Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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481
FXUS04 KWBC 250700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 25/1200 UTC THRU SEP 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS....

SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PINCH OFF A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DYNAMICAL
AND THERMODYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR A MUCH-ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN
EVENT ACROSS WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST QPF IS STILL IN QUESTION
CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION/EVOLUTION WITH A STRONG
E-W INSTABILITY GRADIENT. IN FACT...SOME OF THE NEW HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS)...MOST NOTABLY THE NSSL-WRF AND
WRF-ARW...INDICATE A BIT MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION INTO THE
POOL OF GREATER DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE BACKING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM S-SE TO E-NE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 45-50 KTS...THE INCREASING DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITH TIME AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY CORFIDI
VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT THE STRONGEST CELLS MOVING FARTHER E-SE INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THIS TREND IS ALSO NOTED BY THE GFS AND
RGEM...THOUGH EVEN WITHOUT THE SAME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...GIVEN
THE STRONG EASTERLY (UPSLOPE) COMPONENT AND ANOMALOUS PW
ENVIRONMENT (2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)...DO NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE REMOVING THE 1-2+ INCH QPF OUT OF WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MIDLAND`S CWA...EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA WILL
MORE LIKELY FALL OVER A LONGER DURATION. AS A RESULT...WPC WILL
MOVE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA FARTHER EAST...AT
LEAST EAST OF FST (FORT STOCKTON) AND INK (WINK) WHERE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY (MUCAPES AOA 500 J/KG) WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT AND SUPPORTIVE OF THE MORE INTENSE SHORT TERM RAINFALL
RATES.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 496331 489328 485323 483317 486310 490304 494300 503288
      502283 501281 499277 498274 491262 488255 487246 492248
      497252 502258 505264 507272 509274 511268 513260 515258
      518261 521262 524261
 0.01 568924 564933 558936 554936 552939 552942 552947 551951
      553952 560947 565947 567949 566960 564965 561966 552966
      549966 547965 546968 542979 539991 538998 535000 530004
      527007 519013 517015 514015 508014 491013 481012 478004
      472984 477976 479973 479970 477970 473972 467972 465972
      465967 466961 464959 462952 460947 460942 457940 445929
      424934 412943 399952 395955 392958 387966 377979 367993
      361000 356007 350014 343024 341027 339034 336048 334058
      328062 326065 326069 327072 327079 321084 318095 314102
      309109 306108 302110 298107 295102 289094 285091 280088
      271084 267082 261081 254078 247072 245070 244065 243062
      245059 246054 248050 254045 257042 255038 250032 238021
      235013 233002 233989 231976 231965 235956 237952 241947
      248943 254943 256940 260934 262925 263915 264906 269904
      272906 277914 279916 284919 288918 288914 288909 288906
      286904 289893 290887 290881 293858 297857 296850 289852
      285846 282844 278843 270845 263842 258837 253829 240819
      231800 229795 228790 228783 230779 235773 247772 256768
      270766 288764 306760 315755 320752 321747 322740 325736
      329735 332738 334743 336749 337756 339772 348775 350777
      351783 353787 356783 360780 365779 367777 366775 363769
      365764 366765 369766 371769 375776 380784 382789 381794
      376789 372795 371802 371805 375806 377810 374815 372822
      369829 364830 360833 356842 351849 345847 343842 340838
      339832 336826 334824 333814 333811 331810 326811 322813
      320817 316861 320870 325876 324887 327894 330898 333905
      335908 337906 340902 352885 363879 373870
 0.01 373870 387855 400840 406833 413825 416821 420818 428812
      450805 459802 468796 473795 478794 488797 505804 513807
      522812 530817 534819 533824 538825 543825 553824 558828
 0.01 539208 540199 538189 536182 530178 526173 524171 520170
      510173 508178 510182 512184 513189 510191 502188 497188
      495190 495195 497201 501202 503205 506207 508210 512216
      523219 529221 535218 537213 539208
 0.01 512255 513250 511245 509238 505231 502228 501224 497218
      495215 492214 489216 488221 492225 496234 500240 503247
      507253 512255
 0.01 479241 479238 477235 476234 475235 475237 475240 477241
      478241 479241
 0.01 482690 480681 477675 474670 473667 469668 468674 470681
      470688 467694 466697 467702 472701 477699 480696 480693
      482690
 0.01 338093 339091 337088 336084 336080 336077 332077 331077
      330081 332082 333086 333088 335091 337093 338093
 0.25 545893 545873 544866 543864 540859 532850 523843 504829
      497825 491821 485819 478818 466819 458820 452823 440828
      430835 421842 415847 410851 399862 396868 394876 383897
      376909 373916 370920 355943 350947 345950 330954 319953
      310946 299937 297935 294935 290933 280925 273924 270929
      272938 276945 277949 276954 270959 266962 262965 261969
      263972 266977 265985 268990 269995 268999 262002 254004
      252006 251009 250014 255019 260029 264035 267042 261051
      258057 256059 256062 262065 267069 272071 280073 285077
      289083 294088 297089 299087 304083 310081 314077 315072
      315067 317063 320060 329053 331047 332037 337024 339016
      341009 344003 347998 351991 357985 366975 373967 380958
      384952 386948 386943 384939 382938 380936 381934 388922
      391916 396911 401905 404899 404894 406892 413888 424889
      429893 432897 438900 442905 445911 450915 464919 470922
      474929 477937 481942 483949 487953 492957 495961 497968
      500973 502975 505977 511978 518979 524978 530976 534972
      538967 541958 540949 539939 536917 542907 544905 544900
      545893
 0.25 363816 363811 361812 359814 357815 355817 354819 351822
      350824 350828 353830 355828 356826 358823 361821 362818
      363816
 0.25 319795 320787 317780 313777 308773 306776 305780 305784
      305791 304797 306803 309809 314805 317800 319795
 0.25 312886 311871 309856 308849 306844 303837 303829 301825
      296823 285819 277815 271813 270810 271806 270802 268798
      263793 258795 253797 251802 248807 248811 249813 268822
      276826 290826 294828 298832 301836 302844 301849 302855
      304861 305869 306884 309888 312886
 0.50 538877 538871 535865 528858 519851 510846 496833 486829
      480828 474828 463829 450832 439837 434848 430852 426854
      415858 410861 406865 406868 409870 413873 414877 419879
      426880 428885 434887 439885 442880 449877 458875 463873
      469872 476872 481874 482877 481879 478886 475889 473893
      476898 477902 472900 469902 473905 479907 480915 482920
      487931 496939 499942 501952 502956 508955 512952 514950
      517951 521952 525958 526962 528963 533961 536957 536952
      534936 533927 530919 530915 531912 533904 535898 535890
      538877
 0.50 379925 380921 378918 375921 372925 370929 368932 365936
      363941 361945 362948 364949 368945 370941 371938 374934
      377930 378926 379925
 0.50 375954 374951 368951 363952 360955 352960 343966 335962
      326960 304962 303951 301946 298943 293941 289943 287948
      286954 288957 292958 296961 296966 294980 293985 289989
      274998 267005 264010 263015 265023 268027 273029 277032
      281036 285044 290051 290056 289061 288065 289068 293072
      297074 300075 303074 307066 312058 322053 325049 327044
      333024 336013 340002 344992 350985 357976 363969 370962
      375954
 0.50 316796 316792 315789 314785 312783 311784 310788 309791
      308794 308797 309801 311801 314801 315798 316796
 0.50 283962 281960 277961 276962 273964 271966 272970 274972
      275973 277972 279970 281966 282964 283962
 0.50 278821 277821 276821 275820 274819 273820 274820 275822
      276822 278822 278821
 0.50 268804 265802 263801 259802 256803 254804 252806 251810
      253812 257813 259813 262813 263811 264809 266806 268804
 1.00 525934 523926 518919 513915 507913 499912 495913 494916
      499919 505923 507925 509929 511933 514934 520934 522935
      525934
 1.00 492851 492845 488843 481842 474842 468846 463849 456854
      455858 458860 466861 474860 480859 484859 489857 492851
 1.00 431869 432866 431866 429866 428866 426867 428869 430869
      431869 431869
 1.00 428869 426867 424869 424870 426870 428869
 1.00 333004 334997 333991 328980 327969 323966 319966 317967
      314970 311974 305983 299989 290995 282999 275005 271009
      270014 272019 276022 284027 293033 299039 306047 311049
      314049 320048 322044 325031 329018 333004
 1.00 258807 256807 256808 258807 258807
 1.50 328001 321990 319986 316984 311984 308986 303990 297995
      284001 276011 275016 277018 283022 297029 301033 306040
      310044 315045 318043 320039 320034 322024 325017 327008
      328001
 2.00 324012 323006 319001 316997 311993 306994 300996 291002
      286004 282008 279013 279016 281018 292025 303030 308039
      312041 315041 316037 316029 318022 321018 324012
 3.00 320014 320009 318007 316008 313006 306004 301003 297004
      291006 285010 283012 284016 290020 296023 305025 309025
      312023 317018 320014
 4.00 313015 313014 311014 309015 311017 312016 313015
 4.00 310017 307015 305015 302013 300011 297010 296010 293011
      291013 290016 292018 294019 298019 300018 303017 305019
      309019 310017

$$





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