Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

218
FXUS04 KWBC 211858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 22/0000 UTC THRU JUL 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTHERN PLAIN/UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATL...

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
UNFOLDING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MN...NORTHERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL...WITH
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.  A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY...ALONG WITH
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALONG THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEPENING MOISTURE POOL
COINCIDENT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN
IL.  GUIDANCE SHOWS 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW SUPPORTING PWS
OF 2 INCHES OR MORE AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH.  WHILE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS REMAIN...THE 12 UTC
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING ACROSS IA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS AS SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL INFLOW CONTINUES TO CHANNEL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THE OVERALL
MODEL TREND IN THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE WAS TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY
AXIS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE WPC QPF.
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO FOCUS FROM NORTHEASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IL...WHERE SOME OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES.  THESE AMOUNTS MAY PROVE
PROBLEMATIC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IL WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN VERY WET
SOIL CONDITIONS.  IN ADDITION TO SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...ALSO EXTENDED SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE EAST
ACROSS LAKE MI INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IND WHERE
SEVERAL OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOW STRONG CONVECTION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ON SAT...MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY.
WHILE CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY THE LATE
MORNING...SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOW AT LEAST SOME MODERATE
AMOUNTS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN OH.  THERE WAS ALSO A GROWING
SIGNAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH SOME THE MODELS SHOWING HEAVY AMOUNTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATL.

MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...MODELS SHOW
A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA LATE FRI-EARLY SAT.  WHILE THE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE LIMITED...STRONG
FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES FROM
EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NORTHERN MN FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

WHILE SOME SUBTLE DRYING IS EXPECTED THROUGH PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN...PATTERN WILL REMAIN MUCH THE SAME WITH THE AREA WELL
ENTRENCHED IN MONSOONAL CIRCULATION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS
VALLEY.  THE HIGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
VORTS/MCVS ROTATING EMBEDDED WITHIN  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS BURN SCAR AREAS AND
NEAR STEEPER TERRAIN.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PEREIRA

24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 547074 546063 544049 541033 540018 541010 539004 537992
      535976 532966 530954 527943 523934 518923 511906 503885
      495865 490853 486843 483839 481842 479854 477867 475872
      473877 469876 465874 461864 458859 457853 457846 458842
      457827 456820 455816 452806 449801 444799 436798 433796
      431794 432791 431784 430778 428772 424767 412752 407745
      404743 399742 390742 382748 377753 370758 363764 361768
      360772 361778 363784 366789 369793 368797 365800 362804
      358807 351813 347817 344821 341825 339831 337834 333837
      325842 321834 316827 309820 307817 306811 302806 298802
      293800 290799 292797 296794 302789 306786 309782 311779
      312776 310772 305771 299772 294771 288772 283774 277775
      273778 270779 265783 258788 250792 248795 245794 244799
      244803 247813 251819 256828 260834 264839 263845 263851
      262856 259877 257890 256895 256901 258912 259925 262947
      266956 271962 274965 276966 279965 284965 288968 291968
      298964 306959 310956 313952 317944 321935 328926 332919
      337911 340902 344891 345884 345880 348871 351862 360845
      369841 374840 377843 381854 385861 389861 391859 392862
      391867 387870 391881 396891 399895 402900 406911 409919
      410933 410961 410967 409974 406981 399002 396000 396997
      394992 391981 382964 377975 377981 378986 378000 379005
      379012 382024 384033 384035 381035 378036 366035 360042
      355049 350049 346047 338042 334039 330037 326038 322039
      315034 307030 301027 296027 292027 290033 292041 297043
      300048 298052 293053 282052 271051 267052 262054 259055
      256058 249060 247065 250069 254078 260084 267088 275093
      279099
 0.01 279099 288107 299113 303115 308119 314121 319123 334126
      339129 342134 346139 348141 351142 355145 362146 373143
      377141 381136 384130 388125 394117 397111 398108 397105
      404094 407091 412088 416085 420079 423064 423057 418052
      412050 410049 409045 409037 410029 420023 423020 425018
      425012 425006 422006 419003 420995 423989 428975 431971
      439972 449995 453000 457004 460008 463004 470995 475993
      482992 486997 490003 496013 503024 509033 516044 523053
      531063 535067 539070 545072 547074
 0.01 516283 518274 520264 520255 518249 517243 516236 517229
      516224 512220 507216 500208 493207 490210 488217 487224
      490229 491235 487233 481231 476230 474232 473236 472240
      473244 473252 470270 469276 470281 469286 468290 469293
      469296 471297 475294 479292 484289 487295 490307 493308
      495307 499304 506298 512290 515286 516283
 0.01 451930 448923 446920 443922 440929 436936 435947 434957
      438961 441965 443963 447961 448957 445953 444949 443945
      444942 447934 451930
 0.01 378105 379103 377101 376100 374098 372098 371096 369097
      367099 365099 363101 365103 366103 367104 368105 370106
      371106 373106 375106 377106 378105
 0.25 514274 516259 515249 513242 510234 507228 503223 496220
      494221 493227 495233 497243 497245 493244 488240 485240
      483245 482251 483260 486267 490273 496277 503279 508280
      510281 512279 514274
 0.25 532024 533015 533006 532991 530976 527965 519943 515934
      512923 504900 500891 496881 491870 489869 486871 484875
      477896 472905 469908 466913 465917 467921 470925 474927
      472932 464938 456942 452945 451947 454949 457951 458957
      458973 459979 460981 462982 466981 470978 477973 486970
      490968 492965 491961 490955 492949 501954 502968 499987
      500001 502008 508016 513025 519033 523036 526037 528035
      532024
 0.25 444827 444817 443812 441809 438809 435811 431816 430818
      426818 422816 421801 423795 423786 421780 418774 411764
      403755 398754 392753 386756 384762 383766 385770 388776
      394783 376799 371808 367813 363817 354825 352831 356835
      361833 365829 372821 377823 382826 387828 393829 396834
      399839 402855 405861 405869 407878 408885 409894 411901
      415912 417920 418929 419948 420966 422968 424965 425959
      428944 433930 438918 442906 444899 445891 445882 443874
      441867 440860 438854 434847 432839 438836 442832 444827
 0.25 405030 405021 403018 400020 397028 395036 391043 387048
      384050 379049 372047 366050 364053 366056 369059 368061
      361065 362070 364073 370077 376082 379081 381078 387073
      393071 398065 401058 402052 401047 402039 405030
 0.25 355120 348110 345105 344098 348086 339080 329079 323080
      319080 314076 312070 311067 309065 304063 291063 277063
      271063 264064 260067 261072 277086 284095 288098 294100
      299103 307106 314106 319104 324102 327101 331102 335106
      338111 342115 346117 351120 355120
 0.25 334058 332056 330055 329055 328055 327057 328058 330058
      332058 334058
 0.25 317896 317892 315890 311892 310894 310899 310903 310907
      311911 312911 313909 315905 316903 316898 317896
 0.25 309043 308041 307040 306039 305038 304037 302038 303040
      304041 305042 306043 307044 309043
 0.25 307947 308937 307926 302921 300922 297921 296917 296912
      297903 298898 297893 295891 291891 285894 281895 276895
      274898 273902 272910 273915 275919 280923 285928 286931
      287935 285944 286948 288950 295950 299954 305952 307947
 0.25 292835 284829 279825 277824 277820 279817 281817 287816
      290816 291814 287810 282806 278805 270804 265804 261804
      260807 260812 263818 267821 269822 268825 269828 271829
      275832 281834 286835 289836 292835
 0.25 287791 285789 282788 278789 274790 271790 268792 267794
      270795 271796 275795 278794 280794 284793 287791
 0.50 513258 512250 511244 508238 505232 500228 497229 498237
      501243 504249 507256 509260 512260 513258
 0.50 528015 529004 529994 529983 527976 523962 518949 513936
      508924 498898 495892 491888 489889 487892 486899 484907
      485915 486919 485922 481927 479935 479939 481942 494944
      499946 503950 506955 507962 503976 503995 505001 508007
      512012 514017 517023 520025 523024 528015
 0.50 501267 501262 499259 498257 497254 495251 493248 491247
      489247 487249 486254 487257 489260 491261 492264 494264
      495266 498267 501267
 0.50 485964 485959 484955 482949 477947 472947 467951 465957
      463964 462970 464972 467973 472970 477968 482966 485964
 0.50 441901 442895 442887 441881 440876 437865 434855 425840
      425831 423827 421822 418819 417814 417802 419792 420786
      418781 414773 409766 403760 399759 395761 392763 394769
      396774 397779 397789 396793 392796 385801 379807 379813
      381818 388820 396823 399826 401830 403843 406852 408864
      409877 410888 413898 417907 419918 419930 421941 423942
      426940 430931 437914 440907 441901
 0.50 395062 396058 396055 392055 388056 384058 379058 378062
      376066 374070 376073 378071 382069 387068 391066 393064
      395062
 0.50 338100 338099 337097 338097 339095 340093 339091 338091
      337091 335093 335095 336097 336098 338100 338100
 0.50 320095 319091 315088 307081 300074 298069 295066 282066
      276069 279074 283078 289085 298090 299096 303099 308101
      314101 320095
 0.50 273818 272816 271816 270815 268815 266815 265817 266818
      267819 268819 270819 272819 273818
 1.00 520973 520970 520968 519965 519962 518962 518960 517958
      516957 515955 514954 513955 512957 512960 512962 512965
      513968 513970 514971 514973 515974 517975 518974 520973
      520973
 1.00 438899 439890 438881 433869 432862 430855 424846 421841
      418835 421830 418826 408803 403802 399806 396813 397816
      404817 407820 409828 408833 406836 406840 407849 410863
      411879 412887 414893 419906 421919 422927 426931 429927
      431921 438899
 1.00 418788 417782 415778 411775 409773 405770 401772 400776
      399784 401788 405790 409791 412794 416792 418788
 1.50 436897 437891 436886 435878 429866 429858 425851 421846
      416842 414841 411842 409845 409850 412866 413876 414886
      416895 419902 420910 422919 425925 428923 429920 434904
      436897
 1.50 415788 417786 414783 412783 413786 414787 415788
 2.00 434892 434884 432877 427868 425862 425858 423855 418851
      413849 415861 414877 417892 420905 423912 426917 429913
      431907 433899 434892
 3.00 428900 429894 427883 425877 423879 423887 423892 423898
      425900 427900 428900
 3.00 421895 420893 420892 420893 420895 420897 421895

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.