Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 241859
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 25/0000 UTC THRU FEB 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES

THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE ONTARIO/QB BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
A NARROW COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP/SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM NORTHEAST IA
INTO---EASTERN WI.  HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN U.P. OF MI WHERE NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ENHANCE TOTALS.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP DAY 1 DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MI ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE L.P. OF MI.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

EASTERN LAKES/UPPER OH/UPPER TN VALLEYS---EASTWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST

TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
LOW---STRENGTHENING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN LAKES/UPPER OH
VALLEY/UPPER TN VALLEY---ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.  WHILE THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE---THE COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES---STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MORE SPRING LIKE
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL BE FORMING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND SINKING SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
THIS STORM WILL NOT HAVE A ANOMALOUS PW SOURCE---WITH PW VALUES
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS FROM THE OREGON
CASCADES---WEST TO THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND SOUTH INTO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.  THE BEST UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED INTO COASTAL
NW CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON WHERE .25-.50"+ AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.   ELSEWHERE---LIGHTER TOTALS IN THE
.10-.25" RANGE EXPECTED.

INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
ROCKIES---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS FROM SEPARATE STREAMS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 365289 368282 371271 375263 380256 382254 385255 390259
      395260 401260 414258 422257 429254 440250 445249 451250
      466250 470251 472247 474242 476243 478243 479239 477233
      470238 463235 454233 451233 448231 448227 450225 452223
      454221 454218 446216 441217 433214 425202 420183 421176
      418173 414179 411179 410176 408168 402163 402160 403157
      406156 409153 408149 405151 402153 401150 401145 400141
      397138 392135 386133 383133 382139 378148 381154 387165
      391172 392179 395184 401189 402194 405196 405206 393200
      388196 381194 379195 378199 379204 382205 387207 390210
      396216 400220 401223 397224 390221 385218 378218 374218
      371220 359229 352237 347241 343248 338259 337270
 0.01 545817 539779 539773 537769 536755 534746 532736 531733
      530728 529719 525702 515680 503656 483641 475634 465635
      464635 461636 457639 449648 445660 443667 442675 441679
      439682 435688 423698 419697 416700 415708 413715 411728
      410733 406736 378743 367752 362757 357761 350768 347771
      344775 343781 341784 342789 342792 344794 348797 352800
      358800 360802 358805 353808 335829 328836 325841 319844
      302854 294861 295864 297866 305866 309866 311866 310869
      305873 295881 281898 282904 287905 297899 305894 309890
      313888 313892 309898 309901 313901 319905 327904 338900
      345893 353886 360881 364876 369874 383871 388868 396867
      399865 403866 400875 400883 399888 402901 405908 408910
      411911 410914 408919 408937 409940 410943 412945 416945
      424945 428942 435938 440933 449925 452923 455918 459915
      462911 465907 470903 475900 478896 482890 485886 506867
      519851 527841 530838 533833 545817
 0.01 525187 524172 524166 521162 520159 518157 513153 510149
      506147 495129 489129 489135 483129 479127 472125 470129
      471135 473141 478141 483143 486146 501152 508160 510164
      510168 508167 504164 500163 498164 498169 500175 506185
      512192 514195 519192 523191 525187
 0.01 498077 499059 496042 493031 490026 488020 484019 481018
      480013 480004 478001 475002 468010 467023 468029 470037
      474041 479043 478049 480052 479056 481063 482067 484072
      483076 482080 479082 475081 472078 474076 474071 459059
      457063 456067 454070 452071 449071 447069 442068 434072
      437075 443077 445080 448082 448086 446088 442089 440088
      438092 436095 433092 430089 427090 429094 422113 412113
      412117 417116 420117 422119 425124 429123 434123 436119
      438118 441119 447128 470103 471098 472096 477092 482097
      485103 489105 492104 493104 495100 496094 495090 496082
      498077
 0.01 485166 483160 482157 479155 474151 471147 466142 463143
      461143 462146 461151 463157 466162 469168 474167 481168
      485166
 0.01 451046 452042 452039 450034 449032 447031 445029 442028
      440028 438031 438035 438038 441041 443041 444046 446048
      448049 450049 451046
 0.01 419067 419062 417061 414059 411061 408057 404055 398057
      395057 393059 391060 387060 384060 383063 386069 385072
      379072 376075 375080 377080 381078 383076 387076 390080
      391083 395084 400086 403080 406076 414076 417071 419067
 0.01 408117 409108 409103 408100 404107 400108 394110 389113
      386118 386122 390119 396115 403116 408117
 0.01 372053 372050 370050 369050 368050 367051 365051 363051
      361051 361052 359053 359054 359056 361056 363056 365056
      366055 368055 370055 372053 372053
 0.25 516719 515708 512703 509700 500699 495697 489700 486698
      484695 479685 476678 471671 468670 464671 462677 461683
      460696 460701 461709 462714 462718 459724 457726 449730
      443733 425739 412743 401746 392748 384752 376763 372771
      369774 368779 368782 370783 376781 381779 386779 390781
      391784 387790 378803 372810 368818 356834 347847 343853
      342856 342861 346863 350863 358863 368860 379855 392848
      405840 412835 415832 420830 441825 449823 451824 454827
      456831 457838 455843 451845 448847 446851 446856 449860
      452863 453867 452872 451876 452881 454884 457886 463892
      467895 472890 477883 481872 484859 485854 488851 491848
      493848 497848 498843 501834 500826 500819 500813 498799
      498794 499787 501781 504775 510758 514749 516740 516727
      516719
 0.25 431243 428239 423237 414231 410232 406234 396236 393234
      390231 387229 383229 379231 378237 379240 384245 389247
      401250 412251 421249 426248 430246 431243
 0.25 370254 372247 372241 369238 367237 360242 355250 350260
      346269 346273 348277 355281 359282 361276 364266 369256
      370254
 0.50 509732 510723 507716 496714 492715 488716 483715 477717
      467723 462728 457731 438738 426743 420745 415748 406754
      406766 405772 402779 399784 395789 382802 382806 380810
      376816 374821 368829 361836 358840 356846 356854 356856
      360858 365857 369855 378850 396835 411825 415821 420819
      433816 439814 444814 447817 453817 458817 463814 468809
      470803 473798 476795 479790 480784 482779 486775 493764
      499756 504747 508738 509732
 0.50 471878 471877 470875 469873 467871 466871 465873 465876
      465878 466881 468882 469882 471880 471878 471878
 0.50 426242 424241 422240 421239 419238 417238 416237 414237
      412238 411240 410242 411244 413245 414245 416245 418245
      420245 421245 422245 423245 425244 426242
 0.50 404242 403240 403239 401238 399238 398238 397238 397241
      397242 399243 400243 402244 404242
 0.50 389238 389236 387235 387236 388238 389239 389238
 1.00 485743 482737 479734 467734 464733 460735 458741 452752
      461759 463761 464765 463772 459785 459790 463790 466786
      470774 475760 483751 485743

$$





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