRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING
THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE FASTER W-E FRONTAL PROGRESSION ALONG WITH
WEAKER AVAILABLE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL AVERAGE LESS IN
COMPARISON TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

DESPITE THE SLOWER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTAL PROGRESSION...WPC
DID LEAN TOWARD THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE (WRF-ARW...NMMB...AND RGEM)
WITH RESPECT TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...GIVEN THE MORE ROBUST DEGREE OF PRE-FRONTAL
INSTABILITY (DEVELOPING COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES)...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND TIGHTENING PW
GRADIENT. HOWEVER... EXPECT AN UPTICK IN PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW OVERNIGHT...WHILE BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN
850-300 MB FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED POTENTIAL A
SLOWER QLCS PROGRESSION AND THUS CELL TRAINING...AS NOTED PER THE
WEAKENING CORFIDI VECTORS WHICH THE MODELS SHOW BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME OVERNIGHT (INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING UPWIND
PROPAGATION). DESPITE THE WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG WITH THE
FAVORABLE MOIST PROFILE (PWS OF 1.75-2.00") AND HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF CELL TRAINING WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT
RISK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. IN TERMS OF THE QPF...WPC
UTILIZED A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE WITH THE AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS
(MAX STRIPE OF 1-1.5")...HOWEVER THE HIGH-RES CAMS SHOW POCKETS OF
MUCH HIGHER TOTALS (3-6") GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILE...ESPECIALLY LATE SAT INTO
EARLY SUN.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 228025 232027 236030 241036 241042 242045 240050 237051
      231057 229061 230064 233079 235087 236091 237092 243093
      247093 253091 256092 261094 268099 274100 280093 281091
      284093 286091 290082 293071 298065 303059 314047 319042
      324036 338025 345020 353016 367009 380998 386992 393988
      412985 421985 425983 430983 444980 449981 455982 459984
      464986 472988 478994 480995 480999 476001 470006 465012
      461020 455026 445026 437028 433030 431034 423046 418055
      416058 411058 403055 399055 396057 393061 389063 387065
      388070 404105 401109 396110 393113 392116 399121 404122
      408121 415116 422115 436110 443104 450100 453098 455095
      460088 468084 471081 474075 477071 481071 484069 489069
      492067 497067 504064 511061 518056 529050 539049 542047
      546047 553046 558046 559040 562015 562007 561002 561997
      561988 561979 559968 555958 551948 547941 541935 538931
      535929 510913 503905 497897 495893 491893 480894 478895
      476900 472904 467903 451899 444894 439889 435887 432883
      425885 430908 424909 419911 415913 409915 401917 397919
      394922 382935 376939 368942 364944 359945 352948 337956
      329960 325962 322960 316954 313948 308942 301938 294933
      286933 266927 262931 262937 265941 263949 259956 259962
      259966 260968 257969 254971 252974 254976 261980 275985
      284987 286991 287993 286996 283006 280010 276013 265013
      262010 259007 254001 250999 245000 243005 239009 234011
      232012 229011
 0.01 523264 524257 522252 521247 516245 512237 507229 502227
      499224 497221 495220 493222 492225 494230 497239 499245
      496248 490241 487238 484239 477235 474240 476243 478248
      479254 477268 477274 479278 485285 488288 493291 500290
      508291 517281
 0.01 497670 496662 493656 491652 489651 486652 483656 482662
      481668 479676 477687 475693 475700 474706 477712 480711
      483708 488696 492687 496676 497670
 0.01 480140 481137 481135 479134 478132 478131 476131 474130
      473130 471130 470133 470135 470138 471140 472141 473141
      475141 477140 478140 480140 480140
 0.01 474159 473153 471149 468146 465143 460142 456142 452145
      451151 453155 457157 461160 464162 469164 472161 474159
 0.01 392054 390052 388052 386052 383054 381051 377051 376051
      372053 376053 379053 381056 383054 384056 386056 390054
      392054
 0.01 387779 386774 384772 382770 381768 379766 377764 375762
      372762 372765 372768 375772 376774 378776 380777 382779
      384780 387779
 0.01 384795 384793 384790 383788 382786 380786 378786 378787
      376789 376792 377794 379796 381798 383798 384795 384795
 0.01 349780 349776 347774 343776 341780 340783 338781 343755
      342747 338743 335743 332747 329753 325753 312752 301756
      294758 291760 280765 275768 271772 267775 265781 263785
      260789 251795 246798 243803 241807 239812 239819 241825
      243827 246828 250825 255815 262822 270827 279830 285828
      289828 290831 291835 293836 298838 300843 298847 296851
      296855 298857 303869 302897 304899 307899 310896 311890
      312882 309855 309846 311841 312834 315828 321820 329814
      333811 336807 342797 346789 349780
 0.01 333793 332792 330793 328794 328795 327796 328798 330797
      331796 332795 333793
 0.01 316806 312803 308799 304794 297794 290797 285800 284802
      286804 291807 296809 301810 308811 311811 315809 316806
 0.25 552993 550982 548975 545967 541960 533949 526941 514931
      505921 501916 495913 485920 457916 431922 419926 406931
      394938 387943 380945 367951 361953 354955 342960 332967
      322974 314987 310994 306998 300000 296002 294004 291010
      286015 279017 274019 265029 263035 262038 260036 255031
      253030 248029 246031 246034 249038 251042 249051 246057
      246064 249070 250073 254075 260078 267079 273077 278074
      281070 283062 283055 281049 287050 292054 296054 299053
      303049 307043 315030 320024 325020 334012 340008 346006
      358003 365000 371996 381987 386984 391980 399979 406977
      420973 426972 434971 449971 461967 467966 473963 474959
      474954 474951 478950 486951 493954 503962 507967 507974
      502988 500996 495002 488010 475019 472021 469023 465028
      460031 454033 441036 436042 432047 429054 426062 424071
      422077 421081 422085 424090 429094 432096 436095 441091
      445086 456079 468070 474066 479064 491060 501054 512050
      523044 534035 539031 543025 546017 548006 552993
 0.25 517268 518260 517255 514251 511248 509243 506239 505245
      504252 504259 505265 508269 513270 516269 517268
 0.25 506276 506269 503266 500263 496260 493256 490254 487257
      487264 488268 490273 493276 496278 501280 505279 506276
 0.25 409108 410105 411103 411101 411099 411096 410094 408092
      408093 408096 408097 408098 408100 408103 407103 407105
      406107 406109 407111 408110 409109 409108
 0.25 312973 310965 308960 305954 303949 294942 283937 278936
      274936 272938 270945 270952 268957 270963 268973 272977
      278978 284980 292979 297978 303979 307977 312973
 0.25 280811 276805 274801 270796 264796 259797 253800 251806
      252808 256808 260807 267808 271810 277813 280811
 0.50 547990 545977 541967 536960 532955 528952 521949 513946
      511947 511950 514956 519965 521971 523977 521981 518985
      512994 507002 500009 494014 478023 464033 455036 445038
      441041 439044 434053 431064 431070 431078 431085 436086
      441080 451078 458073 472063 480059 488054 495049 503045
      510042 520038 527034 532026 535024 538020 543009 547990
 0.50 508942 507939 506934 505929 504926 502924 500923 499921
      496921 497925 499928 501931 502934 504937 505939 507942
      508942
 0.50 500942 499941 498939 497939 496937 494935 493934 492933
      491933 490934 491935 492936 493937 494937 495939 496940
      497940 499942 500942
 0.50 464927 460924 453924 441925 430928 417932 375951 364955
      355959 345965 340968 335972 328981 324985 321988 313996
      304003 299006 297012 296015 294016 288017 276020 272025
      269029 270033 272034 277037 288040 296041 300044 305042
      308038 311032 313026 315022 320018 337004 342001 348999
      359997 365995 370992 378985 387977 391974 394972 397974
      401975 405974 410972 421968 433965 443961 447959 454957
      460955 463949 463940 461934 464927
 0.50 298952 293945 286941 282939 277939 275941 274947 275953
      272958 278964 277968 274972 274974 279975 283974 286972
      289968 290963 295956 298952
 0.50 273807 273805 272805 271804 270803 270802 268801 266800
      265800 264802 265804 266804 267805 268806 269807 271808
      273808 273807
 0.50 274071 274067 274063 271058 268053 263051 258051 252054
      250056 250061 253065 257069 262072 267075 272073 274071
 1.00 531008 532002 530002 526005 521007 516009 496021 489027
      484031 477031 469036 458040 448043 443048 439052 437059
      437063 439065 443067 446070 450072 452071 456067 466060
      473054 478049 481044 485040 488035 490034 493035 499038
      504037 509034 518028 526021 529015 531008
 1.00 437949 435945 431942 426940 416940 412938 407940 400945
      399949 401951 400954 398958 399966 401968 405968 414964
      423961 429957 436952 437949
 1.00 391961 392957 390955 385954 373955 364959 355965 346971
      339978 332986 324994 321997 316999 308007 304010 304014
      304017 307019 312017 321011 329004 337998 346993 366985
      375980 380976 383972 391961
 1.00 283024 281024 283025 283024
 1.00 269066 269064 269062 268060 267058 266057 265057 263057
      261057 261058 259058 258059 257061 257063 258065 260065
      260066 262067 264068 265068 266068 267068 269066
 1.50 514022 515020 514018 514017 513016 512017 511017 509018
      508019 506021 505021 504023 504024 504026 506028 507028
      509028 510027 511027 512025 513025 514023 514022
 1.50 468051 469046 468043 462043 457044 451046 448048 443053
      441060 445064 448065 452065 457062 461060 466055 468051
 1.50 413956 412956 410956 410957 412957 413956
 1.50 409959 409958 407957 406959 407959 409959 409959
 1.50 382965 381960 378959 373959 362965 352972 342980 333990
      329994 327997 328999 337992 348985 361981 370974 380966
      382965
 1.50 265064 265062 264061 262061 261062 262064 264064 265064
 2.00 465048 463047 460047 458048 456050 454051 451053 449055
      449058 450061 451061 454059 456058 459057 461056 463054
      465050 465048

$$





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