Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 180658
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 18/1200 UTC THRU FEB 19/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY-UPPER GREAT LAKES...

LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ALLOW
FOR AN UPTICK IN DEEP-LAYER WAA WITHIN A MORE AMPLIFIED, EXPANSIVE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TOWARD A STRONGLY -PNA, THE STRENGTHENING
CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL BOLSTER THE
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER, WHICH
(UNDERNEATH ITS BROAD ENTRANCE REGION) WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND THEREBY HINDER THE SURFACE WARM FRONT`S
NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THE UPSHOT IS A STRIPE OF HIGHER
LIQUID-EQUIVALENT QPF FROM NORTHEAST MN-FAR NORTHERN WI INTO THE
NORTH PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MI WHERE THE (ROUGHLY 12 HOUR)
PERIOD OF FAVORABLY DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT CAN EFFECTIVELY
COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FORCING/INDUCED FRONTOGENESIS.

IN TERMS OF THE QPF, WPC STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONTINUITY
(PREVIOUS FORECAST), ESSENTIALLY A NON-GFS BLEND, WHICH COMPARED
QUITE FAVORABLY TO THE 00Z ECMWF, UKMET, HREF MEAN, AND 03Z NBM.
THE GFS MEANWHILE WAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAX QPF AXIS,
IN WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE AWAY FROM THE BEST LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND SOUTH OF THE OPTIMALLY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS PER THE 285-305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES.


...PAC NW/NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO UPPER MIDWEST...

A RATHER DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE COMING UP FOR THE WEST, AS A
DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE PAC NW COAST AND CRASH UPPER
HEIGHTS TO EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A VERY COLD AND ANOMALOUS LONG
WAVE TROUGH. BEFORE THEN, THE ACTION ON SUN OCCURS ACROSS THE NWRN
QUAD OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SHORT WAVE ARRIVING
INTO WA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHEAR-OUT THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND THE STREAM OF UPPER DYNAMICS REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SURFACE WAVE TO TRACK FROM EASTERN WY/WESTERN SD TO
NORTHERN MN AND A POCKET OF ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT FOR A STREAK OF
SNOW OVER ND INTO NORTHERN MN. MEANWHILE BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE
FEATURE, A MID TO UPPER LOW WILL DIG DOWN THE WA COAST INTO OR
ALONG WITH A VOLATILE UPPER JET TO COUNTERACT THE MARGINAL PAC
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. REGARDLESS, EXPECT DECENT QPF AMOUNTS ALONG
COASTAL WA/OR INTO THE CASCADES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST, AS SNOW LEVELS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. WPC
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BASE OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF AMOUNTS


HURLEY/MUSHER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML



THIS DISCUSSION WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED-CASE FEB 26, 2018.  THE
LISTING OF ISOHYET POINTS CONTAINED BELOW WILL ALSO BE ELIMINATED
FROM THE PRODUCT FEB 26, 2018.  ISOHYET GRID INFORMATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED IN A VARIETY OF BINARY FORMATS AND MADE
AVAILABLE THROUGH THE WPC GIS PAGE.

24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 456625 458629 460636 462648 469666 471672 474677 477684
      476689 473693 472696 468697 468693 466692 461694 454694
      446700 439703 431706 426707 424707 419707 415706 409703
      404696 402693 401688 399674 398668 396663 395654 398646
      400643
 0.01 514780 513772 512762 508753 505748 502747 498747 493748
      487749 483753 480759 478765 476772 476777 475784 473790
      470798 468802 467809 465830 460853 460857 462861 463866
      462871 456896 453904 451908 447912 442916 438913 433909
      429903 429896 430888 431882 433876 436866 438861 436859
      430838 427830 422822 414809 410804 408798 402792 398790
      393791 390793 387792 377785 368781 364780 360783 355791
      337822 333828 331833 328837 326844 324847 324853 323866
      322872 321877 320887 316896 315903 315911 315919 317922
      321926 322929 323933 322937 320938 315937 309941 304940
      301937 296932 293940 295943 294947 287953 277968 275971
      269973 269975 273977 279983 280985 279988 278991 275995
      275001 276005 280010 279015 277017 275015 271012 267011
      262012 258010 257004 253000 242999 237999 236004 236009
      237013 241020 248024 261026 264031 267033 273038 277039
      281037 285034 287034 288037 291041 295044 297040 296034
      298032 301032 308034 310034 312031 319028 325022 327018
      330014 336010 338006 339000 341996 340993 345987 352978
      357971 368959 372955 376956 382956 388957 397965 400970
      405971 409973 412973 420973 426969 430971 431978 427004
      426009 424013 421025 419031 418034 415036 412039 410044
      409049 408052 406053 401053 398054 397058 395058 390059
      386061 384058 374051 369050 364052 356053 349057 347057
      344059 341061 339060 337055 332054 326054 325057 325060
      325068 324075 319082 317085 315086 311085 305084 299083
      296081 292077 286073 280072 277069 265067 261063 258063
      257065 256069 259076 259092 261111 267115 276117 280117
      284114 293111 297110 301115 306121 310122 313119 319119
      321116 326113 330115 332118 336128 336134 339137 343136
      344133 347132 351132 353130 356120 355115 353112 348104
      345096 345093 348094 350099 353102 357102 360098 363095
      364092 360089
 0.01 360089 356085 357081 359080 360077 362074 364072 366074
      372088 374093 378095 382095 387098 390102 391105 390109
      385111 377116 373118 367119 365117 363118 361120 364124
      368127 371131 373139 377144 385146 388148 390152 389160
      387167 386175 386180 387182 387186 385188 383189 380188
      372183 364180 357180 348184 346187 346192 348196 349192
      352190 360192 369197 376204 385212 392219 398223 403222
      406222 407225 405226 398226 392227 386230 384231 381229
      377226 375223 376219 372217 363213 357211 350208 341200
      338200 337205 351229 356239 361247 364252 368256 375263
      381267 388269 400273 415277 429279 434278 439276 443275
      446273 450267 451262 462261 480252 485248 491245 492241
      492238 491228 489213 494205 500196 501194 501186 499168
      496157 498154 501152 504151 508151 509141 506134 502122
      500107 499102 496099 492094 491090 491086 495054 494045
      495032 495009 496973 496937 498928 501921 502916 503906
      505896 505885 505880 506877 506866 506858 507849 508835
      512804 514780
 0.01 473199 474196 474194 474191 474189 473187 473186 472184
      471185 470188 468190 468192 469195 470198 471198 472199
      473199
 0.01 469699 464698 462698 458701 455705 449711 441714 441716
      443715 446715 448717 449721 444728 453725 454719 455716
      456715 461706 467700 469699
 0.01 473076 472073 472071 471068 469070 469073 470075 471076
      472078 473076
 0.01 470066 471063 471061 471058 471056 471053 471051 470048
      468046 467048 467050 467053 468055 468058 468060 468063
      468065 469068 470066
 0.01 464006 465003 463001 463998 462996 461998 461001 461003
      462003 462006 463008 464006
 0.01 440750 439748 438750 435749 433749 432752 431754 432759
      432764 434764 436761 437758 439755 439753 440750
 0.01 437136 437134 438131 438129 437127 435126 434124 432126
      431128 431130 431131 433133 434135 434136 436138 437136
 0.01 384072 384067 383065 382063 381059 379058 375055 374054
      373057 373060 375062 378064 380065 381069 383072 384072
 0.01 345178 345168 342164 338162 327160 317159 309160 309165
      312167 314169 314172 314178 318180 321180 326177 329176
      336180 343183 345178
 0.01 361896 360887 358886 356888 353887 352881 354879 354874
      353866 352861 349861 348868 347876 347882 346886 346891
      344897 344915 343922 343930 345932 346930 347927 349921
      355912 358905 360902 360898 361896
 0.01 345079 345076 345074 344072 344070 342070 340067 339067
      338067 337069 337070 337071 338073 340076 341078 341080
      343081 345080 345079
 0.01 335769 333759 331752 330748 328744 324741 321733 317729
      314728 311730 310732 310737 311741 313745 314748 311749
      308749 306752 305759 307769 309775 309780 311783 312787
      315789 317790 320788 324790 326789 329786 332781 335769
 0.01 336075 335073 333075 332075 333075 334076 336075
 0.01 333815 332811 329810 322811 314812 310815 304818 300821
      297826 299832 303838 303843 299847 300855 305857 311857
      317855 320851 320842 320834 320830 321827 324823 330820
      333815
 0.01 295891 295887 292884 287881 283877 279871 275866 271863
      269861 264861 257862 251866 246864 242865 242869 241873
      239875 237877 237881 237884 240886 256885 263888 267891
      276890 282894 289894 295891
 0.01 258768 255762 252760 249761 244766 243773 244780 239785
      236790 234792 234796 234800 235804 238812 242815 244823
      247823 247819 249813 258805 259801 257800 254800 252800
      253798 256791 256785 257769 258768
 0.25 493817 493810 490809 488811 483819 478831 472838 470844
      470855 471862 471868 471876 470887 468898 466904 465912
      467923 469939 470947 471952 475956 478955 480953 481948
      482939 485909 486892 487886 488881 491867 492853 494836
      493820 493817
 0.25 483176 484169 483163 482158 481153 479149 474148 473153
      475158 476162 477168 478174 481178 483176
 0.25 472219 470213 464211 460211 455213 449212 442212 434215
      429214 425210 423215 419217 414219 412226 408229 404231
      399233 394238 394241 396246 401249 407250 417250 424251
      430251 439248 448246 457242 461238 460235 457233 446233
      442234 442231 444230 453227 458226 464226 468224 471220
      472219
 0.25 461180 461176 457175 456172 456167 460161 461155 460151
      458144 456142 454142 446154 440151 441156 450165 449176
      447180 441198 442203 443206 446208 448204 449199 452198
      454191 456186 458183 461180
 0.25 444651 442647 439646 431645 425646 421649 417652 416655
      415661 415667 415673 416677 419681 422685 427685 431682
      437677 440672 441668 442662 443657 444651
 0.25 460106 460096 459091 458083 455075 451065 450060 450051
      450041 450035 448026 448016 450003 448000 444002 432025
      420041 419047 422050 422055 421058 419062 417063 407066
      402066 398067 389069 388072 388075 390080 392080 397080
      400081 404085 406091 407094 407098 405104 401108 396112
      388116 385120 382126 383131 385133 389136 394138 397130
      400127 405127 409124 413125 417130 417136 417146 416152
      413156 411154 410149 406151 403156 407159 410165 414167
      419166 421159 425148 426143 426138 425132 425127 428119
      431115 435112 439112 443114 454112 459109 460106
 0.25 419100 418098 418097 417096 416095 416092 415091 414090
      414089 414090 412091 412092 411094 410096 411098 411099
      412101 413103 414103 416102 417102 418100 419100
 0.25 397210 397206 396203 394202 391201 387199 386198 383196
      379196 379198 380201 381203 383204 386207 390208 392209
      395210 397210
 0.25 409871 410859 407855 404857 400864 397871 395881 394889
      395897 397901 399902 402900 404896 406888 407880 409871
 0.25 378080 379076 378072 377069 376066 374064 371062 368062
      365063 366065 369068 371069 373071 374074 375078 376080
      378080
 0.25 364186 362185 361185 359184 357184 356185 355186 354186
      355187 357187 358187 360187 362187 364187 364186
 0.25 345116 347114 346112 346111 345109 344107 343105 341104
      340104 339106 339107 339109 339111 340113 342115 343116
      345116 345116
 0.25 340100 340098 340097 339095 338094 337093 337092 335092
      334093 333095 333097 334099 334100 336101 338101 339101
      340100
 0.25 311011 313005 313998 311993 308996 305998 302001 300004
      297008 295012 295016 297017 300016 305015 309013 311011
 0.25 299987 297987 296987 297989 299988 299987
 0.25 281082 281081 281080 279078 278076 276076 274077 272079
      272080 272081 272082 272083 273084 275085 277085 279085
      280084 281083 281082
 0.50 485859 485854 485851 484847 483844 480844 478846 477850
      476852 477857 477860 478865 480867 482868 484865 485861
      485859
 0.50 458219 457216 453215 447216 440216 435218 429219 424221
      425234 411231 406234 403236 402240 403243 407244 413244
      420243 427246 430245 432242 433237 434234 439229 444227
      451225 455222 458219
 0.50 476912 475910 474910 473912 474914 475913 476912
 0.50 450239 449238 447238 447239 449239 450239
 0.50 446240 445240 444239 443240 444241 445241 446240
 0.50 437651 435649 430648 426649 422651 420655 419661 422667
      424670 429670 432667 435662 436658 437653 437651
 0.50 433097 432097 432094 431093 430092 429091 428089 428088
      426088 424088 424089 425091 426093 427094 429095 431097
      432097 433097
 0.50 434059 435057 435054 435052 434050 433049 432049 430050
      430051 429054 428054 428056 426058 425060 426063 426064
      428064 430064 430063 431063 433061 433060 434059
 0.50 429108 428105 425104 420105 416109 412109 411107 407106
      405109 402113 406117 410117 413119 419121 422122 424120
      426115 426110 429108
 0.50 404878 404876 404874 403876 404878 404878
 0.50 402883 402880 402883 402883
 1.00 446221 445220 443220 441220 439221 439222 441222 442222
      443221 445221 446221
 1.00 412238 410237 409237 410238 412238 412238

$$





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