Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 281858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 29/0000 UTC THRU OCT 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS MOVING
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADIAN COAST THIS MORNING
WILL BE MOVING INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---CONTINUING INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUSTAINED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD--WEAKENING DURING
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE TO MID LEVEL
FLOW SPREADS INTO THE NORTHWEST.  PRIOR TO THE
WEAKENING---ADDITIONAL MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
FAR NORTHWEST CA--NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
WEST OF THE CASCADES AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES

THE CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER LAKES THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT THE U.S.---PUSHING INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO TONIGHT
AND NORTHERN QB DURING WEDNESDAY.  COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER EARLY DAY 1 FROM NORTHERN MN INTO THE
WESTERN U.P. BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA.  IN THE WAKE OF
THIS PRECIP AREA---LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS THE
LAKES.  THE WRAP AROUND/COMMA HEAD PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT---WITH LOCALLY MODERATE LAKE EFFECT TOTALS IN THE
FAVORED AREAS OVER THE U.P. OF MI---NORTHWEST L.P. OF MI---AND
FROM FAR NORTHEAST OH---FAR NORTHWEST PA INTO WESTERN NY STATE

NORTHEAST---APPALACHIANS---TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

A NARROW AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW LIFTING INTO CANADA.
THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE NORTHEAST---THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS---TN VALLEY AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION ALONG THIS FRONT---WITH THE DAY
1 QPF NOT DEVIATING FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND LIGHTER TOTALS IN THE .10"+ RANGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 521670 516663 511658 507650 506638 497622 494619 493619
      486621 480627 475631 473636 463652 454670 449676 443682
      423703 418710 413717 408723 402730 396736 391741 378753
      352779 344792 337804 330816 327820 325824 320832 315839
      311846 299863 286868 281871 279874 274880 277886 279889
      283890 289891 293891 296893 295895 293899 293903 291908
      291913 292923 292929 293933 297982 297989 299993 301994
      304990 313977 330954 337941 346925 350919 354910 363892
      369871 374854 378847 382840 385833 388827 396811 400805
      405799 411792 416785 427773 443760 449754 453751 457750
      470754 477756 482760 485768 489779 489784 488788 486791
      484796 484802 483810 483822 484829 482840 481846 478852
      475855 472860 470853 467849 463841 460837 459831 458825
      460821 462802 461796 459791 457788 454789 446802 445807
      443807 442813 444817 448819 450824 452831 450838 449842
      444849 441853 437854 428855 424855 420860 421863 425862
      428864 432864 435866 438866 445865 448862 451858 455862
      456865 460872 462877 462883 461890 461896 463901 466905
      471914 473926 474942 477949 479952 482950 487942 507922
      517910 521903 526896 532888 534885 536880 541860 544847
      547835 550830 552826 553820 553813 554808 554799 552792
      551783
 0.01 533219 534214 535209 534201 535196 534192 531185 521171
      514160 507151 498141 487132 475125 474121 476117 478110
      474097 472093 470092 468090 467092 463099 459101 457098
      453093 450092 449094 447094 444098 443101 442105 443113
      446120 449126 450129 449132 446133 445143 442148 438148
      436150 434157 433165 437172 438176 436179 434182 433188
      431198 428203 425208 423218 417221 417226 415229 409232
      403237 400242 400248 404252 408255 412256 426255 440254
      450253 456254 463255 471258 478262 484266 489270 498280
      502285 506286 509286 517276 520264 521256 520252 511225
      509222 508218 512219 516222 520226 526228 531224 533219
 0.01 492191 490183 484182 481183 477182 471181 467187 466193
      464196 464202 464207 468207 471206 476202 481198 488196
      492191
 0.01 486230 486228 485227 484227 482226 481226 481229 481231
      483232 485231 486230
 0.01 429786 429779 426784 423789 421794 418802 417809 418814
      421811 424803 427798 428793 429786
 0.25 548811 547797 546783 539756 537746 533736 528725 524716
      515701 508693 506689 502688 494691 489691 486689 482689
      478691 475696 476699 483701 486705 487709 491720 497730
      498733 496737 496743 498748 503757 506771 508782 509789
      508797 507809 506816 505822 499840 498846 498855 497863
      499870 501873 505873 512869 519863 525857 530851 534843
      545825 547819 548811
 0.25 530205 529199 527193 522183 515174 509167 504163 501162
      497164 495167 496171 497175 501181 506190 512199 520206
      523209 528207 530205
 0.25 516264 517254 515247 513239 510231 504219 501212 497206
      492204 486203 480206 474209 470211 465213 459215 452217
      440216 434219 427220 425221 425224 430228 432230 436230
      442229 447228 453225 456225 459227 459230 457232 452233
      446237 446241 450244 454245 459245 464245 469248 483257
      492266 500277 506281 508280 510276 511271 513269 516264
 0.25 499250 499246 497242 493235 490228 488225 484224 476222
      474222 472226 473229 476230 480234 482237 484236 488237
      490240 494247 499250
 0.25 498651 494641 491638 487638 478643 473650 469659 465667
      464670 467676 469676 473673 478666 484661 487664 492662
      493658 498654 498651
 0.25 491142 490139 487136 486135 482133 481132 478131 474130
      473133 473138 475139 477138 480138 484140 485141 488144
      491142
 0.25 485161 484158 482157 479156 475155 473153 471152 467151
      466154 467157 468161 469163 473165 476165 479166 482165
      484163 485161
 0.25 430245 431242 430239 427237 423237 420235 416235 412236
      409239 408242 411246 416248 421248 425248 429246 430245
 0.25 396803 417772 420761 412766 383798 369820 351842 343853
      336867 331881 330886 328913 327924 328930 333928 351901
      359885 361878 362869 368853 373840 381825 388814 396803
 0.50 543804 541793 538781 534755 532751 531751 529753 528756
      526754 523755 521758 515765 514768 513775 515790 515804
      515809 514814 511823 510828 510836 513846 515849 519848
      531838 536832 540823 542815 543804
 0.50 513260 513253 511245 510239 507232 502220 494210 488208
      482209 473214 471216 472218 479220 486222 489223 491226
      493232 496238 503249 505254 508259 511261 513260
 0.50 506274 502264 497255 491245 488240 485240 484242 482240
      479234 476232 471233 469238 471244 480250 485253 488257
      495266 502275 504276 506274
 0.50 419245 420242 419242 417241 415241 414239 412239 411240
      411242 411243 412243 413242 415242 417242 418244 419245
 0.50 393798 390799 387802 378811 365828 359836 356839 354841
      354845 352850 350856 349862 350867 348874 345884 346891
      347895 349895 354886 355879 353877 352872 358863 363852
      368842 373833 386813 390806 393798
 1.00 505242 504237 503234 502231 501227 500224 498221 497219
      493219 493222 493225 494229 495233 496236 497238 499240
      502242 505242
 1.00 483217 483216 483214 482213 480213 479215 480216 482217
      483217 483217
 1.00 479241 479239 478238 477235 476234 474234 474236 474237
      474238 474239 475241 476241 478243 479241
 1.50 499235 498232 498231 497229 497227 497226 496225 495226
      495228 495229 496231 496233 497234 498235 499235

$$





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